dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
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User ID: 583
In 1964 there were 458,000 measles cases, and 421 deaths, over a smaller population, no lockdowns.
How barbaric. Our ancestors were truly uncivilized.
Isn't it, compared to influenza, 10x as infectious, with 10x the hospitalization rate and 5-10x as deadly?
If we had a vaccine that reliably stopped influenza (instead of the bullshit yearly one people try taking which misses 75% of the time) I can't imagine why we wouldn't all be on it? But the measles vaccine is a lot more reliable than the influenza vaccine? And you don't have to take it annually?
It seems like a tragedy that our society is rejecting the measles vaccine. What am I missing?
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
11hr ago
I mean, 99.9% chance none of that happened so I'm okay with saying if your state is that competent and brazen you deserve to dominate us.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1d ago
I'm still skeptical, as it ascribes to netanyahu/idf intelligence a level of power that seems unreasonable on multiple layers, but it would be the very, very funniest writing of this season if the thing that gave away his cover was a public (now-private) fortnite profile, of all things.
If the Israelis busted Epstein out of jail and left a body double and he's just been hiding out in Israel this whole time they deserve to rule the world.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
5d ago
It's quite a mindfuck to have AI produce like 700 lines of code that work on the first try, which would cost like $500 to have a human write, but if you ask it to write a 1000 word essay it goes by in a blur that seems okay at first but if you read it with your brain on it sounds bad and wrong.
In truth if you look at the code more closely you could make it much prettier and more sensible but it all kind of works well enough that you don't care. Whereas it's really hard to make a written essay acceptable.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
5d ago
Someone recently claimed that people here would greatly outperform the market given their higher-than-average intelligence.
IMO the way to beat the market with your higher than average intelligence is to either bust your ass and build something great that people need or join a quant fund and work in a mentorship with other traders and use their capital and proprietary technology stack. Everything else is just spinning a roulette wheel.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
5d ago
ie “if you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich?” was a favorite discussion topic both on the SSC open thread and on this forum in the early days, and still comes up occasionally.
The problem with trying to profit off of being smart is that
(a) Prices are set by the marginal trader, not by the average. There's a lot of stupid people pushing prices every which-way. It's true that dumb people create what could be opportunity, but other dumb people also ruin the opportunity
(b) Related but different, is there often isn't enough liquidity to exploit your information.
Sort of tangentially, something that comes up a lot of the time in like, any real business I've looked into, is that local competition is crazy and desperate enough to disregard regulation. They get away with it most of the time, but I'm just not comfortable risking six figure fines (or worse) just to make a go at house flipping.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
6d ago
Why isn't trespassing law enough at the minimum? The minister says "you are trespassing and must leave" and if they don't they become arrestable? That should shut protests down plenty well.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
6d ago
I just have no idea how much enshittification Microsoft can get away with due to lock in effect, and I don't think anyone does
A lot. Businesses will do anything to avoid migrating to a new platform. It is a tried and true business model for PE funds to buy platforms, fire the founder and quote contract renewals at some major proportion of each client's disposable income and they will just bend over and take it.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
6d ago
At least one site claims the "Girls FTW!" email is fake and does not appear in the release.
Sounds nice. I live nowhere near Minneapolis and protestors have been teargassed twice three times this week. They keep trying to break into/smash up the federal building, which is in the middle of town and on the way to a lot of errands, so I've been pinging subreddits and the news every time I go out to see what's up.
Businesses were pressured to close on Friday out of "solidarity", a good number did, with others sheepishly putting up signs explaining they're staying open because their employees need a paycheck, in the hopes they would not end up on the 'supports MAGA' shitlist.
Checking up on last night's carnage, it seems counter protestors showed up, open carrying and each side was recording the other promising to expose them all on social media.
The terminally online mentally ill folks have broken containment, it's just not very evenly distributed yet.
Prediction markets probably have no good things. The author of The Laws of Trading wrote about why prediction markets can't deliver what they promise. A bit technical on the trading side but should be navigable by laypersons.
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