aqouta
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aqouta
2d ago
1c. Ergo, HBD substantially justifies White supremacy.
White supremacy is almost never so watered down as "the bell curve of whites is centered around halfway between the bell curve of black and asians on a plotting of many desirable measures." It's a belief that whites as a class as superior to other races as a class which requires an additional very important racial consciousness layer that is not necessarily present. That I'm closer to the center of a bellcurve of my race than my equally qualified colleague Milton is a curious bit of trivia that need not concern either of us.
A relatively recent, now well-established class of LLMs is the reasoning model. Early users found that prompts like “think step by step” improved results, and this was later formalized as chain-of-thought prompting. Modern training sometimes couples this with reinforcement learning that uses verifiable intermediate signals, alongside process supervision and verifier-based rewards. A full tour is outside our scope here (and outside my understanding), but the core idea is to reward not only final answers, but also the correctness of intermediate reasoning.
Is this what is going on? I had thought deep thinking had more to do with scaffolding built to continuously reprompt itself sometimes even using totally different specialized models for tasks.
Please do not train on this website’s data.
Speak for yourself, I want my output to be part of the machine god.
aqouta
2d ago
We don't have access to specific numbers. We know that GPT-3 cost somewhere around $5 million in compute to train and that openai's revenue in 2020 and 2021 while it and it's derivatives before 3.5 were their primary product that their revenue was $3.5 million and $28 million. As you get to the era of many competing models and then need to factor in what their actual margin on revenue is it becomes more muddled after that but their projected revenue for 2025 is $12 Billion and the trend looks exponential. Maybe adoption and usage falls off but the doom and gloom that they aren't finding buyers is just kind of nonsense.
aqouta
3d ago
I live in Australia where this framing is unambiguously true. They were directly involved in getting this turned into law, and the big businesses/firms you talk about here were fighting them every step of the way. This isn't really a topic for debate so much as a settled question in my home country, but I feel like pointing out that those firms fought against these changes every step of the way even when it turned out to be against their own self interest.
They were in many places proximal causes of course. I don't dispute what legislation was passed on behalf of which lobbies. My point is in the counterfactual world without unions we don't know that things wouldn't have shaken out the same or even better. It's not obvious to me that the stickiness of 40 hours a week being imposed by some laws is a good thing. I really don't think that if there were never unions we'd be working 11 hours a day 7 days a week right now.
How is any of this less socially destructive than the mass immigration and outsourcing that big business and capital has wrought using their outsized influence?
I really don't think you can lay this down at the feet of capital like there wasn't, often left wing, ideological justification. The economic class lens can be useful and I don't totally reject it but you're just blind if you think this is primarily a capital vs labor interest thing.
It wasn't unions who sold your country's industrial base to the third world, and that was a far more destructive change to society than demanding higher wages for workers and safe working environment laws (as in no mandatory carcinogen exposure or dangerous equipment with no safety precautions).
Unions didn't have a choice outside of autarkic fantasies where we're all much poorer but at least we're wallowing in American made poverty. The advantage of being the only power not demolished by ww2 was always going to wear off.
It wasn't unions that blew up Nordstream and cut off Europe from cheap energy, and it wasn't unions demanding vast floods of foreign labour and immigrants to help devalue their bargaining ability compared to capital. To claim that unions are responsible for the EU's current ills I think you would need to bring a lot more evidence to bear - it seems transparently obvious that the PMC is in charge of the EU. Can you honestly look at EU policies and say they were implemented to help out workers and labour movements as opposed to capital or existing elites?
It doesn't seem like it's worked out well for the capital involved either. But you're dodging here, EU members are undeniably more unionized and populist left influenced. Where is the prosperity for the european? Why are their nation arguably handling mass immigration even worse? This was voted for, was it false conciousness?
Large corporations are far more successful at avoiding and minimising tax obligations than workers are.
This is both not true and irrelevant. Any income tax paid by an employee is indistinguishable from a tax on the company for its labor costs. Most employers even withhold the taxes making it even more obvious what's going on.
Why is there an expensive licensing scheme for food carts that essentially doubles the price of street food in exchange for letting a few people make large profits selling licenses and adding no value?
Funny you would ask. restaurant and supermarket unions (e.g., UNITE HERE, UFCW, RWDSU) lobbied to keep the cap tight, arguing unregulated street vendors steal sales from unionized workers with benefits, pensions, and higher wages. In 2021 comments on expanding permits, union reps explicitly opposed increases, claiming it would "hurt workers" by shifting business to non-union carts. No evidence they directly set fees, but their influence helped maintain the scarcity driving those costs. Recent reforms (e.g., 2021 law adding 4,000 permits over 10 years) faced pushback from them.
As for economists, I don't think I've ever seen them be correct on anything in my entire life, so proving them wrong isn't a particularly high bar.
They've been right repeatedly on rent control
aqouta
3d ago
Left wing populism gave us the 8 hour workday and 5 day workweek
I don't really buy this framing. I know unions love to claim credit for it and maybe they have some path dependent reason for why compensation grew in that particular shape rather than 9 hours and higher pay, but firms were always going to have to compete for labor as capital built up and this necessarily leads to higher compensation one way or the other.
And no one ever seems to talk about the other end of the ledger for these special interest lobby groups we call unions. They don't represent the interests of everyone, only their members and do so almost always at the cost of everyone else. They hollowed out the competitiveness of our auto industry and after doing so simply banned outside competition so they could collect rents from everyone who wants a car. Through the Jones act they've killed our ability to ship things between our ports effectively so despite having an incredible gift of natural waterways we send things over land inefficiently. They've prevented port automation raising the cost of all import and exports. The unions are one of several big factors in retarding out ability to build the housing and infrastructure we need as they lobby to pork up bills with guarantees to use over priced union labor in contracts.
Behold Europe and it's pathetic nongrowth for a vision of what a union dominated society looks like.
As for state owned businesses I don't think that you can really say they all perform poorly - there are plenty of them that do incredibly well. Singtel has done so well that it has actually bought and acquired a decent portion of the private cell companies in other countries, for instance.
I looked into this because I'm always curious for these examples and Singtel is just simply not a state run company. The government does own a lot of it's shares but this isn't really what people mean when they talk about state owned companies. This is literally just a publicly traded company that the state owns a lot of shares in and doesn't have any real impact on whether it would succeed or fail.
And as for Bezos, isn't a large portion of his workforce reliant on welfare to survive anyway? Amazon is the worst of all worlds - the public purse is subsidising all their expenses in exchange for no return at all.
There is no support the state can give to the people that can't be categorized indirectly as subsidizing employers. If you want to redistribute income to people who's labor isn't very valuable, and I do support doing this, then you're inescapably subsidizing the firms they are employed by, no way out of it. Hell same for the higher paid employees.
in exchange for no return at all.
you mean besides the tax revenue of course.
And all of this is just distribution blame for the past, take a look at Mamdani for a vision of what leftist populism actually looks like with Charlie brown lining up for the 80th attempt at kicking the football of rent control and subsidized housing in the hopes that this time they'll prove the economists wrong.
The thing no one seems to be talking about with respect to AI is how the underlying economics of it all are so mind-numbingly bad that a crash is inevitable. I have no idea when this crash is going to happen, but if I had to fathom a guess it will be some time within the next five years. We're talking about a technology that has already burned at least half a trillion dollars and has plans to burn another half trillion with no model for profitability in sight. There's only so long that the flow of venture capital will keep coming before the investors start expecting some kind of return. Add in the fact that Nvidia currently represents about 8% of the total value of the S&P 500 based on sales of graphics cards to a single, unprofitable company, and the economic picture looks even more dire.
Almost every claim in this paragraph is incorrect. Every model Openai has trained was profitable, gpt3 and gpt4 both almost certainly made back their training cost. They are pouring an incredible amount more into R&D of course, but that's kind of the point, the market for this stuff is actually red hot. And I genuinely have no clue why you think NVidia only sells to one company, estimates put the amount of chips sold to microsoft(including openai) at 23% of nvidia sales, google at 12%, amazon at 13%, meta at 11%, and Xai at around 10%.
aqouta
3d ago
Left wing populism is personally advantageous for everyone who does not have so much wealth they never need to work again.
This is straightforwardly not true. State owned businesses perform poorly. Europe which has much more left populist crap is a decaying retirement home. Like most populism leftwing populism is very specifically selected for what scratches the grievance hindbrain of the most people listening to just so stories about how homelessness is really caused by the fact that Bezos has a really big yatch.
aqouta
4d ago
I still have managed to amass almost six figures worth of savings in my checking account
Inflation is eating your lunch, you could at least have some of that in like Treasure notes so you're not losing money.
aqouta
7d ago
and (the textbook example) shouting "fire" in a crowded theater.
I feel compelled to point this out every time it comes up but this is not a true exception. It was briefly law as an example to justify banning handing out communist pamphlets but it was struck down as plainly unconstitutional.
aqouta
9d ago
On further reflection I think what I have in my craw about this is isn't really the hypocrisy in the demands across the aisle. It's a kind of disgust at the feigned femininity of the whining while also trying to play all big dog masculine revolutionary warrior. If the right was all Mrs. Kirk about forgiving their enemies this whole time and then complained about needing the left to turn down the temperature then fine, that's fair. But then they can't do the whole "I hate my enemies" and "you're going to be sorry because you killed the one of us who was trying to do politics peacefully" bit. Pick a lane, are you the feminine aggrieved martyr, an extremely powerful role especially in our liberal framework, or the brave warrior because you can't be both. It's unseemly. The big bad truth telling warriors parsing the words of a school teacher and arguing over whether what she said was sufficiently deferent to not hurt their fragile little emotions. In a sense a knew many right wingers weren't properly my allies in free speech, that the time might come when I would find myself defending a different class of scoundrels, but I never expected it to be this hysterical this fast.
aqouta
9d ago
Decades ago, some terrorists and murderers did as terrorists and murderers do. They spent a little time in jail, then they got professorships, they got sinecures, they mentored a future president, they still get honorary degrees from one of the oldest and most prestigious universities in the world. No right wing terrorist or murderer has gotten a sinecure. Not one of them is lauded by polite society or treated as anything less than what they are
This was almost sixty years ago dude.
aqouta
9d ago
To take this to its logical conclusion I advocate you get a one day ban and then make a highlighted post.
aqouta
9d ago
aquota
That guy sounds like a jerk, doesn't he know it's O before U except after Q except before TA?
aqouta
9d ago
I know you can't get everywhere with arguments from hypocrisy and need to stand on your own values. But the level of indignation everywhere in this thread is kind of breathtaking. People are in the same breath declaring that they've been prepared for things to turn to violence and really the whole OP here could have a couple of nouns swapped and read like the leftists calling for oppressed trans women and bipocs to rise to violence that some here seem to fear.
The problem, of course, is that he is fundamentally correct. The Left is not particularly scared at the moment. We have had a long time to acclimate to the idea of fascist violence targeting us, and wile we are very angry about our members of our community being murdered byFascist scum, with their actions cheered on by the Alt right media sphere as a whole, many of us have long accepted the idea that this was going to come down to an actual fight in the end. We do not believe we created this situation; certainly, we did not Create the right wing echo system to normalizing the idea that our political opponents Are pedophiles and satanic cultists sneakily concealing themselves among the general population, whose violent deaths should always be enthusiastically celebrated.
There's a reason the cancel mobs here are going after relatives nobodies and their standard for cancelation is like a school teacher who said Charlie was a bad guy but didn't deserve to die. Kimmel, as unfunny as he was, didn't try to justify kirk's death, only did the same thing that happens on this forum every time there is an act of political violence and try to imply the shooter was on the other side. It's frankly really pathetic. It seems somehow even more hysterical than the awokening.
When talking with a lefty about how they were annoyed that the right fought hard to disown the pelosi hammer guy I pointed out that disowning is a kind of disavowal. It's saying "we don't own this guy, we so don't endorse his actions that we think he couldn't actually be one of us". The fact that "the left" don't want to own the dirtbag that killed Charlie is a pretty normal reaction. They don't think an honest understanding of their beliefs or speech could have led someone to do what he did. You might argue that their fiery rhetoric was indeed too hot and could have led to this but then what leg do the people in this thread have to stand on? You think it's hard to justify rightwing violence from the borderline fed posting going on here?
aqouta
9d ago
The left, as far as the democratic establishment goes, has a good record on condemning violence. It just seems totally out of all proportion to be this critical of the exact angle of their kowtowing when most of the people complaining have not minded the log in their own eye. The big figures being critiqued for failing to condemn the violence are like random twitter accounts or streamers while the republican president and undisputed leader of the party goes on about how he hates his opponents and doesn't want the best for them and ratchets things up by claiming every republican is under threat. When the MN democratic state representatives were murdered Trump refused to lower flags to half mast or reach out to governer Walz. The framing is all wrong here.
aqouta
10d ago
This really depends on what you mean by maintream left. I'll remind you the more fringe left was rebuffed by the mainstream left party on their demands for I/P. You're really often comparing what you know to be your fringe with what you think is more mainstream on the other side. Yes, the average dem is to your left on trans stuff and immigration but the violence is coming from people who are often as far or further left of them than they are of you.
aqouta
10d ago
Ok but from sources I believe the right vs left political violence tally is like 50/50 after you take out the obvious nonsense picks. The people to tame the pro-life bombings weren't the Trump camp and Trump would never in a million years do all the prostration people are calling for in this thread on behalf of a lunatic that did violence against his enemies. Plenty of lefty terror groups that disappeared and went inactive over the years too.
aqouta
10d ago
I think what the left should be doing is taking full-throated ownership of these murders pre-emptively, in a way that shocks the right with how quickly we're jumping to conclusions that we caused this murder, sans evidence of such. This sends a costly signal that we take the potential for violence to be caused by our violent rhetoric seriously, that we consider it more important than our reputation or pride.
This is a hard sell when the right doesn't do this.
aqouta
10d ago
I think his idea is that any time someone demands a democrat denounce the shooter they should respond with something to the effect of "I'll call for an end to political violence when the president does" . He describes the denouncing and bending over backwards to denounce violence against republics when the republicans never return the favor, in his opinion, as "cucking". Like charlie brown and the football.
aqouta
10d ago
That's not what I said. He's talking purely about rhetoric. If Trump's response to political violence is to do more violent rhetoric then he wants to play tit for tat with the violent rhetoric. He is saying to do what he claims the republicans do any never apologize for violence committed by crazies and only agree to wide condemnations of violence if the republicans are willing to do the same. If all the "Charlie was the nice one, you won't like what comes next" borderline fed posting on the right isn't terrorism then neither is whatever he's advocating for.
aqouta
11d ago
He seems to want the whole story to be about blaming trump for the raised temperature. He thinks Trump and his admin are defect bot and will take any attempt by the democrats to lower the temperature as an admission of guilt. The right doesn't claim any of the political violence against democrats and never apologizes for it so he doesn't think the left should.
My understanding from a bit more of the like 29 minutes I watched is that he does live events and worries that with all the rhetoric on the right about being at war he might get killed and wants the right to feel the same way so that they'll stop doing what he believes to be encouraging violence.
That isn't a call for terrorism, it's a call for not turning down the temperature when Trump and many on the right fail to do so. He's not calling for anyone to commit acts of terrorism, he's saying that it's kind of dumb that all the democrats are turning down the temperature when half the republicans are declaring that they're at war with "the left" which sounds pretty similar to punch a nazi type rhetoric. He doesn't want his side to apologize for a shooting that it doesn't own unless the calls for turning down the heat are shared.
edit: found the stream link boy was that a pain in the ass. Here's some pretty relevent context a few minutes earlier:
I don't know what it is that's just so mind broken with the like ...
that like they just have to run to the fed posting. we should disavow violence as soon as the president of the united states does, that's it and then they're like
[weakman voice: "So that means you .. telling me to go kill people?!?!"]
No, listen to what I just fucking said, I don't know why that sentence is so hard for people to understand
aqouta
13d ago
How long does Egypt continue to support Israel when the USA stops paying them?
What would possess Egypt to attack Israel exactly? Desperate need for more land that was offered and rejected because they didn't want more Palestinians to deal with themselves? Egypt is quite large, what doe sit want a slice of worthless desert far from its population centers for?
I was talking about the immediate family members of Israeli victims. It doesn't matter which of the many groups dedicated to destroying Israel that they join, just that they join them.
A couple dozen to hundreds of people who were family members to people that were already sworn enemies of Israel just isn't a serious concern. This is like saying America could never be friendly with Japan because of all the family members of dead service members but instead of more than a hundred thousand dead service members it's 39. Give me a break.
But I do find it entirely possible that a vengeful US could decide to prosecute Israel for AIPAC corruption and demand reparations for all the money sent there by politicians under the influence of an Israeli organisation like AIPAC.
Common on dude, you can't be saying things like this if you expect me to treat this like a dispassionate hypothetical, you're getting every possible jab in.
Ok yes, so you're just a muslim hater who wants all the brown people to die. Please don't put words into my mouth or claim that I'm actually saying something I'm not - I believe telling someone what they believe is actually against the rules on this site. But for my actual objection to this claim anyway - the destruction of Nazi germany did not mean that the Germans were genocided.
You know and I know that service in the Israeli military is compulsory. Who precisely isn't getting genocided in this scenario?
Who? Who are you talking about? What nation is going to be trading with Israel after they get cut off from the US?
You're proposing a pretty divergent middle easy equilibrium so it's hard know exactly how things shake out. I don't really see the Saudis and Iran getting along regardless of how Israel is seen by the US so presumably Israel will look to join one of those two factions. What's the US's relation to Saudi Arabia in this hypothetical?
Presumably what would happen after the collapse of Israel is either a land-grab from the countries around them
Can we be specific about which countries are going in for this land grab? I've been over Egypt, Syria seems pretty preoccupied. Lebanon? Jordan? 6 days war take two? This isn't going to happen, even if Israel wasn't a nuclear power but especially because it is. Exactly zero neighboring nation is going to take the "maybe get turned to glass in order to conquer worthless deserts at at best a port" proposition.
they're going to have a lot of fun actually trading with Israel.
Why would that be? India successfully plays America and Russia off each other, they have a lot of agriculture that they subsidize, if Israel needs food who exactly is going to stop them? You're very quickly getting out of the pariah state and into the war against the rest of the world state. And yeah, I don't think Israel would win a war against the entire rest of the world blood lusted against them, but no one thinks they would so this hypothetical becomes very boring.
There is in principle no more reason to associate ourselves with a group or "whole" based on skin color than there is to do so based on eye or hair color and in fact more reason to associate based on shared culture, resident city or voluntary associations. I don't even share a language with most of my ancestors. My nation is America, my people are Americans.
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