anti_dan
3mo ago
In a world where 16 year olds from time to time boost cars then leave them on the side of the road 30 feet from where they stole them, and then grow into productive citizens, this is how the criminal justice system should work.
In the world of the county I currently reside, this is instead the progression: 12-16 year olds regularly boost cars for their gangs. The gangs turn them into parts and they disappear into the black market and no owner ever sees them again. Then somewhere in the 16-21 year old age range they graduate to armed robbery and hijacking. Sometimes someone is shot, sometimes luckily not. If no one dies and they are 16 or 17, they get out in 3 years! If 18-21, 20 years. If they are the juvie, well they prolly do it again, or something else dumb like dealing drugs while armed. Then they get hit with a good 7-10. Now both sets of these juvies are lucky, they did no murders in their 20s, so they are likely about to age out of the violent crime demo. They are resigned to a life (mostly) of drug dealing, retail (or amazon delivery) thieving, and other antisocial, but usually nonviolent activities at this point. In any case the system that applied above makes no sense for the scenario here, and I gave a rosy scenario. No one has actually been shot or killed, merely placed in the extreme danger of being shot or killed.
The problem isn't that rehabilitation doesn't work as an absolute measure. Its that the places it would work are often the places where it is so rarely needed, no one even thinks about implementing it.
anti_dan
3mo ago
It also is one with, from my perspective, mostly imagined tradeoffs. The problem with incompetents, liars, lazies, addicts or otherwise exists in the low wage market (and fir the first 3, very prominently in the H1b market), but the tradeoff for employers looking abroad vs. at home at the high end is mostly about age discrimination and wage expectations. Take, for example, this recent viral tweet: https://x.com/JoshuaSteinman/status/1964097707636625671
Essentially, this guy is complaining about the fact that he needs a couple of retired/semi-retired 50-65 year old guys to come out of retirement to found a transformers company and is complaining that their salary demand is... slightly under $500k? Of course, if you are at all familiar with the mid-high end engineering work environment this is not at all new to you. The thought of hiring a 55 year old is offensive to most people in hiring. The thought that they are just as important as a founder with seed money, probably moreso. So even though this startup cost is actually a drop in the bucket, it seems unteneble to this fellow (who is representative).
So what will he do? Likely he will give up on the idea, but if he doesn't he's likely to try the H1b route. And if you are familiar with that you will know there will be many applicants with resumes that say they have experience designing and fabricating large transformers under various industry standards. They will not. If the company ever launches it will flounder and never get out a product until this guy caves and pays an old guy, OR one of his like 25 year old incidental white guy hires from Colorado School of Mines befriends one of those old white guys and fixes everything.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Zoning laws are more bipartisan than you let on, and, given that most local governments are saddled with many state and federal mandates, are unfortunately necessary. In a more libertarian world you might be right, but I can't say I've ever lived in that world.
But consider this, town of 20k people with mostly or all high income single family units plus a quaint downtown. Now, the school district is "awesome" (in other words it contains children who are intelligent and nonviolent/disruptive). Some developer decides to knock down 10 houses and build a 40 story slum. This just absolutely blows up the finances for the town. They now need a whole new plumbing system, double the cops, and, most expensively, their school now sucks. These kids pay way less per capita in taxes, plus they run around stabbing other kids. Libertarianism has many good aspects, but far too many on that side dont understand you need to do things in order. You cant have no zoning laws without repealing the CRA and eliminating the public school system. It just doesn't make sense.
Other tariffs. Excessive FDA regulatory burden. The existence of patent law. The Jones Act.
Tariffs are another similar case. When you think about it, it is objectively unfair to American workers that we have the FDA, EPA, NLRB, OSHA, etc and then they have to compete against someone who can burn coal and dump arsenic into rivers.
I'd be very interested in your patent law take. I've worked in it extensively and it mostly works well outside of pharmaceuticals and a few "innovative" patent categories (which IMO the patent acts as written shouldn't ever have applied to. To get an idea of those categories of what IMO are fake/illegal patent categories see Bilski v. Kappos, Mayo v. Prometheus, and Alice Corp.
I don't actually think I, or anyone actually knows what the Jones act does. It outwardly seems fairly stupid.
anti_dan
3mo ago
So you like Obamacare and dislike tariffs. Thats fine. Whats the cost imposing measure that was implemented before tariffs that you dislike as much?
anti_dan
3mo ago
There is that, but also I just think Iowans and Nebraskans are generally pretty good at self-governance, and they'd have none of the built up bureaucracy that Israel has from its early years that were much more socialist in origin. It is still a fairly dysfunctional government as we've seen with the Supreme Court's battles with Bibi.
Generally busting a bunch of Americans out of the complicated regulatory environment that exists in America would usually result in explosive growth.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Today’s absurdity is Gaza. A carnival of cruelty, with no obvious exit strategy. Israel has never had a real theory of victory, no one has yet offered a real plan for Gaza going forward, a few Israeli cranks on the right wing will at least attempt to forward real plans for genocide or ethnic cleansing, but mostly everyone still talks about a two-state solution that will obviously never come to be. Israel will not allow any group that could govern Gaza to govern Gaza, will neither absorb Gaza nor let it go, will neither integrate the Palestinians nor murder them in numbers significant enough to achieve population reduction. Gaza is kept in desperate famine, but not exterminated; it is kept miserable but not destroyed. And the vast majority of US politicians stand with Israel, and are more concerned with campus no-no words than with ongoing physical cruelty to no obvious end.
This part seems shoehorned into your post without you really making the connection. I don't think it accurately portrays the situation in Gaza, which is part of the reason it simply does not fit the pattern. Gaza, simply put, may be a carnival of cruelty, but it is self imposed. The people of Gaza prefer being poor and hungry to being non-violent and cooperative neighbors. They have expressed this again and again. And part of the problem with that is you assertion that a "vast majority" of US politicians stand with Israel is false. Most will mouth words in that direction from time to time, but particularly Democrats, are quick to criticize any effective military or law enforcement action by Israel. Because of this, the US imposes significant restraints on Israeli action (preventing the ethnic cleansing/genocide or even just a real blockade, for example) which means Hamas always has the whip hand in Gaza. Gazans largely like Hamas, it appears, but those who don't fear Hamas much more than they fear Israel. For as bad as some actions have been on a small scale, Netanyahu is never going to condone raping the wives of Hamas militants while their babies burn to death in an over. And I don't think Israel needs to go THAT far to win this war. But from Vietnam to Afghanistan, we have consistently learned that occupations with a soft touch are doomed to failure.
ISTM the most clear and least cruel path forward is a worldwide Israeli green light to level any building, whether it be a school, hospital, or bunker, where there is reasonable suspicion a Hamas person or article is present. Realistically, this is most of Gaza. Following a WWII Tokyo like bombing campaign over the majority of the territory, perhaps the people of Gaza will elect new leadership and come to an armistice. That could, theoretically be followed by one of a few scenarios:
- 3 state solution. Gaza and West Bank being separate.
- Annexation. Both Gaza and W/B are annexed by Egypt and Jordan.
- Some Hybrid of 1&2.
I would expect under #1, both would quickly become very well off states provided they don't go back into the terrorism game. Trump often spouts BS, but he is absolutely correct that they are both excellent locations for a prosperous state, given the right leadership and populace. I expect, for example, if you put a bunch of Iowans in Gaza and Nebraskans in West Bank, both would swiftly approach or exceed Israel in GDP/Capita.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Were you born after 2008? because people were definitely Big Mad. The outrage reduced over time, but only because Obamacare is actually decent policy. (And if you want to argue that, explain why even Trump still hadn't gotten rid of it.)
Not generally, from you. Its not good policy at all. Medicaid should be abandoned not expanded. Implementing the mandate and coverage on preexisting conditions has caused a cost spiral in the personal/family health insurance market. Trump hasn't gotten rid of it because 1) He has never had close to the votes; 2) He doesn't really care, its not his issue; and 3) Taking away benefits causes farm more wailing than imposing diffused and hidden costs. The cost to the economy of Obamacare is equivalent of probably a 100% tariff on all goods in perpetuity.
anti_dan
3mo ago
I don't like trump because he's made my situation materially worse and is likely to continue to do so. I don't like trump because he profits the outgroup at the expense of the ingroup. I don't like trump because I'm ideologically and morally opposed to his positions. I don't like trump because I think he is, personally, a very immoral individual.
But how? Unless you are a rulebreaker or someone who gets money from the government for non-poverty or oldness related reasons you cant have been. If you are amongst the rulebreakers, certainly you knew you were, right? The rules as written are much harsher than the Trump rules. The third option is tariffs.
If you are a government subsidy for non-poverty reasons-er, well that could always have ended at any time right? Was your work nonpartisan? Like were you researching how to grow trees with wood 2x as strong in 1/18 the time? Or were you doing something else?
The tariff affected I see and understand. Its a rapid change in the business environment, and those always suck. If you can show me an approximately equal amount of outrage about the passage and implementation of Obamacare you are certified fresh to complain about the Trump tariffs.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Normal people dont take videos of other people, particularly children, unless there is something positive happening. If you are an adult male taking a video of an underage female, you better be taking a video of your niece that you are sending to her grandparents. Outside of that sort of situation, you are the problem.
If we take this situation in the light most favorable to the video maker, he is a wierdo man who walks up to 12 year old girls then films their reaction to him.
anti_dan
3mo ago
That is less money laundering than it is questionable payoffs for corruption and other acts though. The money being used has already been laundered, if necessary.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Nick Fuentes is probably the second most important person to watch on the Republican side after Trump himself.
This is an incredible assertion with little evidence supporting it. As far as I have seen Fuentes occupies the space of fairly ineffective troll. The man who one would consider to be his most obvious right leaning nemesis-Ben Shapiro, wields far more influence and power than he does, and the gap is not narrowing, Daily Wire is basically Fox News of 2000, but for today, and more. And they just ejected Candace Owens like dehydrated feces on a lunar flight without losing audience at all, in fact, most evidence shows them up post-Owens. Daily Wire has produced multiple popular podcasts, feature length movies and documentaries (some which would have shifted the culture significantly), and launched various brands that people seem to buy as luxuries.
OTOH, Nick Fuentes has done none of that, and survives mostly on the energy of people freaked out about him. If you are on the left or Left-adjacent Grey grey like Hanania, you might think this sort of freak out is what defines Trump. But that isn't true at all. What defines Trump is how much people actually like him. He's popular and cool. His base loves him. He is occasionally based, but really, is mostly moderate with vigor. His whole 2nd term has been him taking on a bunch of issues that Americans overwhelmingly support him on (often at 90/10, 80/20 numbers) and just saying loudly "lets do what the majority thinks is good" and then getting yelled at by the minority who happen to also hold positions of power in the media/DNC. Fuentes can kinda do the media freakout part, but he has none of the base appeal part, and, crucially, none of the picking good issues part.
anti_dan
3mo ago
This really isnt persuasive to me at all. Posting video online where someone over-reacts to your jerk move is pretty standard fare. We have the Shiloh Hendrix case, thousands of cases where women dress provocatively at the gym for the purpose of cussing out men who looked at their butt or bosom, trans people being aggro then filming clerks who "misgendered" them, and many more. I think the term is outrage farming. Its super common. My presumption now is that anyone filming a sole, private citizen, in public at a non-public event is probably a bad actor. You dont just film a 14 year old girl, even if she is being an asshole and brandishing a hatchet if you are a normal guy. A normal guy just shrugs and leaves. Video guy tries to provoke the situation so he can get a good video. Whether he is just a jerk video guy, a snitch, or a creepy rapist remains an open question. But I see no situation where he is actually a positive contributor to the community.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Your problem is thinking there is a healthy tree at all. There are a tiny number of healthy branches. The roots and trunk are diseased and rotten.
You are ignoring what the actual situation is. Regardless of their actual research output, the supposedly legitimate researchers allowed their research to be misrepresented to support left wing narratives. And even when the research was too obscure or theoretical to do that, they still allowed themselves to provide cover fire for much larger groups of illegitimate "research". It is bad to not be able to calculate the proper path to the moon from Cape Canaveral. But it doesn't matter that you got the calculations right in some obscure corner of the world, if actually those calculators ran cover for DEI nonsense that they, the white men, aren't even a part of NASA or any of NASA's consultants. Instead those places are all black women cosplaying that movie that came out a decade ago and the rockets all land in the Atlantic.
anti_dan
3mo ago
The nuance was available for Tao and other academics doing "good" work to police their own and not let their own research to be used to launder pure advocacy and propaganda under the guise of research. You can't be a part of "no enemies on the left" for the better part of your career and then act shocked when people put weight on your words and actions.
anti_dan
3mo ago
The problem is the whole ecosystem is corrupt and tries to launder political propaganda by citing to things like Tao's work and other stuff like it. This is what happens when good people operate within a bad system, they become part of the problem.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Discord, Roblox, and Telegram are currently the big 3 IMO when it comes to enabling Child Porn and Child Predators. Other big sites have much better policing, particularly of the images, and the more "specialized" sites usually are more for just the Child Porn, which is of course bad, but there wasn't many child users of Kik, for example, despite of, or perhaps because it was, a hive of scum and villainy.
anti_dan
3mo ago
No, you posted leftist propaganda, the equivalent of me posting a Glen Beck video from his crazy 2010s era, as a source.
The Cato study you linked isn't focused on some sort of EA evaluation of QOL/$ because doing something like that for an anti-poverty program is hopelessly confounded. This is why you should easily know the "40 billion dollars for 18 billion in spending" is ridiculous propaganda. Also, it appears to understate actual spending on these programs by between $9 and $80 billion depending on the source.
I have now read the main report from Rockefeller, and it is just full of conclusory language. So now I must read the model. The tech report is similarly full of just conclusions with no evidence to support them. They say the lunches save people in poverty money by calculating the cost of producing the same meals for a private household. This is, of course, absurd. They attribute greater future earnings to the recipients of school lunches AND reduced criminality. Again, just bald assertions. The claims continue in this fashion.
The whole exercise of fisking my priors has just been a waste of my time, as my prior that the Rockafeller report would be leftist nonsense was proven correct via a painstaking process of reading an incredibly poorly prepared report and technical supplement that should have gotten a failing grade in and freshman statistics course. Of course, in other fields it would be given stellar grades, because those other academic fields are just about producing things that re-enforce the narrative, which this "study" certainly does.
NIH has done a study that shows that any study (like the one above) that assumes kids are even eating the meals is dubious. Some are, some aren't. There is no evidence that the ones that are, are the one's whos parents wouldn't have packed a meal, which IS an essential element of proving the efficacy of the program. You need to prove there are lots of kids who have parents that cant afford an apple and a sandwich that are eating, as a result of the food program, something healthy. If they discard the broccoli you give them and eat the chips you've proven nothing. If my kid or someone like him eats the broccoli you have again proven nothing.
Overall, a government spending program needs to prove its effectiveness to a much higher degree to be justified in its continuance. School lunches aren't getting close. Its not a mystery why school lunches are a big push: Public schools are already a giant left wing boondoggle, but they are also a 3rd rail so they aren't going away. Why not append another couple hundred billion of subsidies into that ecosystem? It just pours back into the right coffers after all.
Imagine arguing with this kind of evidence in favor of free ammunition program. You'd be laughed at by yourself. But at least the ammo isn't going to be thrown away and make kids fat.
anti_dan
3mo ago
You seem particularly dedicated to this issue so I don't think marshaling studies in the other direction will be a fruitful endeavor for me. Suffice to say, I disagree with basically all your points.
I don't think modern schooling is an investment in children, it is childcare with extra expenses.
I don't think has ever been even a small cohort (perhaps there was a tiny <1%) of underfed children in America during the era that school lunches were adopted.
The problem with school lunches being unhealthy could not be solved by Michelle Obama or anyone as president. The problem is that healthy food is considered inedible by exactly the population you are targeting. Only kids like my son get excited by broccoli and peas followed by some chicken and mushrooms and can agree to wait till after dinner for a treat.
You linked a far left wing think tank as your source somehow thinking it would be persuasive, despite the many cues one gets when you land at the website that this isn't an academic study, its propaganda (and leftist at that, just aesthetically) trying to mimic research, poorly.
Everything is downstream of the problem that the kids are kids of bad parents. They get that genetically and in early childhood development. This is why school interventions are typically dumb and expensive. They are too late. The only reason people think of things like school lunches is because we already have this massive left-of-center institution known as public school, and so its easy to append additional spending programs to it and use "think of the children" as an excuse.
anti_dan
3mo ago
If you can't throw an apple and peanut butter sandwich in a bag how are you even considered a parent?
I disagree about them being good in theory, and certainly in practice they seem an epic failure. The food is either not healthy or not eaten by the target audience.
anti_dan
3mo ago
Comment 1 is a combination of strawmanning and mocking. It also includes a reference to a meme that is arguably being applied incorrectly.
Overall a low-mid quality comment that, if you agree with you are likely to ignore, and if you disagree with you might throw a minus on it. That it has +10 at all is strong proof of anti-gun people voting on ideology.
The second one is perfectly mid, I would not have voted on it, and in fact did not. But it does invoke several anti-gun idiocies like appeals to other combat weapons, hunting, drivers licenses, etc. I can see a strong argument for giving it a downvote for being mealy-mouthed gish-gallop and I see no reason other than length and partisanship for an upvote.
anti_dan
3mo ago
They want to make money from both markets, but one just makes way more sense to focus on. Especially since people will prefer intelligent + sycophantic to less intelligent + equal amounts of sycophancy.
I dont think they actually do. IMO a large problem with most AI companies is they are vanity projects being overseen by bloated, already successful, companies that are looking to find a second revenue stream in the future. But that future is far off and the current revenue streams aren't going anywhere soon, so they can afford to be stupid and make their AI's intentionally stupid to placate their employees who don't want to see an AI outputting things that would offend said employees.
anti_dan
3mo ago
You can chalk me up as someone who thinks empathy and the truth are fundamentally at odds. And I think this scales quickly. Sure, on a personal level or in a family its something small like, "I know you're scared little guy but the shot wont hurt" or "sure honey you look good in that" but it quickly escalates to unmanageable levels even at the community level. Schools that let empathy take the wheel end up passing illiterates and violent kids through the system, they provide free lunches, they dismantle gifted programs. States enact unwieldy and expensive welfare programs, arcane minority benefit regulations, ever expanding censorship regimes, etc.
My thoughts exactly. But this case is simply illustrative. I work with engineers in my law practice. My brother is an engineer. I swear, these firms treat age 50 as if it is death, and 45 as pushing the reaper. If someone in mid/mid-sr management on the engineering side gets laid off and they are over 50, they might as well just start their own model train shop right away. There simply is no appetite to hire them, even at 1/2 rungs below where they were let go from. This is why people in the industry have such skepticism about the whole model of immigrant labor. Companies inevitably ignore dozens or hundreds of qualified domestic candidates, often accompanied with a very specifically worded job posting. That then gets forwarded to the H1b agency that takes a half dozen even less qualified foreigners and writes them perfect resumes for the position (regardless of the truthiness of those words), and now you have 3 engineers for the price of 1! Or do you? For some reason the project is always "going well" or "coming along". But deliverables always seem lacking, often the claim is they are contingent on someone else's work (who is often some recent StateU grad, and "his work" is the whole project).
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