UwU
1yr ago
Unless China gives up and proves that their zero Covid policy was an almost complete waste,
This is happening as we speak.
UwU
1yr ago
This being done without Elon's direction or consent is highly improbable. First, we know Elon publicly said he will not ban the account because he believes in free speech. Second, we know Elon has an iron grip on his company, with him laying off a significant chunk of employees, and off-the-cuff public firings with tweets. It's clear he can make unorthodox decisions fast, regardless of company processes, with the in-person print-out code-reviews, and the "I'm hardcore" email, and so on. So it's extremely unlikely some random employee or twitter staffer will go against Elon's wishes to ban the person he specifically said won't be banned, and even if they did, and Elon didn't like it, Elon would be on Twitter firing everyone involved and reinstating @elonjet as we speak.
UwU
1yr ago
The reason why this won’t be too escalatory is that this incident is 99% chance accidental and not intentional, whether it’s a Russian missile or an Ukrainian AD failure.
I really don't understand why he added "Sounds Chinese, doesn't it?" It alienates Chinese Americans and Youngkin supporters, and makes him look buffoonish for... no perceived purpose at all?
UwU
1yr ago
How did Trump ruin everything? (Genuine question)
Admittedly I'm not following the midterms super closely but I'd like to consider myself slightly better informed than the average voter.
UwU
1yr ago
Since I don't really read articles from news websites anymore, could you please give some examples of similar NYT articles using such phrases for Republican candidates?
UwU
1yr ago
To add, it shows how the mere accusation of racism or antisemitism is the left's superpower. It forces the accused to go on the defense and presumes some guilt. Any nuance or misunderstanding on the accused goes out the window. You can destroy someone's reputation this way even if it was a mistake. [...]
Someone can argue "what Kanye said was really egregious" but people have been cancelled, banned for less and it does not change the automatic presumption of guilt.
Does it show that, if what Kanye did was really egregious? It took several weeks of continuous bad behavior for his large business partners to drop him, not a mere accusation, or presumption of guilt. He doubled down, and then doubled down again. He even gloated that "[he] can say anti-sematic shit and Adidas can't drop [him]" before Adidas actually dropped him.
This method of argument reminds me of certain types of misleading posts on reddit. Where, even after they get debunked, the echo-chamber will say "yeah, this example may be misleading/fake, but it still highlights the obvious problem that exists today!"
UwU
1yr ago
I don't think he did. Anyway, these are pretty concrete predictions, we can find out who has more accurate priors when the deal's details are made public.
UwU
1yr ago
I don’t think Kanye is as business savvy as you think. So my prediction: Kanye has acquired or agreed to acquire significant stake in Parker (>20%), money has or will change hands, and he’s getting swindled and will overpay.
That conclusion strikes me as confirmation bias, because both Denmark and Germany are already in NATO. Why does Sweden need to pay NATO this “ransom” by breaking away from the international team? Maybe you can give a contrived explanation, but it may be too far fetched to be persuasive to those who don’t already have “NATO is behind this” as a prior.
UwU
1yr ago
Chesscom published the report based on cheating from over 2 years ago, but the most recent game that prompted all these cheating accusations was from last month. So far there's no evidence that cheating occurred in that game other than character evidence of him cheating online 2 years ago.
This is almost certainly chesscom trying, and succeeding, to cover for their questionable decision of re-banning Hans, most likely motivated by their financial stake in the reputation of Magnus. Here's the timeline, and you can double check this by reading the report you linked:
Up to 2020-08-11: Hans was cheating on chesscom. He cheated in 100 games, including prized tournaments.
2020-08-12: Hans was banned by chesscom and given an ultimatum to confess to cheating so he can recreate his account. He confessed, and chesscom let him create a new account
2020-08-12 to 2022-09: No evidence of cheating on Hans' new account was detected by chesscom, in the 4000 games played in the interval.
2022-09: Hans won over Magnus, who then implicitly accused him of cheating.
2022-09: Chesscom banned Hans for cheating.
UwU
1yr ago
It would be nice of you to expand on the specifics of how Putin hasn’t even unleashed his full military might, because he’s certainly using his Air Force. We have photographic and video evidence of dozens of Russian jets being shot down in this war, and in fact several just in the past week.
UwU
1yr ago
There will be no decapitation strike or strikes on Russian strategic nuclear assets, special forces or not, because that is equivalent to nuking Russia from a nuclear war perspective. The maximum response I would expect from NATO is the deployment of air and air defense assets in Ukraine to support the war effort and to intercept further nuclear strikes (if that is even possible). This could include limited conventional strikes inside the internationally recognized Russian territory as a supporting effort for SEAD.
UwU
1yr ago
I'm not a Ukrainian so I don't really have attachments to Crimea or Eastern Ukraine, so I'm perfectly fine to let Putin keep Crimea and 2014-era Donbas for the war to end, but it's not a realistic compromise for any of the parties here.
Putin just annexed Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts in addition to Donbas, so to Russia, they are officially Russian territory. The annexation of non-separatist oblasts is the Caesar crossing the Rubicon moment for Putin. He's staking the Russian future and legitimacy on this, and there's no going back.
Same thing for the Ukrainians. Before the annexation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, maybe Ukraine can still believe Russian war aims were limited, and that they were only interested in securing the separatists regions, but no longer. It's very clear to the Ukrainians that Russia is going for the shameless land grab, and there's no stopping Russia from annexing Odessa, Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk next. If they settle for a ceasefire now, there's always the looming future invasion, suppressing any foreign reconstruction investments. After all, why help Ukraine rebuild when it can all be torn down in the next Russian invasion? Therefore, if Ukraine settles for a ceasefire now, its long term prospects are bleak and they'll only be inviting Russia to take another bite out of their territory later. So, the Ukrainians must get a decisive result for their national sovereignty and their future. Either they win, or they die as a nation.
With these two factors combined, I don't see an end to the war any time soon without some miracle, and it's very depressing.
UwU
1yr ago
Which, if we know about, then Russia would have known about it as well. I've read UK ships were in that area, too. This could have been done with an underwater drone filled with explosives. The area could have been chosen because of the activities of the US/UK and others in the area, in order to create doubt.
Also Russia had a naval vessel there a week after the Americans. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-warship-violated-danish-territorial-waters-baltic-danish-military-2022-06-17/
There's evidence pointing in many directions. It's completely inconclusive.
UwU
1yr ago
So, not Zelensky, and not 200-500 deaths with 1000-1500 total casualties? Your sources support none of your initial claims, but you still post them as if they do. How would you feel if I claimed Putin verified 20k dead Russian soldiers but had to walkback to Shoigu saying 6k dead Russian soldiers? Would you think I was being intellectually honest? The same applies here.
On the topic of forceful conscription, it's just a single video of soldiers bullying civilians without context. Your initial claim is that an appreciable amount of the 700k mobilized forces were pressganged off the streets, so the evidentiary standard needs to be higher.
UwU
1yr ago
So many words, and so little truth and substance. Everything verifiable in your post about the war is a lie, and others are just inane ramblings.
Zelensky admitted 200-500 deaths a day, that's probably 1000-1500 total casualties once you include wounded. That's not sustainable. Their squads that go around black bagging people for the front are going to become predictable and conscripts will dry up.
Zelensky said that? You got a source for it? The max I remember was 50-100 a day during the most intense fighting when Ukraine was pursuing a ridiculous no-step-back strategy in Sievierodonesk. Considerable casualties for sure but 4 times less than your lies. That difficult period lasted about a month.
You got a source for the black bagging squads? If this is common occurrence responsible for any appreciable amount of conscripts then we'd have hundreds of telegram videos as proof.
And every neo-con or belicose commentator is like this once you ignore the high energy announcements and get into their analysis and predictions its "Ya no its exciting they could pull off this crazy dramatic campaign we've never seen signs of them doing and it would change everything ever... but odds are they won't and they'll get ground down and lose everything slowly and painfully... but hey we still bleed Russia and stop the Germans from pivoting to them, so a US geostrategic victory"
Every time, as soon as you dig into one of these more serious commentators that stake their influence on major us intellectuals taking them seriously, they'll spend ten minutes hedging, praising the UKrainians bravery, lay out some absurd tele-lazer snipe Zelensky could do if he levels up his mech to 5 stars... and then they say "But they need something like that, because as is they're going be ground down militarily and economically until they collapse"
Yeah? Who are those credible commentators you are referring to? Michael Kofman? Dara Massicot? It's easy to make up shit when it's unspecific.
UwU
1yr ago
But this isn’t sufficiently different from the given example of turnstile jumping, are you also okay with that? After all, the marginal cost of supporting one more person on the subway is negligible, likewise with hosting web content.
UwU
1yr ago
Not sure if it’s the right place to post this, but I noticed the new site does not hide the upvote/downvote count for 24 hours like on Reddit. Was that instituted on Reddit to discourage hive-mind behavior? Was that effective? And do we want to bring it here?
UwU
1yr ago
Other than AEO, I like reddit. It has great mobile app support, and most of my interests are aggregated in one place for convenient lunch-time viewing. This migration will definitely increase the friction of participation of existing mottizens (at least for me personally) and attracting new ones, but I understand it had to be done, eventually. I hope it succeeds!
This is insane. I haven't used Twitter for awhile and forgot my previous username, so I created a new twitter account and infinite scrolled for about 20 seconds and I hit the read-limit and got rate limited. The entire website went blank. What is he trying to accomplish here? Save on infrastructure costs? I don't remember another website trying anything like this.
Also why start this on the weekend? I imagine the poor engineering oncalls will start getting paged about massive egress and engagement drops, possibly split by each individual product pillar. It's not like this decision was leaked beforehand, so I don't believe it was widely communicated across the company. Basically, chaos.
I predict a walk-back within hours or days.
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