dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
No bio...
User ID: 583
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
2d ago
Moreso than Burning Man? I've never come across more people that seem to have rape fantasies and not the cnc kind than at Burner adjacent communities.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
2d ago
My no evidence inclination is that events like Burning Man have lower incidence of child sex abuse not because of any enlightened attitudes about nudity and sex but because it's such a challenging logistical and environmental ordeal to attend that it filters out a lot of low class dirtbags that would do child sex abuse.
Vibecamp is probably a similar demographic argument. I think it's plainly true that no sex tent or nudity would reduce sex abuse further. But I'm not sure the rates meaningfully matter once you've filtered all of the shitty people out to begin with.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
3d ago
If they had secular goals, maybe. But, they're ruled by theocrats trying to advance the Islamic revolution. They're not gonna kill all the Jews and the rest of the infidels with conventional weapons.
So it seems we were lucky to return to the pre-war status quo, even Trump had to tepidly admit that he bit off more than he can chew and Iran's regional dominance is not going anywhere.
Not that this was anyone's plan but we learned/reconfirned some things.
- Alternate oil routes: solid idea.
- Anti-mining tech: in
- Anti-drone tech: in
- If you're going to decapitation strike a regime do it before they brutally suppress a popular uprising
- The Gulf states seem pretty useless
- Europe seems pretty useless
- Starlink: seems easily jammed
- Can we develop alternate energy faster already
- Blockading Iran's blockade: seems like reasonably good counter-leverage
Iran learned some things too
- SOH blockade: surprisingly good leverage, invest heavily in that tech
- Houthi relationship: develop at all costs, must be able to shut down red sea route
- Moar ballistic missiles
- Moar drones
- Hamas attack on Israel: pretty costly!
- Nuclear program: yes
- Internet blackouts: very effective
- China: probably a great economic ally on a lot of gear
- Russia: useless
All in, I think life for Iranians gets steadily worse from here but at least they can say they're scoring points for the Islamic revolution.
Iran can blockade the strait to cause pain but it's not limitless. We can blockade them back and inflict pain too. Eventually both sides lose the will to keep going, but it might be an inconvenience to Trump whereas it's a lot more punishing for Iran.
Anyway, maybe we can try a decapitation strike again in a few years and see if we do any better at
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
5d ago
I'm grinding through a several week long session now. Opus is doing a better than human job but in little bits and bobs, but I was able to switch to Fable a few days ago and it was just chewing through it. It would sit and think for 10 minutes and then rip out a 700 line delta across 6 C++ files that would compile the first time and nail the feature in an iteration or two. It just kept that pace up.
Two days later Fable was yanked away from me while it was in the middle of implementing a feature and Opus couldn't figure out how to finish it with the uncommitted code that Fable had left. It just stashed it and started over and I told it it's late and to go to bed.
I feel a bit of loss over it
Opus has been doing a fine job but after a day or so with it it was clear Fable was significantly better.
To whitepillers: is there an argument for why I'm wrong that doesn't boil down to "you don't get it, chud, it's the New Economy! The Singularity is just around the corner! All the rules are obsolete!"? This argument is verboten, because this is pretty much what people say with every bubble.
The AI boom is mostly funded by private capital so the blast radius should be limited. Does anyone need to bail out Google or Facebook or Microsoft or Oracle? Nah.
The 2008 crash saw banks imploding due to correlated defaults and the government needed to bail them out because the economy needs banks to exist. This was pretty bad but the crash was only about 50% from a 2007 high and recovered within 5 years.
A crash to pre-AI markets in 2023 is one possible regression, which would be about a 40% drop. But this would mean ignoring all utility provided by AI aside from speculative gains.
The biggest unknowns are if a mildly bad crash causes a general mood of fear and depression to set in and make things much worse. Also, a big implosion in private capital could reveal unanticipated systemic risks.
I can't really get a clear picture either way.
Thanks for the detailed response!
What router OS are you planning on using for the Linux box?
Debian. Seems like I just need dnsmasq, nftables, wireguard and networkd to party.
Might convince myself glibc is too risky for an internet facing host and switch to Alpine.
You could use one of the technically-standard home networking wall panels, but they are NOT deep, and I wouldn't put much equipment in it if any at all.
Oh, I think I'd probably just put a patch panel on the wall so that the runs between the switch and the jacks don't directly tug on the switch itself. The switch could go in an 16U cabinet or some such.
and not have to worry about your equipment being out in the cold.
Actually, since we're planning to put our home gym in the garage (and no cars) y'all have convinced me that me and the machines would be a lot happier with a dessicant dehumidifier. Between that and an short cabinet with top exhaust we should be good. But I wouldn't have thought of this at all without posting!
Apple gear is particularly poorly behaving in terms of dealing with complex home networks. A lot of Apple/HomeKit/AirPlay stuff assumes a mostly flat LAN and can get grumpy across VLANs unless you set up mDNS/Bonjour reflection carefully... and I couldn't tell you how to do that, I'm still figuring it out myself. IoT devices that go straight to the cloud can probably do fine just with internet access.
I don't have much Apple gear and this sounds like one more reason not to start! Thanks ^_^
People love Proxmox, I have a soft spot for XCP-NG, not because I have any love for Xen but because their management and backup platforms are more flexible.
I used to virtualize stuff on my beefy box but moved away from it since taking stable and delta efficient backups was a lot more convoluted than I'd like. I ended up moving each service into its own user and hermetically sealing their dependencies to the user account so that a top-level kopia would take efficient enough snapshots. It's not quite nix-level but close enough that I should probably ask Claude to convert each one to a nix flake. (Some things like Immich are in docker and I just live with that, the important stuff is in a mapped filesystem anyway). Efficient matters because I rsync them off-site once a month. I plan to do the backups weekly once I have fiber with better upload speeds.
One thing you could do with your BEEFY linux box is run your own DNS, with ad-block capabilities.
I'm thinking this should live on the router since I'm a lot more likely to reboot or rebuild the beefy Linux box.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
9d ago
People hate finance bros too are you kidding.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
9d ago
Agreed, it has a lot going for it even if the lyrics are a bit try-hard.
I set up UniFi stuff for my brother's company but the APs weren't very reliable either, though the shininess of the rest of their stack was pretty nice. I'm mostly just going to edit iptables rules by hand like a neckbeard though.
I have a few recommendations for the Omada\ APs today in 2026 so I'll take a risk with them. I would probably just disable any smart stuff they try to do and manually set their power and see if it'll let me get away with it.
A box with a fan is a solid idea. Ditto for the UPS.
I got a new house. It's significantly bigger than my last house. I think I'm looking at like 5-10 hours of home network engineering to get it put together. Please critique my stack.
- Fiber hookup in my garage
- Router: fanless small Linux PC with dual Intel NICs in garage
- Omada 8 port PoE switch, also in garage
- Omada WiFi APs, probably 3 at various spots in the house
- One beefier Linux box for home services/storage on Ethernet: Immich, that home YouTube clone, etc
The house has existing coax cable runs to various rooms, which must go. I'm thinking of taping cat6 cable to the coax terminals and pulling them to try to re-run those paths as cat6. This way the coax jacks are replaced with Ethernet jacks. Avoids drilling new holes. Have them all terminate at the switch in the garage. Can put either full desktops or APs on the ends.
I'm planning on 2 vlans. One for the humans and home services. The other vlan for cloud-IoT shit that can only access the Internet and not even cross talk to each other.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
11d ago
I was going through a terrible breakup that involved a big betrayal when this song came out and I couldn't listen to it without my heart rate racing. It captured that "my whole world is turned upside down" energy too well. I think that's what people are relating to.
I'm fine listening to it now.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
13d ago
I find him a lot more relatable than anyone in Trump's orbit, that's for sure. Guessing he'd immediately relapse if he went anywhere near a tough job though
Come to think of it, I'm surprised politicians and other figures aren't caught doing crack with black prostitutes in DC constantly. They're away from their homes and families, stressed, and surrounded by poor black people.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
18d ago
I'm skeptical of math as a field and how Tao practices it.
This is an important concern.
Tao has almost certainly been offered dump trucks full of cash to join quant funds. Perhaps if he made global derivatives arbitrage a few points more efficient he could save every American's retirement fund a few hundred bucks a year. Would that be a better contribution to humanity than whatever he's doing now?
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
19d ago
I thought I was very online but I have absolutely no idea what y'all are talking about.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1mo ago
We should have kept everyone on the boat in the middle of the ocean and resupplied them by helicopter.
My first instinct was to just firebomb it but your plan sounds a lot more humane. OTOH, how do you decide when to let them come back from sea? Given the long incubation hantavirus could circulate on the boat for years, right? At some point the people confined there have an incentive to lie about positive tests being negative?
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1mo ago
Having spent time in southern Italy I don't buy the historic narratives. Singapore was a swamp long after the historic issues impacted Southern Italy.
Wasn't Singapore already a full-blown British colony (the better kind) with a large ethnically Chinese population with deep mercantile tradition to draw on?
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1mo ago
Not the same genes. Haiti is ~90% sub-Saharan African, the DR closer to 40%.
I'll give that to you, though if we're going to contend a drop of African blood can turn South Italy into a wasteland imagine what 40% should be doing to the DR.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1mo ago
Mamma mia, get a load of this guy with the No True HBDer argument. Fuggadaboutit.
Isn't the South originally Indo-European descended? Greeks, Romans, Normans, the Aragonese?
lean toward the explanation that seems to correlate to poverty basically 100% of the time across contexts
I don't think you're trying very hard. North/South Korea, East/West Germany, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Same genes, different institutions, very different outcomes.
The Haiti/DR case is especially clean: same island, similar populations, 6-7x GDP gap, and Haiti spent 122 years paying France for having freed itself. Hold genes constant, vary institutions, get massive divergence. The "100%" claim doesn't survive contact with five minutes of thought.
I'm not memorizing hundreds of rationales, I just actually looked for counterexamples that ruined a seductive hobby horse.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1mo ago
Could you appreciate the brain drain argument? Going by my own family, something like 17 out of 20 of my parents' generation left Sicily for America to start a new life away from the rest of the europoors.
This should tell you a lot about the psychology of those who chose to remain (though I love some of them). If you have enough ambition to paint your 700 square foot "house" with no windows that was a carriage repair shop in the 1940s, you might also have enough ambition to say fuck this lets leave for America.
Yes, absolutely.
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