I feel like there's enough information leaking through here to infer what happened -- why would they stay quiet, with no defectors; "a range of events"; etc -- but I'm too stupid to put it together.
Any guesses?
Looking back into this a few days later: some people went to a strip club
Much less interesting than I was imagining.
What specifically is the case against Bellingcat?
I've seen a lot of nonspecific innuendo about them especially since Elon Musk's "psyop" accusations, but then what seems like one of their main guys volunteers this apparently unprompted (which is the first I've heard about it despite following the Belgorod raid all day, including through pro-Russian sources), which seems at odds with the idea that they're so tied up with western intelligence agencies.
The New Yorker has published a 9000-word article rehabilitating Shane Gillis (archive), the comedian who was prominently fired from SNL in 2019 after clips surfaced of him making racist remarks against asians.
(almost immediately after being announced as part of a new cohort including the first asian cast member, the shitstorm centered on a clip which included him saying the word "chink" on his podcast (original instigating tweet, offending clip, full episode), and he was fired 4 days later)
(fwiw, this was in the context of doing an implicit impression of "the kind of guy who would say that"; but he's said "worse", about even more protected groups, in ways which would require even more discernment than this to escape, which is already impossible enough that he didn't ever publically attempt it)
That they attempted to bring Shane Gillis into as hallowed an institution as SNL in the first place was remarkable and seemed to me at the time like it could even have been an early sign of a potential vibe shift (at a time which absolutely did not have a lot of that). He was explicitly intended to be red-tribe outreach, and as far as I know SNL has not attempted anything like that again since.
That he even lasted 4 days at that level of shitstorm in a cultural place so far behind the lines is remarkable, and there is all kinds of kremlinology you can do at any level of suspicion about how deliberate or coordinated any of it is about how that went down.
Similarly with this rehabilitation.
While moral culpability is certainly part of the question (I think the answer is easy enough to be uninteresting: you are right), my question is literally which parts were in the plan?
Which parts they implicitly expected would happen, vs which parts were explicitly in the plan, vs what instructions were propagated to the men, vs what actually happened.
Between any two of those, surely not all, surely not none.
Effective altruists wrote the semiconductor export restrictions
Is there anywhere else a public discussion of this is happening besides that impenetrable tumblr thread? This seems incredibly significant.
What an absolutely fucking wild thing to off-handedly drop as a polemical jab in an off-topic subthread lol
The K-pop invasion of the west was suspiciously closely preceded by the height of popularity of the competitive SC2 scene, which was of course extremely heavily Korean, with the most prestigious tournaments being Korean productions in Korea often with a heavy K-pop presence (most prominently a song that goes "GG GG baby baby baby").
I think this is underexplored.
<200m away from al-Ahli Hospital (the one from 2 days ago)
Same church 1 week ago: "Posts falsely claim Israel bombed historic church in Gaza"
Is the new season of Star Trek: Picard worth watching?
For the type of curmudgeonly old trekkie who had to stop watching Discovery after 1 season because it was genuinely too hurtful to see that done to something he loves, and has only experienced any of Picard through the noble sacrifice of the Red Letter Media reviews?
I stopped watching the RLM reviews halfway through this season because it seemed like it might actually end up worth watching the show, but the problem is now I can't check in to see their final verdict without having it spoiled.
bro
6mo ago
Jesus christ lol. Are you being deliberately obtuse? I am asking "was the guy aiming for the specific person he hit, or just firing wildly into the crowd", "did he leave the house in the morning intending to shoot up that mall or did he see it on the way", "was he trying to start a race war, or to impress Jodi Foster". Not as a leading question but because I want to know what literally happened.
Surely it's all about the site's contents as AI training data. This and the Reddit shit. It's silly to try to discuss this with that unmentioned or as an afterthought.
The dynamics between Putin, Prigozhin, and Shoigu/Gerasimov make zero military sense.
But they make a great deal of sense from the perspective of regime preservation.
This is now the most logical frame through which to analyze the Ukraine War IMO.
I now think this is the likeliest scenario.
Putin wants to wind down the war, Shoigu/Gerasimov to be the scapegoats for Russia's territorial losses, and Wagnerites the enforcers against the Z extremists who don't get the memo in time.
Though he seems to be considering it more straightforwardly 3h later (not necessarily at odds with above)
Does he have an account here? @akarlin
RWA:
Option 1: It's a PsyOp to cover up a serious Russian offensive
Option 2: We're going to WW3 with NATO
Option 3: It's real & Putin is using Prigozhin to get rid of Shoigu
Option 4: It's real & Wagner has actually begun a coup d'etat
Option 5: It's behind-the-curtain negotiations & gets nipped in the bud before it escalates
Though of course this is only the dregs of pro-Russian commentary that makes it into english.
On War Tunnels (6 minute video; mild practical speculation by an American who fought in tunnels with the Kurds in Iraq and is now a military advisor in Ukraine)
The video is not super content-heavy, but the general point to consider here is that people may be massively overestimating what Israel can do on the ground even if they take the gloves off.
Gaza's like 4x as dense as Stalingrad.
That PDF is 400 pages long and not text-searchable, but it's obvious from the order of magnitude that this must be something like "every recorded medical event in tens/hundreds of millions of people" and completely meaningless without comparison to base rates.
It took having been reading every post of yours for like 3 months leading up to that one (sidenote: lol) to have had even the slightest chance of barely beginning to understand what the fuck you were talking about, at the time. 7 months of lost context and cognitive decay later, there is no chance I am ever getting there again. I'd need it spoonfed to me like an idiot.
It seems extremely implausible to me that the Yuddites are only pretending to be suicidally hopeless and their real motivating goal is eternal tyranny, rather than that, rightly or wrongly, eternal tyranny is sincerely the only alternative they see to certain doom.
How many tokens are in Twitter? How many new ones are generated per day? What proportion are they of humanity's total output? What are they worth?
I just made my first comments on the site, and, from checking in incognito, they did not appear publicly at first. This was the case for both a top-level comment in the CW thread (which stayed invisible for hours, overnight), and a reply (which stayed invisible for a few minutes).
In both cases, the comments only appeared publicly after I reported them myself (as in pressed the "Report" button on the comment, and submitted one to request they be "approved" or whatever the mechanism in action here is), but also in both cases they appeared publicly within seconds of reporting them. So either the mods are extremely on the ball in responding to reports (but up-to-hours off the ball in approving new comments unprompted), or it was the act of reporting them which automatically caused them to publically appear (which leaves it frustratingly unclear what would have happened to them if I hadn't self-reported them).
I doubt I would have been singled out/shadowbanned since I hadn't done anything yet, so I assume it is representative of the (new?) user experience. It is off-putting.
It would help to know what the intended behaviour is here and what to expect.
Travis Kelce’s manufactured rise to fame
The Chiefs have been in 4 of the last 5 Superbowls (winning 3), and 6 of the last 6 AFCCGs. Kelce has the most postseason receiving yards in NFL history. And Mahomes is famously weird and uncharismatic.
What the fuck was this responding to:
Yo Shavit @yonashav 7h
Replying to @rharang
We very intentionally are not sharing it widely yet - the hope is that a mini public demo kicks a social response into gear
I can't see the tweet it's replying to. Yonadav Shavit is "Head of Preparedness" at OpenAI.
Surely just about actual use access to Sora, right?
YouTuber Montemayor, one of the very best producers of the "battle told via map" genre who releases about 1 very high quality video per year, released Battle of the Eastern Solomons: Told from the American POV today. It's pretty good.
Check out his Midway from the Japanese Perspective first if you haven't.
Fascinating thread on the genetics of the area from a few days ago:
Closest people [to samples recovered from the Bronze Age and Iron Age Levant] are usually Christian Levantines > Many Jewish groups > Muslims > Other Jewish groups
Palestinian Christians are almost genetically indistinguishable from Roman-era Levantines, people of the time of Jesus Christ, the Apostles, etc.
Almost all Jews, Christians, and Muslims of the region carry noticeable Bronze Age/Iron Age Levantine ancestry. This means that almost all modern Levantines are at least partially (some overwhelmingly), descended from Israelites or people genetically indistinguishable from them
As you can see Samaritans (yes they still exist, but they are dying out) are almost indistinguishable from not just Israelites, but even Bronze Age Canaanites. Very impressive continuity. But it comes at the cost of serious inbreeding. There are only a couple hundred of them left
Everyone else (Jewish, Christian, Muslim) has mixed non-Middle Eastern ancestry, the majority of it being European (Greek and even Bactrian ancestry that entered the Levant after Alexanders conquests). Muslim Levantines also carry ~3-5% sub-Saharan African ancestry on average that Christians and Jews mostly lack, and a noticeable chunk of Arabian ancestry, but that is lower than most people would expect.
The reason Christian Levantines are closest the Canaanites, Israelites, Roman-era Jews, etc is because they never relinquished their religion, and therefore never mixed with other groups after the Islamic invasion. Those Christians who converted to Islam now had opportunities to mix with other Muslims, and even slaves from sub-Saharan Africa.
This is what it looks like happened.
The Bronze Age inhabitants of the region were Canaanites, Amorites, Eblaites, etc. The ancestors of the Akkadians, Babylonians, Assyrians, Chaldeans, etc also came from the BA Levant.
A subgroup of Canaanites became Israelites (they are genetically indistinguishable from Canaanites). This subgroup remains largely similar to each other until Alexander conquers the entire Middle East.
Then, Greek and Bactrian ancestry start entering the Levant. At this time, Samaritans split off from the ancestors of Jews, Christians, and Muslims of the Levant.
They are the first to split off. This is because they barely mixed with the incoming Greek/Bactrian groups.
The new population Roman-era Levantines are almost indistinguishable from modern day Palestinian Christians, Lebanese Christians, etc. They stay like this till the modern period, refusing to mix with Muslim Arabs (they weren't allowed to regardless) and not usually being allowed to own slaves.
This is where Levantine Muslims (Palestinian Muslims, Lebanese Muslims, etc) split off from the Christians - some Christians convert to Islam. They are now allowed to own slaves from Africa, and mix with Arabians and Egyptians and other Muslim groups. They carry some of this foreign ancestry.
Before, during, and after Alexanders invasion you had many other Jewish groups of course, splitting off and going to Europe and North Africa, being forcibly deported to Mesopotamia, etc. They are the only ones who either
1: didnt convert to the Arabian religion
2: didnt convert to the new religion that was formed/evolved through Judaism
The truth is, everyone in the Levant is overwhelmingly descended from ancient Jews, or at the very least those genetically indistinguishable from ancient Jews.
Lots of Muslims like to exaggerate their relationship to Arabians, since that is where their religion is from, and their prophet was an Arabian. The truth, for better or worse, is that almost none of them carry much Arabian ancestry. Only Negev Bedouins and Yemenite Jews do.
A bunch of people then take him to task in the comments for not sufficiently addressing Ashkenazi Jews.
One thing that's confusing me here is his statement [slightly trimmed] "the Jewish groups splitting off and going to Europe and North Africa, etc, are the only ones who didnt convert to either Islam or Christianity". Were there no jews who never left the area but also never converted to christianity or islam? Did they just not exist, or are they just missing from these genetic samples (perhaps they so completely mixed with immigrant jews that they're no longer a distinguishable population?), or am I just blind? The closest included sample geographically is Syrian_Jew.
My understanding is that TPOT is just a group with similiar cultural sensibilities and references, senses of humor, political tolerations (if not political views), interests, etc, that agglomerated together on Twitter. One point of commonality that was found to be extremely widespread among them (though I don't think was explicitly foundational) was that, at some point in the past, most of them had dipped into the rat-o-sphere to widely varying degrees, to the point that "postrat" is an effectively equivalent term.
I'm sure there are people who unironically think that trans women are the ONLY women
Because they are among the only people in modern society who undertake a mortifying and harrowing coming of age ritual that ends with choosing a new identity and induction into a rarefied community, trans women are men and cis men are not.
Which aspects of what happened were intentionally part of the plan?
More options
Context Copy link