Turniper
2d ago
We've had this conversation before, like 20 months ago, and you detailed your many limitations, though their specifics escape me now. I still maintain that if you can write with this clarity and frequency on the motte you are theoretically capable of earning income through intellectual work, you just need to find a way to cross the gulf between it impacting your benefits and it being enough to live on. There are huge numbers of jobs that can be done entirely via interacting with a computer or phone these days. I personally have made money writing software, tutoring high schoolers, and accepting donations for fiction. LLMs are changing many of those niches, but at least for the moment near as many opportunities are being created as are being destroyed, though that may not hold forever. But for the moment, if you want freedom, you'll need to earn income. That's the way the world works. If this 'slaughter' you cannot speak of arrives, well, that might change as some nation begins accepting US asylum applications. But until then, not a single nation is interested in acquiring dependents with no ties to their citizenry.
Turniper
5d ago
Design isn't the bottleneck though. We have designed fabs before, most of the hard part is solved. It's actually building these massive facilities, supplying them with water and energy, keeping them at pressure, staffing them with technicians, and troubleshooting the million small issues that can eat into yield ratios that is hard. It would take some world changing advancements in robotics or AI just leapfrogging our current understanding of how to build chips for them to make a dent in the difficulty of the process.
Turniper
9d ago
Yep. I think it's possible to go further back if the relevant relatives are still alive, because actually claiming citizenship resets the generation gap (I don't have the rules open, but I'm pretty sure if your great grand-parent was born in Ireland, and you got your grandparent to claim Foreign Birth Registry citizenship, the grandchild would then be eligible despite the grandparent not being a citizen at the time of the parent's birth, let alone yours. I might be wrong on that though). But overall it's a very generous amount of diaspora citizenship, and really worth claiming for those eligible.
Turniper
11d ago
Without savings, the ability to claim us benefits abroad, ancestry, or changing that disabled status, nobody. Ireland would take you if you were irish. Paraguay and portugal if you had even moderate savings. Plenty of places if you're self supporting. You're probably stuck in the US if you can't find any paying task you can do.
Turniper
15d ago
I like Bad Bunny as a halftime show but that's mostly because the field of 'music sufficiently popular with the average american to be a halftime show' is a pretty low bar for me these days. Like, we're never getting a halftime show that's all Sabaton singing about the US in WW2, or any of the Christian Rock bands I don't mind (The most mainstream/patriotic options on my playlist). So, Bad Bunny is... Fine? Don't love his lyrics, but the beat's good and the show was aight. No complaints.
Turniper
19d ago
They'd probably know something's up if you show with a raging boner. The goal is a big hog not a tentpole.
Turniper
21d ago
Yeah, I'm really not pleased about this and if we see a shutdown over it the odds of me voting D in '28 will probably slip from medium back to low. Really need to see some actual compromises about actually doing immigration enforcement from Dems before I'll be happy with any further restrictions on how we execute it.
Turniper
23d ago
I do greatly outperform the market. I'm also not crazy enough to aim for several hundred percent a year returns. That is how one under performs the market.
Turniper
29d ago
No, that's why we got it. It isn't my favorite, not a huge smother everything with cheese guy, and that place is a little expensive for the serving size, but it's good grub.
Turniper
29d ago
Amazon. I currently post on Royal Road/Patreon/other forum sites, but Amazon and Audible are pretty much the only games in town for self publishing unless you go full indie and sell ebooks off your own website. There are other options, but they generally don't have a fraction of the reach.
Turniper
29d ago
Every 20% rise is more pressure than the last. I'm predicting a peak no later than another 40-50% climb. I've no idea when that will happen, or if it'll end in a level off or a crash, but at that price speculative pressure will begin to crowd out actual applications that use silver like solar panels. The price level might hold for a while, but fundamentals win out on a time scale of years.
Turniper
29d ago
My understanding is silver is spiking because of: 1) Solar demand is pretty price insensitive, it had a ton of room to run before they seriously considered swapping out silver for copper. 2) Mining quantity is pretty fixed, it's very often a byproduct of other mining operations. Mines take ages to start up, and even massive spikes just cannot materialize new supply in the short term. 3) Retail demand is narrative driven and price insensitive, has been waiting for a spike for years, and is inclined to continually double down.
My guess is that we'll see another 20-40% rise before the run stops, and then a 50-60% pullback, possibly even deeper when some panel operations shift to copper, across 3-4 years. I don't think it's a concrete sign of de-dollarization. Just a product of massive amounts of money chasing any gains it can find and there being little except AI demanding major investment at this moment.
At these prices, I think silver is a terrible store of value. It's going down eventually.
Turniper
29d ago
Yesterday I dragged my fiancee to the gym. She dragged me to half priced books and Venezuelan food after we showered. This is generally considered to be what humans call a 'date'.
If one of us wished to drag the other person to an event they were not interested in, like a boardgame night, or an Emily Autumn concert, we would simply not do that and live would go on. The whole process is a negotiation. We each engage with the other's interests because we are interested in the other person. Like in any negotiation, not being willing to allow the other parties to walk all over you does a great deal to prevent the other parties from walking all over you.
As a male who likes the occasional boardgame, I would agree that regularly getting dragged to board game nights is big beta male energy if you don't. My fiancee likes plenty of nerdy stuff, but she doesn't like those, so she generally hangs out with someone else and watches anime instead whenever I attend one.
Turniper
29d ago
After getting an offer, I elected to go the self pub route with my first story (A different story than I got the offer on actually, because I didn't feel confident finishing that series). I got what was apparently pretty decent numbers on my offer (I can look up the breakdown by medium if you want em), but even then the percentiles are kinda brutal. I think the highest was ebooks at 30 or 35 percent after platform fees. I know the sales and marketing efforts of publishing houses are supposed to be better than what most authors manage on their own, but I really did not feel comfortable signing away very fixed and definite rights and shares of profit in exchange for marketing efforts that were highly subjective and discretionary. Obviously the publisher is suppose to be aligned with your interests, because every sale benefits them even more than it does you, but I just don't love the model in this day and age where up-front printing costs have gone from 5-6 figures to basically zero. Even with audiobook production being included and a small advance (5k per book), it didn't feel worth it to me. So, I'll be self publishing my first novel in June. I wish you the best with your submissions though, it's a harsh game if you're not one of the big genres that they're currently pushing.
You just want a large list? Data entry, content moderation, sales, repackaging AI generated images into book covers, actually making book covers, teaching english via zoom, customer support, all the ancillary shit software companies need that isn't code like project management, basically 70% of finance and insurance, streaming, selling curated AI generated porn. I'm sure there's more but that's all I can think of immediately without googling.
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