magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
No bio...
User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
4mo ago
Which of the following do you think should be covered under gun rights? Single-shot normal rifles, shotguns, assault rifles, SMGs, single-shot pistols, anti-materiel rifles, machine guns, technicals/IFVs, MANPADs, recoilless rifles, rocket launchers, tanks, Davy Crocketts?
(This is not mockery. The argument that's literally in the 2A - militia makes you harder to conquer - applies to all of the above except maybe Davy Crocketts.)
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1mo ago
I don't think there's much point in speculating what a rightist censorship regime would look like right now, because the right doesn't have the power to enforce those policies on a national scale and I don't realistically see that changing any time soon.
I do. It's called nuclear war. I don't, y'know, want nuclear war, but it's pretty obvious that the small-town conservatives comprise a much-larger percentage of the population immediately following one because nobody nukes farmhouses or small towns.
Assuming that nothing flips the table is potentially assuming your way out of reality.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
4mo ago
My parenthetical note was intended to make it clear that I'm not trying to do that foot-in-the-door tactic, but simply trying to get someone else's opinion on the matter. But whatever, you answered which is what I wanted. Is your line at vehicles driven by the actual text of 2A ("bear" arms), or by some argument I don't currently comprehend?
As for your question retort: not orders, and I split hairs on instructions/advocacy/smears. Specifically:
- If someone grows cannabis illegally, we can deal with that after the fact; if someone builds a nuke illegally, it's a bit harder to deal with that after the fact, so I'm more concerned about the details of how to build an implosion nuke than I am about the details of how to grow cannabis (or even the details of how to make dynamite off-label, though I'm not about to spread the latter myself).
- I generally draw the line at indirect/vague vs. direct/specific incitement.
- Ignorant misinformation shouldn't be punishable, but I've no issue with banning disinformation with the associated mens rea of deliberate deception. Much less of a chilling effect from the latter.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Without context on why NexusMods did this, it's not obvious to me whether the motive for dumping it was what you said vs. "transwomen shouldn't sound like women because they're men" - in particular, while the transfeminist lobby is powerful, Rowling has a lot of money and a colourable case against unauthorised mods of her IP.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
5mo ago
Which is a form of sleeping on AI; they see it only as a tool, not as a potential adversary in its own right. Like I said, though, a rogue-AI incident would definitely fix that; a lot of my !doom probability routes through "we get a rogue AI that isn't smart enough to kill us all, then these kinds of people force the Narrative into Jihad".
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
· Edited 1yr ago
I certainly agree that letting governments continue neural-net research is a bad idea, but ultimately if you pursue unaligned neural-nets you're an enemy of mankind and, if you continue such illegally after it's banned, you'll have to be hunted down and stopped. I'm hoping you change your mind before then.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
· Edited 1yr ago
Hmm.
Okay, call me a cynic, but this was a null-update for me. SJ is pro-student/youth, is exceedingly passionate/remorseless, likes hounding people from their jobs, and claims everything is due to an "ism" - nothing here is surprising to me, hence no "light". It seemed like this was a case of "Can you believe what Those People did this week?", to quote the thing up the top of the thread.
That said, I suppose the fact that something's a null-update for me doesn't mean it's a null-update for others, and I was definitely being kind of mean by raising it. So, eh.
(ETA: I did find the parent statement Walterodim provided to be a nonzero update.)
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1mo ago
Note the word "force". "If you put a gun to my head and demand I ally with X or anti-X, I pick anti-X" =/= "I am, IRL, allied to anti-X".
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1mo ago
Except I don't think any such war is coming.
All the stars are basically aligned for the PRC to make a Taiwan play in the near future, and that probably means nuclear exchange.
So what's your "plan b" if it fails to materialize?
Me personally? Don't have one, would rather lose than go even as far as the plan I laid out. But that plan is more workable than you give it credit for.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
2mo ago
I mean, prostitution is one of the more pronounced forms of gold-digging, so it's Bayesian evidence of more subtle forms of gold-digging (which you might be fine with, but which you definitely don't want to get into by accident), but not necessarily strong such evidence depending on time, on why she quit, on how honest she is about it. In this circumstance she seems to have a more recent record of not-gold-digging so that's much less of a concern.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
2mo ago
I mean, if it were orbiting the moon, it couldn't constantly stay on "the other side", because orbits are around a body's centre. And while the L2 point is a thing, L2 orbits are unstable (the Earth-Moon especially so, IIRC) so after a while it'd become visible.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
4mo ago
As we saw with COVID, that's an exception that can swallow most of the rule.
The various censorship on that was aimed at "misinformation"; AFAIK they rarely alleged deliberate lies. There's definitely a huge issue with trying to police misinformation, but if you can prove that someone's deliberately lying I see little issue.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
5mo ago
X, no. X is X. You get an AI that wins, the Amish are just more raw material.
The Amish would do better than city-slickers in a lot of GCRs, though, most obviously nuclear war and pandemics. Non-Amish country bumpkins would do fine in a pandemic, but less so in a nuclear war due to the EMP problem. And it's not implausible that a "failed Skynet" could start a nuclear war and/or spread a "normal" GoFed pandemic before getting destroyed.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
5mo ago
"People will die at 35 degrees wet-bulb" is very much a real problem. The questions are the degree to which this will actually start happening (probably not a lot; we're looking at something like 3 degrees warming of GMST and the tropics/subtropics will get less than that) and the degree to which people will actually stay there to get killed.
The tropics don't normally get to 35 wet-bulb, which is not a coincidence - if they did, humans would have evolved with a higher body temperature to allow survival there. The highest Singapore's ever gotten, for instance, is something like 33.6, and it's usually much lower.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
8mo ago
Mmm, "would rampage if he/she had an opportunity and no better options existed" would be much closer to correct. Checking back through some of the various times I've earnestly called people scum, most of them fall into "plan A is removing these people from power, plan B for things that don't need power is throwing them in jail, but if I only have the options of killing them or letting them keep ruining everything then killing them is the less-bad option".
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
9mo ago
Humans can only build machines that fly.
There are human-constructed flying objects in all four quadrants of the machine/not-machine//self-powered/human-powered schema.
(Normal aeroplane/helicopter/etc.; pedal-powered aircraft; helium balloon; hang-glider.)
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
9mo ago
(most of the infrared radiation being captured by GHGs comes from radioactive decay of elements within the Earth's crust)
Earth's internal power = 44 TW. Sunlight striking the Earth = 170 PW = 170,000 TW.
(from Atomic Rockets' Boom Table)
Even accounting for albedo reflecting like 30% of that number straight back into space, Earth's internal heating is a tiny contributor to its energy balance. It's not like the giant planets, where internal heat is much more significant to overall energy balance (because radioactive heat scales with mass i.e. radius^3 and leftover heat from their formation scales with radius^5 while solar heat scales with radius^2, and also because they're further from the Sun); Neptune actually does radiate over twice as much energy as it receives from the Sun, though I don't think this is true of the others.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
I can respect that. But it goes for me too.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Ideally, certainly, but to make it reliable you need control of the legal system (as most people can be deterred by punching being illegal, and because if being punched entitles you to full compensation it's no deterrent to doing punchable things), which is not reliable against white-collar arseholes (citation: every Western law code). You can't compensate a murder victim, though, so murder's still a deterrent even if murder's illegal.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Wait, what? The ACX comment section doesn't have any topic bans I'm aware of. I know Motte was amputated from the SSC subreddit due to Scott caving under pressure, though.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
It's interesting you bring up Singer, because in The Most Good You Can Do he specifically advocates stock-market speculation for the purpose of giving the proceeds to charity - a non-universalisable strategy because speculation is zero-sum, and one which does only-semi-consensually deprive others of value.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Eh. I found the article's evidence far from convincing (saying "this person is biased" doesn't prove much about society), and he didn't take on the core of the issue i.e. safetyism.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1yr ago
Individual knowledge isn't super-relevant if you've got a fully-automated economy, and preferences likewise don't affect inputs, only desired outputs (and it's trivial, if somewhat tedious, to put a bunch of preferences into an objective function).
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1d ago
I found "Respectability Cascades" in my initial searching (as I said, I searched SSC quite thoroughly), but that's not it. And indeed, it's not "Seventy Percent".
Okay, fair play, you at least didn't get anything horribly wrong in this one. It wasn't good, but you didn't get the basic premise of your article fatally wrong.
More options
Context Copy link