magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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11d ago
It takes years for it to come down, and some of the possible failure modes can't wait years (e.g. crop failure).
magic9mushroom
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12d ago
I mean, the key attribute here is the monotony of it. As he notes, n=1 isn't really enough to say much because the pairing is not exactly unknown. It takes a good memory, a reasonable amount of exposure to modern Western media, and some level of political awareness to, as you put it, "notice". Most people don't have that. TheMotte concentrates those who do, but it's still not everyone here.
As it happens, @George_E_Hale has just admitted that he's not exposed to all that much of this.
Some charity would be nice. Even a reasonable amount of SJers haven't noticed this sort of thing; I didn't until somewhat after I left.
magic9mushroom
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14d ago
The fact of the matter is, in ten years humans will only be necessary for maintaining tech infrastructure in that they will be the most efficient meatspace API for plugging things in for a while longer.
Don't neglect P(WWIII). "May" is correct; "will" is overconfident in BAU.
magic9mushroom
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17d ago
Lumping Canada, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia, Afghanistan, and Columbia the category "Abrahamic" and contrasting it with China and India (with much of the rest of SE Asia and Africa missing) is not how I see the world.
There's a difference between "the world" and "civilisations".
I'm not sure I'd put India in the list, though; definitely there is "civilisation that traces back to the Ecumene" and "civilisation that traces back to China", but India doesn't seem especially separate from the Ecumene (in particular Persia acted as something of a bridge, and Sanskrit is Indo-European).
magic9mushroom
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17d ago
Does the impetus of not having to atleast follow Rule 2 to ensure the continuation of your bloodline trickle down?
What is this rule?
magic9mushroom
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17d ago
I made the count and Kulak's essay is around 4000 words, while the natural selection post is about 1600 words, so I don't find the argument about length convincing.
I think the point is that @KulakRevolt just linked it; he didn't crosspost.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
Fair point.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
The reply rates are strong evidence, yes. And that does show the effect I expected where Indian women don't get the same effect as sub-Saharan African women.
Conceded.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
Yes. I saw such guides in that time period.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
Well, it's not painful anymore, and it does work for at least a while.
The problem is, 1) it causes temporary cognitive deficits (that aren't so temporary if you're doing it repeatedly), 2) it is one of the few things to cause permanent retrograde amnesia (i.e. it wipes a bit of your memories every time, and they're never coming back). Permanent and scary side effects are bad, because a certain percentage of people kill themselves out of revulsion (Ernest Hemingway, for instance, killed himself after a course of electroshock therapy). Once you take that term into account, you wind up with a cost-benefit profile that's not so pleasant.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
Buying the grease through an exchange program just seems way too expensive. Having the grease is pretty important though. They should probably just pay some popular youtubers or ticktockers to do lifestyle viewpoint videos on rural/urban people. Idk, I'm not smart enough to figure out an alternative.
Sometimes there isn't a cheap substitute. And, well, I sure think this is a better value-add than the various ideological projects already in schools (it's not negative, for one thing), and in the limit it costs less than a civil war would, so "expensive" is relative.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
It feels leftist to me that “if we just had more schools/spent more money” we would not have “maga/disinformation problem” instead of most of things being fundamental disagreements.
Sure, but who are you quoting here and what's the relation to this? I went through the AEP site and all the media articles linked from there that I could find (although I didn't get through all of the podcast; no transcript and my internet's spotty at the moment), and didn't find what you're quoting, so I'm a bit confused as to why you're posting it as a reply to @cjet79.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
· Edited 19d ago
Okay, I looked again. "Black" (which I will take to mean sub-Saharan African here, this being largely US data and all) men rated "black" women about the same as other women (varied between -4% and +1% over the years, whereas e.g. white men rating "black" women ranged from -25% to -17%).
(I use the scare quotes and distinguish "African" because there are South Asians and Aboriginal Australians with similar skin tone to sub-Saharan Africans - and the latter are even called "black" - but the face shape is very different and that almost certainly affects these kinds of figures.)
magic9mushroom
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20d ago
It's not so much that they have large troubles attracting anyone as that they have large troubles attracting non-Africans. The old OKCupid data showed a huge effect of non-African men finding African women less attractive, but it didn't apply to African men.
magic9mushroom
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22d ago
Lastly, Australian aboriginals aren’t black and are highly genetically and phenotypically distinct from both African and European populations; Africans and Europeans are much more genetically close than either population is to indigenous Australians and Papuans.
My understanding is that it's close. Yes, there's Denisovan admixture in Aboriginals (previously I thought that that was also in East Asians and thus ruled out as relevant, but I checked in response to this and there's far less of it in Asians), but (sub-Saharan) Africans don't have Neanderthal admixture and have much-longer isolation as far as the H.s.s. part goes.
magic9mushroom
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24d ago
Why are you trapped?
I think it's because he's mentally ill per se and/or because he's dependent on a pension due to mental illness+physical disability.
magic9mushroom
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24d ago
· Edited 24d ago
Discussion prompts- is this a falsification of the narrative, so popular on the motte, that it doesn't matter how conservative a government is, it can't stop the cathedral from doing whatever it damn well pleases?
The narrative on theMotte (and DSL) is mostly one of covert defiance, not overt defiance. That is to say, people "grudgingly agree" and then either don't actually do what they said they would do, or contrive to achieve the same results a different way.
This is a case of a lack of overt defiance - they have said they will comply. Okay. Mostly in accord with that narrative. There remain the questions of whether they will actually comply, and also whether if they do comply, they will come up with some excuse to produce the same outcomes.
If a student spends a day in the local activism space holding a sign saying, for instance, "I think black people are genetically predisposed to crime; ask me why"* and is still a student 6 months later, that would definitely be a falsification - that's real change in outcomes, proof by pudding.
*I am not personally claiming this sentence to be true, merely using it as an example of a sentence which gets one in trouble on purely DIE grounds - it's not threatening or harassing anyone, but is blasphemy against SJ.
magic9mushroom
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25d ago
(this doubles as a reply to @Lewis2)
I quoted what I thought was wrong; the idea that the right will not have the power to do censorship any time soon.
Indeed, one would not need to worry about "wokeness at Harvard", because my whole point is that Harvard would be a smoking ruin. I would be concerned about White Terror, both immediately (in cases of supply-chain interruption and government disruption causing hungry chaos, I don't imagine that being the HR lady would do wonders for one's survival chances) and in the months and years to follow.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
Note the word "force". "If you put a gun to my head and demand I ally with X or anti-X, I pick anti-X" =/= "I am, IRL, allied to anti-X".
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
Apparently they found an earlier use in English (also from an American Cold War analyst)... but that use attributes it to Lenin. Hence my "inconclusive".
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
If I had a problem with your post, I'd have replied to it. It was Nybbler's "You still seem willing to prefer as allies" that pinged my "objectionable inference" radar.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
If I could buy puts for countries, I think puts on Britain would have the most alpha.
You'd better make sure your put-writer has enough money (and will survive) to actually pay out, or you're not the one making alpha.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
· Edited 26d ago
I think jeroboam's claim is that high-profile cases of leftists being jailed for hate speech would cause SJers to realise what a bad idea the laws are and undo them - the lesson of "I never thought the leopards would eat MY face".
I think that this claim is false because my read is that most SJers would react not with "oh shit this sucks, guess this gun's a bit dangerous to have available" but with "how dare they defile our gun and use it on us, we must destroy them so utterly that they can never use it again"*. But still, it seems to be coming from an assumption of Free Speech Good.
*To ironman this argument: a lot of the more-wingnut SJers believe that they have already essentially bet their lives on winning the culture war; that failure already means they literally get executed. This means that there is actual zero capability to deter them from escalation; if they win, then you can't punish them, and if they lose, (they think) they'll be killed either way, so the only thing that matters is P(win). And to be fair to them, in the main situation where I see them losing (voter base existence failure due to nuclear war) I would fully expect my prime political activity to be yelling "please no White Terror" for the next few years. But that's something of a special case due to the suddenness and the lopsidedness of power in the aftermath.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
I don't think there's much point in speculating what a rightist censorship regime would look like right now, because the right doesn't have the power to enforce those policies on a national scale and I don't realistically see that changing any time soon.
I do. It's called nuclear war. I don't, y'know, want nuclear war, but it's pretty obvious that the small-town conservatives comprise a much-larger percentage of the population immediately following one because nobody nukes farmhouses or small towns.
Assuming that nothing flips the table is potentially assuming your way out of reality.
@dale_cloudman thinks that 2LoT means "heat flow from cold to hot is zero" rather than the correct "heat flow from cold to hot is less than heat flow from hot to cold such that net local flow is from hot to cold". It's a reasonably-easy misunderstanding to make (at least, for someone trying to make sense of a topic without the proper grounding), since when you're dealing with conduction or convection there's no separation between forward flow and back flow, and non-scientists don't deal with radiative heat transfer often.
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