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There is a great new Substack article about the populist backlash to AI data centers by Jasmine Sun. She also did an interview with Ezra Klein for those of you who like audio content.
I like the article because Sun speaks fluent Silicon Valleyish while also taking the time and effort to visit and talk to the people on the ground in the rural Midwest instead of condecending at them from the coasts. She asks an important question: why precisely do people hate data centers so much?
Looking only at the statistics, AI land use and water use issues are fake. Nowhere is running out of land, and nowhere (West of San Antonio at least) is running out of water. Are the people in these communities stupid? Do they not know how to shut up and multiply?
It turns out that a lot of the fear and anger stems from a combination of distrust and PTSD from deindustrialization. An interesting example is Janesville, Wisconsin, a town with a giant concrete slab in the middle of it where the GM plant used to be.
Fascinating. The collapse of the auto industry in 2008 was apparently so bad that it is better to prevent industrial development alltogether in order to avoid the risk of another collapse. It almost makes sense until you think about it for 30 seconds.
Some of the objections Sun hears in other towns fare a bit better.
This is the steelman of the anti-data center position. People are worried that the big companies proposing data centers are going to Foxconn them and not deliver the supposed benefits.
One of the things that comes across especially clear in the Ezra Klein interview is just how unprepared the AI companies were for the backlash. They didn't realize how sketchy it comes across to insist on NDAs with local officials when negotiating deals. They thought, as a straightforward application of Coase's Theorem would tell you, that any bumps in the road could be ironed out by handing over a big bag of money. It turns out that people don't work that way. It feels like a bribe, and Americans do not like being bribed.
Surely there's a town with a data center they can go ask how good it was for them? Or do they all have NDAs too?
Seems to me to be a perfectly solvable problem, just show the value. If they can deliver jobs and tax money to localities, they will be welcomed. If it's all a pyramid scheme to saddle local governments with tech companies' expansion costs, that will come out too. Just takes some time.
Are these new datacenters really that different from the ones we've been building for literally decades? AWS and Google have had giant server farms longer than anyone was really looking at machine learning like today. Heck, I remember people complaining about the NSA's data center in Utah slurping up all our emails, not its water usage. Complaining about this seems a new idea, but I don't recall too many complaints about the facilities previously. On the other hand, maybe it's like fracking, which wasn't new a decade ago, but really took off at scale.
On the gripping hand, I'm really not sure who's paying for all these new data centers, how they intend to pay the bills if AI tokens are fully commoditized, or why they're being put close to neighborhoods. AWS has existed in multiple locations (they don't disclose exact addresses, but it's probably not a single building) for a long time, and doesn't seem to have garnered quite the same level of complaints.
A bit different. They use significantly more power and they're being built in such a hurry that the classical hyperscaler commitments to doing it carbon neutrally or with highly sophisticated cooling that leverages natural advantages and keeps power draw down are being dispensed with.
A famous example is the one Elon built in a hurry where they placed a ton of natural gas generators on site because the local grid couldn't supply them, possibly in violation of environmental impact rules.
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