gakles
13d ago
Something something time preference.
I wouldn't want to live in a world where red won. Sociologically it would be an interesting question of how a society which thanos snapped itself would cope. Rugged individualism? "They were stupid and weak for picking blue, we're the smart ones."?
gakles
19d ago
Sorry, deleted my comment because I realised you were only responding to the belligerent claim, which is fair, my bad.
Aggressively and incessantly waging war
I think theres a distinction between the relations Israel and Iran had before and after both sessions of surprise aerial bombing. I guess my motte would be that both surprise attacks severely increased direct kinetic conflict, civilian suffering, and heightened tensions in and between both states, in a way that wasn't there on the days before both attacks.
wrt your two questions:
- Nope, and to slightly modify the common saying, I have jewish friends.
- Not really, I generally fall into "the trust the experts" crowd and Jewish people rarely directly advocate against the (these days dismantled) technocracy. If American military(and financial, etc.) support for Israel is considered public policy then I do blame a subsection of jews for that.
gakles
25d ago
We can't destroy Iran's capacity to build cheap drones without blockading land routes from China and every garage where they can be assembled in Iran. Russia can't do it to Ukraine, Ukraine can't do it to Russia, and we couldn't do it to the Houthis. Shahed type drones (not to mention mines) will always pose a threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz unless the Iranians on the coast no longer want to launch drones or are no longer there (read: invasion).
gakles
4mo ago
Source: 10 minute talk with expat uber driver
Anecdotally, my uber driver, an expat phd student in Australia was in favor of regime change but was skeptical the current protests would be effective, he argued the protesters didn’t have enough conviction and firepower. With current reports of the state killing several thousand protestors, I might have to agree with him. We’ll have to see if the people are willing to march in the streets when they can be mowed down by heavy machine guns.
gakles
4mo ago
Its just awful optically, only one shot actually went through the windshield, the rest were through the driver side window, meaning the car was past the officer by the time he really punched her ticket. By the time he unholstered, the wheels were pointing away from him, too. Not that this really matters, in that if she actually wanted to smoosh him or another officer she could have obviously turned the car around/started reversing and she had technically already acted to smoosh him (while turning so as to not smoosh him, but still). Doesn't change the legality, but it just looks awful. If the left had any credibility, this would be an excellent time to use it to argue against ICE overreach. Alas, they've cried wolf a few thousand times too many.
gakles
9mo ago
The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was published in 2007 and blew up the polisci academic space, it was the first book to openly address the odd relationship Israel has with the US (and the groups which make it possible). I think it gives a pretty good cross section of US-Israel relations as they were in 2007 and previously and is a great help explaining many of the current institutions/habits that have been placed under a great deal of stress since Oct. 7. While groups the like ADL have smeared it as antisemetic, it very much is not, it's not some conspiratorial "expose" but an academic investigation (one of the authors is a jew, too). Not very much emphasis wrt Gaza but they authors spend some time on Palestine.
gakles
9mo ago
Decisive Battles of the Twentieth Century. It's written like an encyclopedia, with 23 different chapters/entries which are each about 30 pages deep. The book is pretty light on exposition, the chapter on Kursk for example has about 2 pages detailing the previous 6 months fighting, but to it's credit the book also goes fairly in depth with force composition and the planning/implementation of Zitadelle. Despite this the authors can't resist describing the armor and gun of the "fearsome Panzerkampfwagen VI Tiger Ausf. H", which pleased me, but older and more serious historians might take issue with that bit of indulgence.
My other issue with the book is it's title, which seems to hint at setpiece battles resulting in the annihilation of the enemy, yet they include chapters on Verdun and The Marne, neither of which were conclusive. Also the book shoehorns in the Battle of Britain which I'm pretty ambivalent about. The greatest tragedy is that this book was published in 1976, so it doesn't have Desert Storm. Maybe it's because I recently read Robert M. Citino's Blitzkreig to Desert Storm: The Evolution of Operational Warfare but I would really like a re-release which focuses on maneuver warfare.
8/10
gakles
9mo ago
Summer fitness has been interesting. I was pretty excited to return home to my local gym after my second semester in college but was sorely disappointed. They changed the machines, it's way smaller than my college's gym, and the extra 15 minutes it takes to drive there really became an inconvenience. I went a few times with friends but haven't touched a barbell in a month and half now. Luckily, the scuffed pullup bar in our barn is still functional, so I've been doing 50-75 reps a day. I'll do 15 with strict form, then two sets of ten more relaxed ones, one with a wide grip and one without locking out my arms at the bottom. Doing this 2-3x a day only takes a total of around 30 minutes and its been great for my mental health. I'm probably resting too long between sets and certainly not pushing myself to failure but I've seen an increase in strength and my form is getting much better.
My calisthenics goal this summer is to do a front lever, which I'm finding incredibly difficult. Like I can do 15 pullups without breaking a sweat, but I can barely get my legs parallel to the ground. Once I got serious about the pullup routine I've been adding torso/leg raises to the start and while I'm seeing some improvement it's really tough. I watched a youtube video where a calisthenics guy recommended tucking your legs and focusing on your torso before working your legs out, and thats the routine I've roughly been following. I think the main think holding me back right now is core and back strength, each day it's 50/50 which gives out first.
Aesthetically, it took about a month to burn off the fat that finals seasons had added. My abs are pretty good and the wide grip pullups have finally built my deltoids in a way I never had before. These changes are probably also a result of my facial structure/body shifting away from teen and towards adult more generally. I'm pretty lean right now with no sign of stopping, the first month of the summer was pretty bad with lots of boba/fatty mexican food but the start of a summer fling made me lock in and I've pretty much cut out sweets. By the end of next month (when school restarts) if I stay on track I'll be in the best aesthetic shape of my life. The aforementioned summer fling also increased my self confidence by a lot, which will probably make me somewhat more outgoing back at school. It's nice to know people actually find you attractive.
One of my friends back at college is one of those people who is genetically inclined to run. I'm not, but I'm hoping when I get back to school I'll pick it up again. I ran every other day last fall semester, and I don't think I'll be able to do that with my workload but something like 2x a week would be nice. The consequences of bad cardio scare me. Going back to the college gym will be interesting. I know my "gym buddy" has been pretty consistent so far this summer, so we'll see how much his bench/squat outstrip mine, and how fast it'll take for me to catch back up.
gakles
11mo ago
To armchair off your armchair: I think the Israeli campaign is going to have a pruning effect on Iranian infrastructure and personnel. I bet the Iranians are drawing up blueprints for deep bunkers for leadership and whatever else will make their country more resistant to the current/next air offensive. Like any long term conflict, the smart survive and get promoted, exposed SAM's get blown up and new ones are put in hardened installations.
gakles
11mo ago
This is half culture war half Friday fun but I'm a bit more than halfway through reading The Israel Lobby by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt. Politics aside, it is a very well written political science book. If you wanted to, you could turn the book into a chart, with every thesis supported by claims which are in turn supported by (cited) evidence. This gives the book a sort of structure of hard logic, which I think is a consequence of Mearsheimer and Walt trying to avoid the charge of antisemitism (which the ADL and others have nonetheless leveled at them). The authors are very analytical and never take sides in any of the conflicts mentioned, the entire situation is presented from afar: "There is a network of individuals working to influence the US government to act in certain ways that they believe will benefit the state of Israel" (Part 2, which I haven't read yet, seems to be "why the polices the network advocates for may not serve the best interests of the US or Israel"). This book was published in 2007 so it's not a wholly contemporary analysis of the situation, but it provides a good recent history and background. Apparently the book sparked a good deal of scholarly debate, and I plan on reading some of the back-and-forth articles once I finish it. I think the book creates a strong argument that at least in in 2007 there was a network of individuals and organizations seeking to benefit Israel by influencing American opinion, discourse, and government policy. (Mods feel free to take this down if it's too spicy)
gakles
11mo ago
Isn’t the solution to reduce executive power so whoever wins the next election can’t just destroy whatever’s been built? On the other hand, much of what restrained the executive was convention and tradition, which has been razed in the last 10ish years. This would force policy to become constructive instead of spoils based. I’m not exactly hopeful those in power (and the voters) will choose deescalation.
gakles
11mo ago
My position of authority on this subject is pretty weak (1 american polisci class) so take this with a grain of salt.
I agree that fiscal responsibility is a component of right wing ideology, but I want to point out that the deficit is not just enlarged by govt spending but also by tax expenditures. When the govt encourages certain actions through tax deductions (say a student loan deduction) its losing potential revenue. Trumps 2017 tax bill reduced the fed revenue by an estimated 1.9 trillion over the following 10 years. Also studies (Tax Policy Center) say it didnt end up paying for itself. In this way the deficit can be expanded through means besides dems funding trans operas in latin america.
gakles
11mo ago
I'm home from college and it's looking like this summer is going to be a struggle, health wise. While it's nice to move back in with the parents and catch up with old friends, it's not nice to be back at the local gym, which has a single digit amount of machines and a single squat rack. So that sucks, but I have a decent pullup bar setup at home and I can get back into calisthenics. On the other hand, I have no clue how I'm going to control my food consumption. At college, I had unlimited swipes at a cafeteria which was open every day from 7am to 10pm, and I could grab chicken and rice or make a wrap whenever I wanted. Now that I'm home, I'm limited to whatever is in the fridge, which last I checked was a bunch of yogurt, tapioca, and some uncooked fajitas. Also, my mom has this bizzare compulsion to acquire sweet snacks which she doesn't even really eat, but which are tantalizingly available to me throughout the day (as I'm hanging out at home a lot). First it was See's Candies to celebrate me coming home, then it was cookies from a friend, and tomorrow theres going to be a cake from some relatives. It's not her fault and shes not doing it on purpose but it's just annoying that so many unhealthy sweets and always available to me. The college cafeteria had a baked goods section but I would always ignore it, and I wasn't studying 20 feet from it. I've already talked with my mom about stocking the fridge with more protein, and the fajita mix is a step in the right direction (once I cook it tomorrow) but its a pain that my (very successful) routine has been so thoroughly disrupted. I am enjoying the home cooked meals though :)
gakles
11mo ago
Yesterday I went for a bench PR with my friend, who I started going to the gym with. I did 175lb for 1 which I'm pretty proud of. When I first started benching four months ago I could barely do 135x1, the empirical growth in strength has been really neat to experience. The experience of benching is so different from everything else I do in day-to-day life, the absolute physical struggle, with very little way to cheat form-wise feels so pure in a way that very little else does.
I think people are acting more selfless than they really would be, and ofc voting was influenced by surrounding discourse, and of course the scenario is that red won, so some <50% of the population picked blue and died. The plurality of less-selfish people who voted blue, who then get thanos-snapped, were probably load bearing to some degree. I think there are a lot of negative externalities to red winning that red-pressers aren't considering.
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