hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
There is no pagan right, at least not in the red tribe(which is the sine qua non of american rightist politics for the forseeable future).
There are red tribers who do not practice Christianity, yes. There are red tribers who are secular, yes. But the red tribe itself rejects the idea that people who are not nominally Christian- or Jewish- can be a part of it.
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
I expect Talarico to win and Abbott to squeak by. Democrats in power will push catastrophically bad policy and a side of 'Fuck Trump'. I would expect Texas nationalists to be the big winner from this election- their policy ideas aren't really any better, but the low-IQ conspiracy theorist section of the GOP has to go somewhere, and they hate democrats too much to stay over there(to be fair, the feeling is mutual). Both of my this-term outcome predictions are weak, this is a very blue year and reps are stuck defending some smart but horrendously unpopular decisions about education and datacenters, but Texas GOP voters are very sticky.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
The optics of that are terrible, though.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
I mean, in his first term that was basically true.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
Well, actually, there's a couple of normal cyclical variations in the beef supply that all lined up at once- and while this was easily forseeable under Biden(I remember telling people that lamb would be cheaper than beef soon in 2023), the people actually doing it haven't voted for a democrat since the mid seventies.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
Well yes, people think patients shouldn't have to pay for healthcare. The only question is whether the government should pay instead.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
'Likes Paxton' is more of an ask than 'likes Trump' in Texas.
I voted for Paxton, because Talarico is terrible and I have a rule against caring about politicians' corruption issues. But I won't be too upset if Talarico wins- Paxton was a terrible candidate who probably would have been arrested and replaced with an Abbott appointee for corruption. Hinojosa would be the really terrible outcome.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
This is a thing that I try to explain over and over again to the very immigration concerned. There are some jobs which, in practice, require young-ish male labour. There are a certain number of American young males willing to do physical labour. That number is less than the number of jobs needing them; raising wages will not make the market clear, it'll just redistribute them from commercial fishing and oil drilling to whatever you raised wages in. The obvious solution is hondurans- they're willing to do physical work and the normal wages in these fields are already an exceptional deal for them. The alternative is using the criminal justice system to coerce lower class American men into these jobs. That, too, has its limits. But immigration into the US is driven largely by the market for physical laborers not clearing because there is a shortage of physical laborers.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
I would expect the helicopter glacier tour to be hard on the less dangerous end, because if eg unfavorable weather comes up you just tell the tourists it's cancelled today for weather concerns, raincheck.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
I'm not sure about that.
To start with, a huge chunk of road fatalities are due to alcohol. And 'drive sober and not when the bars are closing' cuts the danger from drunk drivers down by, like, 90 something percent. There's a few other basic steps to minimize road danger- drive a car and not a motorbike, etc- but the median driver already does them. You know that thing where the vast majority of drivers claim to be 'above average'? That's statistically true because the average is dragged down by habitual drunk drivers, text and drivers, etc.
But there's also lots of common recreational activities, at least in the US, that are at least as dangerous as driving. Horseback riding, power sports, and waterskiing, for example, are very popular red tribe activities, which are also fairly dangerous.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
My understanding is that med school is still difficult enough that he has to be genuinely smart to get through it, even with DEI.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
MINO's would also be hated by the red tribe, which is just generally islamophobic.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
I mean, I hate to break down actual Christian history vis a vis Israel and Judaism and who should control Jerusalem vs current Christian priorities.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
Iran actually has a very high rate of trans-ID. Often at gunpoint, they force homosexuals to transition.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
My understanding is that Taqiyya is basically the doctrine that Muslims are allowed to lie to avoid persecution. Not a feature of Christianity- Christians are expected to accept martyrdom- but also not a load-bearing pillar of some long term conspiracy.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
The activist base that put Paxton over the top wasn't 100% MAGA(although there were MAGA activists in it). The local far-right wanted to take down Cornyn because they were upset about his votes on gun control, and they joined up with MAGA fans of Paxton's 2020 lawsuits. But Cornyn could have lost to a block of wood in a Gun Owners of America hat- or at least come close.
I voted for Wesley Hunt.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
The republicans have learned that shutting the texas border down against federal orders will win them the hispanic vote.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
by 10%
In an R+14 state.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Ken Paxton is campaigning on 'Talarico is too far to the left on social issues'. This is, in fairness, essentially true by the standards of the Texas electorate.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Paxton did not win primarily off of Trump's endorsement; in actual fact Trump endorsed Paxton when his victory appeared inevitable and before then it had been conventional wisdom that he would endorse Cornyn. Paxton won the primary because GOP primary voters find gun control more objectionable than taking bribes.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
In the mind of Texas conservatives, these two things are reversed. Senators are those people on TV that accept bribes in exchange for not doing anything; the state government is more important to high propensity Texas GOP voters.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I voted for Ken Paxton in the general, but supported Wesley Hunt in the primary. Does that count?
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Cornyn lost because he supported gun control, and this was baked in before Trump endorsed against.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Democrats won't reverse SALT deductions- their own northeastern wing pushes for it.
Secular.
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