Turniper
14hr ago
Uh... No, no it is not. The second amendment guarantees citizens the right to maintain the capabilities to come at the king, it does not free them from consequences if they miss.
Turniper
5d ago
Path of Exile 2. The new patch is just so peak. It finally feels like a true sequel to the first, even with half the character classes missing.
Turniper
10d ago
I am just a non-miserable tightwad. There's very little that costs money that I want and yet do not have. Most of my big spending is A) The house, and B) Nice groceries (Which is just not that large).
For a single person, it's really not complicated. You identify what you care about, and what those things cost, and compare the cost benefit of them being part of your life vs the additional years you need to work to afford those drinks/that boat/the next step up the housing ladder.
Where it gets complicated is when your working partner comes into it. Ultimately, you really need to understand your wife here. Does she support you retiring early? If yes, does she actually, or will she get resentful about it? Will it make a difference if you're pursuing a hobby seriously or taking care of the kids rather than getting high and playing games all day? Does she expect you to support the family entirely when kids come into the picture? If so, is that gonna be just while she's on maternity leave, or is there an unspoken expectation that she'll transition to full time caregiver while you win bread? You really need a firm understanding of how she feels about your money vs our money vs her money, and how much she enjoys work, if you're even gonna consider stepping away.
I am married, semi-fired, and expecting kids in the next few years, so I've got some experience here. My wife is very much uncommonly devoted to separate finances and does not feel entitled to my money. The flip side of this, is despite being unemployed, I do still pay more than 50% of the household expenses. Additionally, we are both naturally quite frugal, so there's few 50-50 travel expenses that I'd balk at. It helps that her limiting factor on travel is available days off, while mine is money, so there's not a lot of pressure to go on more trips. On top of that, I do a lot of household labor, and expect to be primary caregiver a sizable part of the time when kids get added to the picture.
In your case, with the massive income disparity, and your wife enjoying spending more than you, I'd just add half a million to your fire number (Unless it's already so large you'd be able to afford her quitting and traveling as much as you want). It's just gonna make sense for you to do more earning for the family with your large earning capacity.
Turniper
10d ago
Nice. I've been driving my 07 for almost 18 years now, and I love it to death. Just an absolutely bulletproof car, I basically give it the absolute minimum possible maintenance and nothing breaks except the UV-vulnerable plastic and the usual belts. I keep saying I'll sell it when the next problem comes up, but I think outside fluids and state inspection it's gotten 500 bucks in maintenance since 2021.
Turniper
10d ago
No, I don't really think we are. It's definitely possible we could get a 2001 style sector driven crash if AI growth slows, but I don't think there's any structural leverage for a 2008 style devaluation. The two inflated assets are 1) The US stock market. and 2) The US dollar. Yeah, nobody in 08 thought the housing sector could crash, but I don't see any scenario where the dollar falls more than 20% right about now, and the US stock market's insane valuations are driven by a number of companies with genuine chances of reshaping much of the world economy. There's still plenty of cash on the sidelines willing to move in if valuations drop.
If you wanna blackpill, my bigger concerns would be structural unemployment for the bottom 60% of people in the coming decades, and inflation hollowing out middle class wages following increasing salary pressure from the capital and well earning professional classes. I don't think the bubble explodes. I think it keeps growing and largely pulls money upward out of wage earner hands.
Anyway, if you wanna be prepared, the advice is basically the same as it's always been. Have a big pile of cash, your housing situation locked in, and be able to weather a sudden job loss (Back up plan, second household income, or savings).
This led me down an interesting rabbit hole as to how this guy keeps making movies if he's so bad. Apparently in his early career the tax and subsidy combinations offered by the german government were so substantial films could be major flops and still be financial successes. He claimed subsidies were often as much as 50% of production costs and any losses were full tax writeoffs, so it was at worst basically a risk free investment. Meanwhile his 'more successful' films that actually broke even at the box office would sometimes sell 3-4x their total box office run in home video sales, House of the Dead alone is likely more than half of the money his films have ever made. A lot of this information eventually sources back to the man himself though (After laundering through interview -> wikipedia), so possibly worth taking with a grain of salt.
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