magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
I don't think there's much point in speculating what a rightist censorship regime would look like right now, because the right doesn't have the power to enforce those policies on a national scale and I don't realistically see that changing any time soon.
I do. It's called nuclear war. I don't, y'know, want nuclear war, but it's pretty obvious that the small-town conservatives comprise a much-larger percentage of the population immediately following one because nobody nukes farmhouses or small towns.
Assuming that nothing flips the table is potentially assuming your way out of reality.
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
My parenthetical note was intended to make it clear that I'm not trying to do that foot-in-the-door tactic, but simply trying to get someone else's opinion on the matter. But whatever, you answered which is what I wanted. Is your line at vehicles driven by the actual text of 2A ("bear" arms), or by some argument I don't currently comprehend?
As for your question retort: not orders, and I split hairs on instructions/advocacy/smears. Specifically:
- If someone grows cannabis illegally, we can deal with that after the fact; if someone builds a nuke illegally, it's a bit harder to deal with that after the fact, so I'm more concerned about the details of how to build an implosion nuke than I am about the details of how to grow cannabis (or even the details of how to make dynamite off-label, though I'm not about to spread the latter myself).
- I generally draw the line at indirect/vague vs. direct/specific incitement.
- Ignorant misinformation shouldn't be punishable, but I've no issue with banning disinformation with the associated mens rea of deliberate deception. Much less of a chilling effect from the latter.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
Which is a form of sleeping on AI; they see it only as a tool, not as a potential adversary in its own right. Like I said, though, a rogue-AI incident would definitely fix that; a lot of my !doom probability routes through "we get a rogue AI that isn't smart enough to kill us all, then these kinds of people force the Narrative into Jihad".
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Note the word "force". "If you put a gun to my head and demand I ally with X or anti-X, I pick anti-X" =/= "I am, IRL, allied to anti-X".
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Except I don't think any such war is coming.
All the stars are basically aligned for the PRC to make a Taiwan play in the near future, and that probably means nuclear exchange.
So what's your "plan b" if it fails to materialize?
Me personally? Don't have one, would rather lose than go even as far as the plan I laid out. But that plan is more workable than you give it credit for.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
I mean, prostitution is one of the more pronounced forms of gold-digging, so it's Bayesian evidence of more subtle forms of gold-digging (which you might be fine with, but which you definitely don't want to get into by accident), but not necessarily strong such evidence depending on time, on why she quit, on how honest she is about it. In this circumstance she seems to have a more recent record of not-gold-digging so that's much less of a concern.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
I mean, if it were orbiting the moon, it couldn't constantly stay on "the other side", because orbits are around a body's centre. And while the L2 point is a thing, L2 orbits are unstable (the Earth-Moon especially so, IIRC) so after a while it'd become visible.
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
As we saw with COVID, that's an exception that can swallow most of the rule.
The various censorship on that was aimed at "misinformation"; AFAIK they rarely alleged deliberate lies. There's definitely a huge issue with trying to police misinformation, but if you can prove that someone's deliberately lying I see little issue.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
X, no. X is X. You get an AI that wins, the Amish are just more raw material.
The Amish would do better than city-slickers in a lot of GCRs, though, most obviously nuclear war and pandemics. Non-Amish country bumpkins would do fine in a pandemic, but less so in a nuclear war due to the EMP problem. And it's not implausible that a "failed Skynet" could start a nuclear war and/or spread a "normal" GoFed pandemic before getting destroyed.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
"People will die at 35 degrees wet-bulb" is very much a real problem. The questions are the degree to which this will actually start happening (probably not a lot; we're looking at something like 3 degrees warming of GMST and the tropics/subtropics will get less than that) and the degree to which people will actually stay there to get killed.
The tropics don't normally get to 35 wet-bulb, which is not a coincidence - if they did, humans would have evolved with a higher body temperature to allow survival there. The highest Singapore's ever gotten, for instance, is something like 33.6, and it's usually much lower.
magic9mushroom
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8mo ago
Mmm, "would rampage if he/she had an opportunity and no better options existed" would be much closer to correct. Checking back through some of the various times I've earnestly called people scum, most of them fall into "plan A is removing these people from power, plan B for things that don't need power is throwing them in jail, but if I only have the options of killing them or letting them keep ruining everything then killing them is the less-bad option".
magic9mushroom
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9mo ago
Humans can only build machines that fly.
There are human-constructed flying objects in all four quadrants of the machine/not-machine//self-powered/human-powered schema.
(Normal aeroplane/helicopter/etc.; pedal-powered aircraft; helium balloon; hang-glider.)
magic9mushroom
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9mo ago
(most of the infrared radiation being captured by GHGs comes from radioactive decay of elements within the Earth's crust)
Earth's internal power = 44 TW. Sunlight striking the Earth = 170 PW = 170,000 TW.
(from Atomic Rockets' Boom Table)
Even accounting for albedo reflecting like 30% of that number straight back into space, Earth's internal heating is a tiny contributor to its energy balance. It's not like the giant planets, where internal heat is much more significant to overall energy balance (because radioactive heat scales with mass i.e. radius^3 and leftover heat from their formation scales with radius^5 while solar heat scales with radius^2, and also because they're further from the Sun); Neptune actually does radiate over twice as much energy as it receives from the Sun, though I don't think this is true of the others.
magic9mushroom
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19hr ago
I found "Respectability Cascades" in my initial searching (as I said, I searched SSC quite thoroughly), but that's not it. And indeed, it's not "Seventy Percent".
magic9mushroom
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3d ago
Because the marketplace of ideas doesn't select for truth, but for virulence.
I believe you mean infectivity, not virulence. Infectivity is how easily something's spread; virulence is its tendency to kill its host.
magic9mushroom
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5d ago
For the most part, it's where the US is coming from, not necessarily where it's headed.
None of this matters if the Chinese roll the dice too early. There is a real problem with hypernationalism that saying "hold on, if you go for Taiwan now we wind up with our cities burning" tends to close doors and as such people avoid saying it even when it's true. I suspect they're actively planning a contingency for if the 2024 US election is enough of a shitshow, despite how terrible an idea this would be.
magic9mushroom
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9d ago
Mild symptoms complicate both diagnosis and treatment - much of what DBT is designed to help is for moderate functioning people (can be great) and low functioning people (where it isn't likely to).
Your diagnosis could be wrong, but I'd guess what's happening is that you are well enough, and the underlying biological reality of a borderline brain gets in the way sometimes.
To give the most obvious example, there was an emphasis on meditation, but all that accomplished for me was sending me catatonic.
However also possible you are what you are and don't meet criteria for anything.
Oh, I absolutely meet criteria for HFA/Asperger's and (currently) for depression. And I absolutely do have tendencies in the direction of borderline; I hit two or so of the nine with no question and there are quite a few with at least some question marks. The most obvious thing I categorically don't do is that I've never been a "splitter" (quite the opposite, to be honest), which means I avoid the most severe and characteristic borderline failure mode of "has both the tendency to incorrectly conclude that people are cardboard villains and the temperament for vigilante justice, causing repeated and unwarranted murder attempts and other hostile actions".
magic9mushroom
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9d ago
That isn't my impression at all, I feel like she was very serious about it.
Yeah, I figured that was a real possibility; it was just that from what you initially said I wasn't clear on that and as such I couldn't give a definite "aieee".
If you're doing okay, that's great, I'm genuinely happy for you.
I'm actually still dealing with the social fallout of the blackmail Drama two years back (I miraculously avoided legal trouble, but my uni is mad at me), so I wouldn't say I'm doing okay. But I'm safe enough to be around for people who don't think holding me over the volcano's edge sounds like a great idea (even during Drama I'm pretty good about avoiding harm to bystanders).
magic9mushroom
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14d ago
Why wouldn't the ecumene include Ethiopia and India?
My understanding is that they weren't quite as well-mixed with Europe/Mediterranean. Certainly, on a superficial level, it's much easier to distinguish Indians and Ethiopians from Italians than it is Arabs. There's definitely a line-drawing problem in Persia, as I said, because indeed there was a lot more geneflow between the Ecumene and India than there was between e.g. India and China.
Regression to the mean is an argument for having higher or lower trait thresholds for certain races, but not for excluding those races altogether.
Agreed.
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
Maybe it does, but if so I don't know it.
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
Go into the .xlsx file of public results, search by the most identifiable answers you gave (I used diagnoses) to work out which row is you, read off that row.
I don't know another way, or how to get the private answers (other than straight-up asking Scott to email you the row that includes your email address).
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
I think it'd be easier to answer if you elaborated.
magic9mushroom
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18d ago
You heat it up by a degree, you cool it down by a degree. I don't see the problem here.
As I've said, I agree with this logic when restricted to longwave. Removing greenhouse gas from the atmosphere with air-capture is indeed fine.
The problem is that reducing shortwave - i.e. blocking sunlight - doesn't just cool the planet. Sunlight is also needed for photosynthesis, which has massive indirect effects through the carbon cycle and, more directly, is how we grow food.
We can bound the harms of global warming pretty well. The harms of global dimming are much harder to bound, particularly at the unprecedented levels needed to do multiple degrees of cooling via dimming. You fuck with sunlight at your peril.
magic9mushroom
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27d ago
Fair point.
Which of the following do you think should be covered under gun rights? Single-shot normal rifles, shotguns, assault rifles, SMGs, single-shot pistols, anti-materiel rifles, machine guns, technicals/IFVs, MANPADs, recoilless rifles, rocket launchers, tanks, Davy Crocketts?
(This is not mockery. The argument that's literally in the 2A - militia makes you harder to conquer - applies to all of the above except maybe Davy Crocketts.)
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