UwU
2yr ago
Other than AEO, I like reddit. It has great mobile app support, and most of my interests are aggregated in one place for convenient lunch-time viewing. This migration will definitely increase the friction of participation of existing mottizens (at least for me personally) and attracting new ones, but I understand it had to be done, eventually. I hope it succeeds!
UwU
4mo ago
If I had complete control, I would continue the intelligence sharing, military materiel transfer to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. No security guarantees, no troops on the ground, no direct air support, intel is fine. In terms of magnitude, I would probably give more because Ukraine is currently losing, and they'll need additional help to hold the line. The goal is to bleed Russia and teach them that aggressive wars do not pay. Which makes it less likely that they will think about trying the same against the Baltics and Finland, who are actually NATO members. Which in turn makes it less likely for the US and Russia to go to war against each other down the line.
In terms of falsifiability, I guess if it's discovered that Ukrainian oligarchs are squirreling away a large portion of the aid money, that would make further aid a bad idea. Some corruption is expected since Ukraine was itself corrupt, but if I had to put a number to it, we'll need to rethink it if more than 20% is actually ending up in someone's swiss bank account.
From my perspective, I see almost an equal amount of Ukraine skeptics and Ukraine supporters on this forum.
UwU
24d ago
What I'm okay with: Enforcing immigration laws, deporting illegal immigrants. I'm fine with "breaking up families", arresting people at their workplaces, and deporting parents of citizen children with them in tow.
What I'm not okay with: Masked men in plainclothes forcibly ushering people into unmarked vans. As long as they are unmasked and wearing uniforms, or unmasked, plainclothed and are obligated to give their full name and badge/ID upon request, I'd have no problem with it. Yes they may lose the intimidation factor, but it's a necessary trade-off compared to normalizing mask wearing thugs kidnapping people off the streets.
UwU
3mo ago
Some unordered reasons:
-
They call themselves OpenAI and yet nothing is open. They don’t publish research or release open source or open weight models.
-
They positioned themselves as a non-profit to get clout and talent and later reneges.
-
They charge an insane amount compared to other companies to price anchor because they want the SOTA models to only be accessible by elites.
-
They hide the thinking traces from their thinking models and ban people who try to figure out their methods with prompt engineering.
And then tack on “they hold back revolutionary features until their competitor releases their own”
UwU
3mo ago
Trump's tariffs would be a story anyway even if the left somehow did it. The order of magnitude is simply not comparable.
And Yunseo Chung, who was on a student visa and accused of an actual crime though at this point it is not clear if this is a pretext or not.
As far as I can tell, Yunseo Chung held a green card and has been in the country since she was 7. This is reported by many news sources and I've yet to find one that disputes this. She was arrested for a misdemeanor "obstructing governmental administration" as part of a protest.
This is what I have a problem with. For illegals, we can make the argument that they were breaking and entering, they were squatters, they broke the social contract so we can deport them with minimal due process. Fine. For immigrants on visitor visas like students or tourists, we can make the argument that they are guests, and it's fine to deport them with minimal due process because they have lives back home. Fine. I'm not okay with this being applied to permanent residents. For Yunseo, she's been living here since she was 7, it's literally uprooting her from the life she's ever known to a foreign country she may not have a connection with. And for what? A misdemeanor arrest? If she was illegal, it's an easier pill to swallow, but she followed the rules, and she's authorized to be a permanent resident here in the US. I understand the law is set up so Sec State can deport anyone he wishes, but I believe it is unjust to do it on such flimsy rationale in this case.
Further, I don't believe this will be ultimately beneficial for red-tribe, but this is just my theory. From a cursory search, there are about 13 million green card holders in the United States. Some of them lean blue and some of them lean red. Before this administration, there was an understanding that permanent residency status was "generally safe" and there were very limited circumstances where you could be deported. Thus the practical difference between green card holders and citizens were small, and the ones going for citizenships were motivated by their love for America (among other things), which made that set of people lean red. But now there's a new motivation. If green card holders who lean blue believe they are more likely to face arbitrary or pretextual deportation, this provides a strong motivation of self-preservation for them to seek citizenship. Gaining citizenship as a green card holder is almost trivial compared to an illegal or a visitor gaining citizenship, so we can expect to see an increase in blue-leaning eligible voters in the future.
UwU
2yr ago
To add, it shows how the mere accusation of racism or antisemitism is the left's superpower. It forces the accused to go on the defense and presumes some guilt. Any nuance or misunderstanding on the accused goes out the window. You can destroy someone's reputation this way even if it was a mistake. [...]
Someone can argue "what Kanye said was really egregious" but people have been cancelled, banned for less and it does not change the automatic presumption of guilt.
Does it show that, if what Kanye did was really egregious? It took several weeks of continuous bad behavior for his large business partners to drop him, not a mere accusation, or presumption of guilt. He doubled down, and then doubled down again. He even gloated that "[he] can say anti-sematic shit and Adidas can't drop [him]" before Adidas actually dropped him.
This method of argument reminds me of certain types of misleading posts on reddit. Where, even after they get debunked, the echo-chamber will say "yeah, this example may be misleading/fake, but it still highlights the obvious problem that exists today!"
UwU
2yr ago
The reason why this won’t be too escalatory is that this incident is 99% chance accidental and not intentional, whether it’s a Russian missile or an Ukrainian AD failure.
That conclusion strikes me as confirmation bias, because both Denmark and Germany are already in NATO. Why does Sweden need to pay NATO this “ransom” by breaking away from the international team? Maybe you can give a contrived explanation, but it may be too far fetched to be persuasive to those who don’t already have “NATO is behind this” as a prior.
UwU
2yr ago
So many words, and so little truth and substance. Everything verifiable in your post about the war is a lie, and others are just inane ramblings.
Zelensky admitted 200-500 deaths a day, that's probably 1000-1500 total casualties once you include wounded. That's not sustainable. Their squads that go around black bagging people for the front are going to become predictable and conscripts will dry up.
Zelensky said that? You got a source for it? The max I remember was 50-100 a day during the most intense fighting when Ukraine was pursuing a ridiculous no-step-back strategy in Sievierodonesk. Considerable casualties for sure but 4 times less than your lies. That difficult period lasted about a month.
You got a source for the black bagging squads? If this is common occurrence responsible for any appreciable amount of conscripts then we'd have hundreds of telegram videos as proof.
And every neo-con or belicose commentator is like this once you ignore the high energy announcements and get into their analysis and predictions its "Ya no its exciting they could pull off this crazy dramatic campaign we've never seen signs of them doing and it would change everything ever... but odds are they won't and they'll get ground down and lose everything slowly and painfully... but hey we still bleed Russia and stop the Germans from pivoting to them, so a US geostrategic victory"
Every time, as soon as you dig into one of these more serious commentators that stake their influence on major us intellectuals taking them seriously, they'll spend ten minutes hedging, praising the UKrainians bravery, lay out some absurd tele-lazer snipe Zelensky could do if he levels up his mech to 5 stars... and then they say "But they need something like that, because as is they're going be ground down militarily and economically until they collapse"
Yeah? Who are those credible commentators you are referring to? Michael Kofman? Dara Massicot? It's easy to make up shit when it's unspecific.
UwU
1mo ago
I guessed like 10 years. 400 years is insane! My first impression is that this is malicious compliance by some disillusioned engineer to highlight the absurd state of the project.
I really don't understand why he added "Sounds Chinese, doesn't it?" It alienates Chinese Americans and Youngkin supporters, and makes him look buffoonish for... no perceived purpose at all?
UwU
2yr ago
I'm not a Ukrainian so I don't really have attachments to Crimea or Eastern Ukraine, so I'm perfectly fine to let Putin keep Crimea and 2014-era Donbas for the war to end, but it's not a realistic compromise for any of the parties here.
Putin just annexed Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts in addition to Donbas, so to Russia, they are officially Russian territory. The annexation of non-separatist oblasts is the Caesar crossing the Rubicon moment for Putin. He's staking the Russian future and legitimacy on this, and there's no going back.
Same thing for the Ukrainians. Before the annexation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, maybe Ukraine can still believe Russian war aims were limited, and that they were only interested in securing the separatists regions, but no longer. It's very clear to the Ukrainians that Russia is going for the shameless land grab, and there's no stopping Russia from annexing Odessa, Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk next. If they settle for a ceasefire now, there's always the looming future invasion, suppressing any foreign reconstruction investments. After all, why help Ukraine rebuild when it can all be torn down in the next Russian invasion? Therefore, if Ukraine settles for a ceasefire now, its long term prospects are bleak and they'll only be inviting Russia to take another bite out of their territory later. So, the Ukrainians must get a decisive result for their national sovereignty and their future. Either they win, or they die as a nation.
With these two factors combined, I don't see an end to the war any time soon without some miracle, and it's very depressing.
UwU
1mo ago
The second sentence doesn't strictly follow the first. Stealing from an out-group (e.g. the faceless forgetful hotel patron) is not an indication they'll do the same to an in-group. On the other hand, cheating is necessarily harming an in-group person (the romantic partner), and as the current romantic partner you should be worried.
Think of the "I against my brother; I and my brother against my cousin; I, my brother, and my cousin against the world" proverb.
UwU
3mo ago
Isn't the corollary to this that we should also ban teenage wrestling and gymnastics in addition to puberty blockers?
UwU
3mo ago
This is likely just downstream from the fact that black people have an outsized influence on blue-tribe politics compared to other racial minorities. When asians and hispanics see POC gets rebranded as BIPOC and the media loudly champion Harris's plan to empower black men, it's no surprise that they feel less valued than their peers.
UwU
2yr ago
Which, if we know about, then Russia would have known about it as well. I've read UK ships were in that area, too. This could have been done with an underwater drone filled with explosives. The area could have been chosen because of the activities of the US/UK and others in the area, in order to create doubt.
Also Russia had a naval vessel there a week after the Americans. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-warship-violated-danish-territorial-waters-baltic-danish-military-2022-06-17/
There's evidence pointing in many directions. It's completely inconclusive.
UwU
3mo ago
I can agree with most of this and I believe you are internally consistent. My worry is that there's a negative incentive here. There's nothing to disincentivize the government to do the wrong thing in your framework. I believe the US government should be compelled to reverse its actions if it accidentally removes someone who has the authorization to be in the country and ships them off to a foreign prison (regardless of whether the government can be compelled to do so in the current legal framework). Otherwise, the government is not disincentivized to commit more "oopsies" in the future, and it becomes much more likely to incorrectly ship people to foreign prisons, causing tremendous individual harm to people who may not deserve it.
UwU
2yr ago
It would be nice of you to expand on the specifics of how Putin hasn’t even unleashed his full military might, because he’s certainly using his Air Force. We have photographic and video evidence of dozens of Russian jets being shot down in this war, and in fact several just in the past week.
UwU
2yr ago
So, not Zelensky, and not 200-500 deaths with 1000-1500 total casualties? Your sources support none of your initial claims, but you still post them as if they do. How would you feel if I claimed Putin verified 20k dead Russian soldiers but had to walkback to Shoigu saying 6k dead Russian soldiers? Would you think I was being intellectually honest? The same applies here.
On the topic of forceful conscription, it's just a single video of soldiers bullying civilians without context. Your initial claim is that an appreciable amount of the 700k mobilized forces were pressganged off the streets, so the evidentiary standard needs to be higher.
UwU
3mo ago
I actually agree that these measures are pretty draconian, but its hard to feel like "due process" is a major concern.
It'd be MUCH, MUCH easier to get Due Process if these folks, you know, followed the process and entered the country via the channels established to keep track of them and grant them status to be here.
"I intentionally skipped the procedural steps that would have established my right to stay in the country, but don't you DARE skip the procedural steps that would delay my inevitable removal from the country" is not a winning argument, I daresay.
There's a lot of people in between US Citizen and illegal immigrants, like green card holders, legal immigrants and temporary (legal) visitors. Tens of millions, in fact. Where do they stand on the "Due Process" scale? Because even if you are right and US Citizens do have legal recourse, the non-Citizens legal immigrants sure don't.
UwU
2yr ago
This is insane. I haven't used Twitter for awhile and forgot my previous username, so I created a new twitter account and infinite scrolled for about 20 seconds and I hit the read-limit and got rate limited. The entire website went blank. What is he trying to accomplish here? Save on infrastructure costs? I don't remember another website trying anything like this.
Also why start this on the weekend? I imagine the poor engineering oncalls will start getting paged about massive egress and engagement drops, possibly split by each individual product pillar. It's not like this decision was leaked beforehand, so I don't believe it was widely communicated across the company. Basically, chaos.
I predict a walk-back within hours or days.
UwU
2yr ago
This being done without Elon's direction or consent is highly improbable. First, we know Elon publicly said he will not ban the account because he believes in free speech. Second, we know Elon has an iron grip on his company, with him laying off a significant chunk of employees, and off-the-cuff public firings with tweets. It's clear he can make unorthodox decisions fast, regardless of company processes, with the in-person print-out code-reviews, and the "I'm hardcore" email, and so on. So it's extremely unlikely some random employee or twitter staffer will go against Elon's wishes to ban the person he specifically said won't be banned, and even if they did, and Elon didn't like it, Elon would be on Twitter firing everyone involved and reinstating @elonjet as we speak.
If anything this proves the system is favorable to people like him, or at least working as intended.
More options
Context Copy link