faceh
10mo ago
Thing is, nobody ever gets fired or cancelled or arrested for coming to the defense of a woman, be she deserving or not.
Whereas getting the reputation as the person who thinks women should sacrifice for men sometimes, even if they don't want to, will get you some sidelong glances at best, and fired, cancelled, and possibly arrested at worst.
faceh
11mo ago
Well let me ask the specific possibility, if the 70-year-old eschews striking and just attempts to grab the opponent, what are the chances they are able to lock down the fight and just throw the female to the ground and hit her there? No elegant takedown, just grabbing on and throwing her down.
I'd speculate that a 175 pound geezer could sit on Amy Broudhurst's chest and obviate most of her cardio advantage right there.
faceh
11mo ago
How many street fights involve seventy year old men
Virtually zero! But not quite zero.
So my priors are not well informed on this but I still have priors.
So the speculation is fun! I have to consider a number of disparate data points and project outcomes into a realm of uncertainty and argue my case based on inductive logic and reasoning from whatever similar situations exist.
faceh
11mo ago
Yes indeed, I granted in the hypothetical:
Cardio will 100% be a factor here, but also, old man strength is REAL
I don't know how much the cardio will help if she actually gets caught by the opponent. She can certainly try to outrun him the whole time.
But again, 70 isn't inherently an age of fragility and decrepitude. It would be for many, I grant. But part of the reason I zeroed in on THAT age is its just high enough that we might question the outcome. I do reassert that I would bet on the 70-year-old, but I could lose money on it.
faceh
11mo ago
Yep. Have to assume that both sides are allowed to use whatever tactics and techniques they like or else the victor probably wins on a technicality.
Ironically the main thing that a trained female has going for her is less fear of being punched in the face, whereas an untrained guy might flinch and cower when he gets struck.
But the other thing an untrained male might do is flail and swing wildly, and the female CANNOT afford to take an errant hit by pure luck.
Sure... except golf isn't REALLY a 'rich mans game' anymore. Happy Gilmore is a bit outdated in that respect.
I happen to have already commented on this at length.
I am by no means rich and I grew up practicing golf along with a bunch of other sports. My solidly blue collar dad golfs all the time.
It's not like, say, Polo or high end motorsports where the barriers to entry are insurmountable.
Yes, rich people REALLY like golf. But to pretend that being good at golf makes someone less relatable to regular dudes is definitely not aware of actual golf culture.
faceh
11mo ago
By the time you're resorting to pure brute force you've probably lost so much legitimacy that you're asking for revolution or coup.
Of course this doesn't mean it'll actually happen.
faceh
11mo ago
Right, but its simultaneously hard to understand why their immediate response to seeing the boiling water in her hand is "I'm will shoot you in the face."
I guess I'm suggesting that their failure to control the scene was a problem. Okay, they don't see the boiling water as a danger until she's holding it. Maybe that's a training flaw in itself.
If they didn't think she was posing any danger prior to that point, I'm confused as to why that escalated to "I'm going to shoot" you nigh instantaneously. If they DID think she was a possible danger, then just keep her on the couch and shut off the stove off yourself, don't let her roam around to, e.g. grab a knife or set something on fire.
faceh
1hr ago
It is interesting to think about what sort of evidence you personally would need to bump your personal probability of "God" existing to like 99%.
There's a bit of a problem in that '1 off' events can be 'explained' as an extremely rare confluence of factors that produced an unlikely (but not impossible!) occurrence. And events that seem impossible but are repeated with some kind of regularity can be studied and eventually 'explained.'
And a lot of things CAN be written off as hallucinations or misperceptions of an otherwise normal event.
For me, I'd count "Reviving someone who was proclaimed dead, on demand" as pretty high up the scale of things that can't be explained (yet) with current science, and thus proof of 'divine' intervention.
faceh
2hr ago
Don't even have to go to a specific site for it.
I have an OKCupid account that I haven't really touched in over a year, and whenever I log in I'll have a handful of likes from Filipina ladies.
faceh
3hr ago
Alas, I'd probably have to extend attorney-client privilege in order to get her to talk, so they'd have to offer me a ton of money to breach that with the goods.
faceh
1d ago
I tentatively agree, but in the sense that "people need to reach a breaking point before they will return to the thing that they've been avoiding all along."
The church has the advantage of having been around for centuries and centuries, so they will be the default option people return to when most else fails.
But in the meantime I think the phones will probably win the attention game.
Ha, I would have guessed it was for Apple, given all the effort Apple went to casting themselves as the brand for misunderstood geniuses and creative weirdos.
Literally using the name of the product in the song is a little on the nose.
faceh
5d ago
Not quiiiiite true.
The actual solution to the final exam involved Harry casting a spell directly on Quirrell, for example. If the spell effect were small enough I'd guess its something that he could actually do without triggering a major problem, OR he could have someone else do it for him, which is his MO for almost all the other stuff he pulls outside of the Azkaban rescue.
And Quirrell's initial motivation was to create a worthy opponent to play with so he wouldn't be bored in eternal immortality. And that only changed once he learned of a Prophesy that would DIRECTLY threaten that immortality, with Harry being the trigger.
Adjusting Harry's thinking so that he wouldn't discover Quirrell's secret before Quirrell had won him over is well within bounds of that motivation.
faceh
5d ago
Didn't he explain that in parseltongue, which is the language that allegedly prevents the speaker from lying.
Of course, the reflexive reliance on the killing curse is indicative enough on its own.
Oh, I also remember that my other theory was that Harry himself had been specifically confunded to be unable to make any direct observations about Quirrel's true nature, which is why he was seemingly unable to make basic reasoning/connections about the guy even as evidence mounted.
And then there's a moment in Chapter 104, right before the finale pops off for real:
"Wait!" Harry blurted.
The Potions Master's hand hovered about his robes. "Why?" said the Potions Master.
"I... I just think you probably shouldn't call them..."
In a blur, the Potions Master's wand was in his hand. "Nullus confundio!" A black jet darted out and hit Harry, striking in the direction Harry had already started to evade. There followed four other spells, containing words like Polyfluis and Metamorphus; and for those Harry politely stood still.
Snape literally hit him with a spell for dispelling confusion caused by another spell, and then SHORTLY THEREAFTER (mere minutes later) Harry puts together the entire puzzle of Quirrel's role in everything.
Just really interesting timing, that.
I think EY intended Harry's issue seeing Quirrel for evil as an example of a massive failure mode for rationalists (I really don't want this thing to be true so I will purposefully avoid accepting information that would make me update that way). But it also makes sense that Quirrelmort might take the extra precaution of screwing up Harry's thought processes just enough to avoid catching on too quickly.
faceh
9d ago
To an extent, I'm using the availability heuristic based on my initial impressions of white identitarians as I remember them.
The Northwest Front was my first exposure to this particular approach to White Nationalism, and while I wouldn't call the members associated with it dysgenic, well, you can see how effective they are at website design. There's a sheen of incompetence over the whole affair.
Yeah.
Even if you assume there's a large contingent of white people who actively would prefer to live away from most minorities... the ones who are in a position to openly state and act on that preference are probably not the high-quality human capital that most would want to live around, either.
Or they've made their white identity the entire basis of their personality and those folks tend to be tedious.
faceh
14d ago
That pushes it back a step, since I can generally guess at what she believes is 'pretty' when she dresses up.
faceh
20d ago
Yeah. Need to be exhibition rounds in UFC events that are just there to be a spectacle, not everything has to be completely serious.
faceh
21d ago
That'd be interesting. Recently watched a video that shows that Jiu Jitsu loses utility when you're not on soft/forgiving ground.
If it was 2 v. 2 I'd prefer some kind of tag-team format, since actual two v. twos inevitably turn into 1 v. 2s, which always end badly for the one.
They seem to be in a decent spot right now balancing overall safety for competitors while still allowing some bloodsport, and obviously it is in nobody's interest for competitors to get devastatingly hurt on the regular. It runs counter to their strategy of getting mainstream appeal, but I'd say they could afford to do fewer large events per year and focus more on really stacking the big ones up.
faceh
1mo ago
Its funny, a couple years back I joked about setting up a GPT3 instance trained on my posts and then just retiring from the internet at large.
I wonder how many people have already done that.
faceh
1mo ago
There's a BIG question as to why none of those 5 relationships stuck it out and became permanent.
faceh
1mo ago
FWIW I'd support that.
But it would be almost impossible to enforce if a user can simply lie and SAY they did the math or thinking themselves.
So you end up with a situation where the only posts banned are the ones where the user is honest.
I would humbly suggest that there be a given day or thread set aside for posts that rely heavily on AI work.
Its interesting because we're entering a period where you can use a computer to determine with certainty the optimal moves in a given scenario. Stockfish does this for chess, but I'd wager that you could take any given computer game and machine learning could produce an engine which can beat 99% of human players at said game given the same input/output signals.
So if you want to give your players a crutch in game, just simplify the mechanics down to "let the computer suggest three mostly optimal moves, and let the player select from among them." Leave the actual mechanics of the game under the hood and invisible to the player, let the AI figure out how those mechanics play out, and then give the player the 'choice' that will actually move the state of play along.
In this scenario, the player who takes time to learn the mechanics and fiddle around under the hood and decides they will make decisions without the AI advisor is almost certainly at a disadvantage, there's no way they can discover a better move that the AI missed.
But is the player who is at least trying to develop mastery of the game having more fun?
MAYBE!
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