magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
I hear it in Richard Poe's voice (sorry, can't find a video).
magic9mushroom
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1yr ago
I've seen at least one forum get eaten by a Discord channel, and have suspicions it may have happened to a couple more. As someone who has a "no accounts on large platforms" rule (and would likely get banned from Discord for heresy anyway), it's really fucking annoying.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
After all, he could still end up in jail.
I don't think that one would be enough anymore - not on its own.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
Things that really happened include "culture war temperature just spiked". That's an update regarding P(Boogaloo) and the related P(WWIII).
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
Yeah, I saw you say that before and you have a point.
I said that post-shooting it likely wouldn't be enough.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
Oh, I'm not suggesting a state actor had Trump shot. The issue's that, as I said, P(Boogaloo) and more generally P(chaos in USA) is related to P(WWIII), because the USA is load-bearing in the world order.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
Taunting people for not doing terrorism doesn't seem like the best of ideas unless you want there to be more terrorism. Do you?
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
To add on to this, @mdurak, 5.56 is basically .223 described in international-standard (rather than American) terms, in order to aid military standardisation among NATO. .223 means "0.223 inches across the rifle barrel, in the rifling grooves" - imperial measurements and the American practice of measuring calibre across the grooves. 5.56 means "5.56 mm across the rifle barrel, not in the grooves" - metric measurements and the international practice of measuring calibre across the ungrooved parts of the barrel (the "lands"). (5.56 mm is, as you might expect, very slightly less than 0.223 inches.)
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
· Edited 11mo ago
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
I'm not really sure if it even means they aren't voting for him!
Reminds me of the Lizardman's Constant post.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
A caution: "mentally ill" is a very broad term, much broader than "retarded". You can be plenty intelligent and planning-capable and also anxious or depressed. Not even all psychotics are as useless as Sandford; Kaczynski was probably mildly psychotic and he lasted almost two decades.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
I mean, I think Epstein probably killed himself, but sure, it would definitely be possible to arrange for Trump to get murdered in prison (putting him in the general population would probably be enough right there). I just didn't count that as "on its own" - Trump being murdered was another item in the list I replied to.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
I see the argument, history not changing, no matter how fine the margin, is still history not changing. Trump got a pic that's getting him 100 million votes (re. my now-Over @ 105), but how's that +15MM votes and ~+3 states won (I'd take the over on 42.5) going to change his presidency vs one where he wins by a lesser margin?
That's only part of the equation, though. The electoral consequences don't matter that much, but the ballot box isn't the only box in play here - Crooks used the cartridge box, and people notice that. It remains to be seen how that's going to play out in the dance of lawfare and lunatics, but it's not ideal.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
I'm curious: what is it about the Oklahoma City bombing that you consider "retardation"? Presumably you're not worried about discrimination given your suggestions; are you making the same objection Pierce did, or something else?
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
It is exactly what you'd expect from the culture war, and the percentage of books written in the last 10 years (much less the last 20) is absurdly high.
No, it's not. It's "books of the 21st century" i.e. written in or since 2000, and 42/100 are 2014 or later. It's been about 24.5 years since Jan 1 2000, so you'd expect 42.8% to be in or since 2014.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
I'm guessing he said that it was done too soon, against a target that wasn't strategically important (unlike the surveillance center targeted in the book), nor aimed at destabilizing the regime?
The amazing part to me was that the protagonist of the book even second-guessed their bombing because in retrospect it focused the attention of the regime too early, when the resistance didn't have anything lined up to exploit the brief opening it gave them.
I don't think he mentioned the importance of the target, but yes, from what I've heard he said that terrorism's only worthwhile if sustainable.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
It sounds like you think “they” can simply control what the jury believes.
The thing is, Trump's so polarising that you'd expect most people to vote on the jury based on their opinion of Trump, rather than the facts of the case. And, well, Manhattan voted 90% Democrat in 2020, and ten peremptory strikes for each side easily suffice for an all-Democrat jury (even strikes for each side advantage whoever has a majority, because striking a minority juror will usually succeed at replacing the juror with one of the majority while striking a majority juror will usually just replace the juror with another one of the majority - this is the same way the South could ensure all-white juries until Batson declared race-based peremptory strikes to be unconstitutional).
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
Crap. Hope they reverse course; it's not actually that unlikely given the politics of Big Tech. I'd appreciate an offramp less horrific than "WWIII destroys half the hardware and fucks everything with soft errors" and less dangerous than "we get live rogue AI".
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
AI waifus are nice and all - I'd just like to make sure they won't brainwash and kill their users.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
Two, it's idiotic to publicly state this since if it turns out you're correct, you get a free trip to a concentration camp.
Eh. There are things worth dying for. I don't happen to agree with this particular statement, never mind think it's worth dying to state, but the worldview where this adds up even on a utilitarian level, never mind a deontological or virtue level, is not hard to construct.
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11mo ago
That's not what I'm suggesting at all -- I'm suggesting that the consensus amongst virtually everyone in North America, with the exception of yourself an perhaps a not-quite-enough-to-fill-an-average-high-school-gym contingent of fellow travellers, is that this question is not only uninteresting and unimportant -- but profoundly silly and/or boring.
A total nullity.
There's not exactly a consensus on that. There are a lot of anti-Zionists on the progressive side of the aisle. The thing is, though, to get to full Nazi you need to be an anti-Zionist and a particular flavour of HBDer; if you're not an HBDer, or think that Ashkenazi Jews are mostly just smarter white people, then all you really want is to destroy Zionism the cultural phenomenon and assimilate Jews a bit better - no gas chambers here.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
High-powered neural nets are probably sufficiently hard to align that with correct understanding, the game in question is Stag Hunt, not Prisoner's Dilemma (i.e. if nobody else builds Skynet, you should also not build Skynet even selfishly, as the risk that Skynet will turn on you outweighs the military advantage if it doesn't; it's only if somebody else is already building Skynet that you're incentivised to join in). It's hard to co-ordinate in Stag Hunt with 3+ people, but it's still not Prisoner's Dilemma levels of fucked.
The problem is that, well, if you don't realise that you're playing Stag Hunt, and think you're playing Prisoner's Dilemma instead, then of course you're going to play as if you're playing Prisoner's Dilemma.
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
The reasons aren't the same, but the payoffs are (with rabbit being "build Skynet" and stag being "don't"). Party A has a preference order of "nobody builds" > "A builds and nobody else does" > "everyone builds" > "others build but A doesn't". This is the Stag Hunt matrix, with two Nash equilibria ("all stag" and "all rabbit").
magic9mushroom
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11mo ago
Like I said, HBD doesn't necessarily lead there, but there's a particular flavour of HBD that does. HBD isn't solely about intelligence, after all, much as that tends to hog the limelight.
The Nazi position is that Jews are genetically predisposed to exploitativity and conspiracy, which is an obvious deal-breaker for anyone who doesn't think he can get in on the conspiracy. Genius is not prosocial if it's evil genius.
(NB: I'm explaining a position I disagree with, here.)
Can we be sure he brought a vehicle into DC rather than walking the last 10 km or so (possible if you're determined enough, and pipe bombers are usually pretty determined)? Can we even be sure he doesn't just live in DC?
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