magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Lastly, Australian aboriginals aren’t black and are highly genetically and phenotypically distinct from both African and European populations; Africans and Europeans are much more genetically close than either population is to indigenous Australians and Papuans.
My understanding is that it's close. Yes, there's Denisovan admixture in Aboriginals (previously I thought that that was also in East Asians and thus ruled out as relevant, but I checked in response to this and there's far less of it in Asians), but (sub-Saharan) Africans don't have Neanderthal admixture and have much-longer isolation as far as the H.s.s. part goes.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
(this doubles as a reply to @Lewis2)
I quoted what I thought was wrong; the idea that the right will not have the power to do censorship any time soon.
Indeed, one would not need to worry about "wokeness at Harvard", because my whole point is that Harvard would be a smoking ruin. I would be concerned about White Terror, both immediately (in cases of supply-chain interruption and government disruption causing hungry chaos, I don't imagine that being the HR lady would do wonders for one's survival chances) and in the months and years to follow.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Would you be opposed to someone keeping a dog locked in their basement for the purpose of fucking it? Would you consider that person a bad person? Would you be for or against your society trying to construct laws to prevent people from chaining dogs in their basement and fucking them?
No/no/against.
Well, assuming that he soundproofed the basement; I don't want to have to listen to it. And assuming it's not, y'know, someone else's stolen dog. Obvious failure states are obvious. But otherwise, I don't care. NMKBIOK.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Now I'm curious: what did you think "fora" meant?
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Are you asking for a PM conversation with me, or KNU?
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
And there is no (peaceful, legal) mechanism to replace that personnel.
There exist legal means to replace a lot of them that do not inherently involve bloodshed. It's just that making such an attempt probably means they revolt.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
I knew where it came from, but I didn't know he died.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
My point is that to think nuclear war is good because it mostly kills the Blue Tribe is Pol Pot logic; thus, to someone not highly-mindkilled, this is, if unrealistic at all, "pessimism bias".
The reason I think nuclear war is fairly likely has little to do with the CW except insofar as the CW is weakening the USA at a time when its hegemony is being tested (in particular Taiwan looks like a potential spark for WWIII).
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Thus, when it goes, even if our species manages to survive the resulting conflicts at all, I expect the collapse to do so much damage to civilizational infrastructure both tangible and intangible, to knock the planet so far back that, due to the Industrial Revolution being a once-per-planet event (due to depletion of the non-renewable "low-hanging fruit" resources accessible at positive EROI with 1500s technology), we will simply never recover. That, as someone on a podcast recently put it, the machines in The Matrix were right that the late 90's were the absolute peak of human civilization — and that we have no hope whatsoever of attaining such heights ever again.
Toby Ord takes an axe to this argument in The Precipice; I'll summarise with some of my own points as well.
- Metals and similar are only non-renewable while they're in use. If there's a collapse, the ruins are themselves now mines - indeed, better mines than we've had for a long time.
- In a lot of cases with fossil fuel, the work to render it accessible is already done and won't be undone. An open-cut mine, for instance, is not going away; the resource is at the surface now. Plenty of open-cut coal mines in Australia. Moreover, you don't really need these for anything except making plastic, due to renewables and to some extent even uranium (see below).
- Phosphate... okay, that's a thing, but there are still decent amounts of it and it is renewable on a much-shorter timescale than fossil fuels.
- Remember that the Industrial Revolution required that the 1.0 version of machines be useful. A rediscovery doesn't need that, because the knowledge of how to build much-more-efficient machines will not be lost (I'm very confident of that; there was literally one technology actually lost in the fall of Rome i.e. Roman concrete). Even if it were, people would at least know it was possible, which is half the issue.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
Given how many people have slid down it, I'd say it's pretty slippery. Even then, I did say "might".
If Butlerian were actively acting against her outside of his advice to Bob, that's a legit reason, but if mere disapproval is enough then you're edging toward "friendship is transitive" which sorts people into bubbles (proof: assume by contradiction that a connected subgraph contains a prude and a prostitute. Then the prude and prostitute must be friends because friendship is transitive and (because there are finitely many people) there is a finite-length path between them. But they're not. -><-). Like I said, shorter than it looks.
If you think you can avoid sliding down, fine, whatever, it's your life. Just pointing out the pitfall.
magic9mushroom
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3mo ago
Your avoidance of presenting evidence, instead of theories about what could have happened or dissatisfaction with how the election was run, remains telling.
If you think he's arguing in bad faith, report rather than responding. Either he's arguing in bad faith, and you calling him out won't tell him anything he doesn't already know, or he's not, and you falsely accusing him will incense him for no reason.
magic9mushroom
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3mo ago
Shame said shrink wasn't a Dr. S. A. Sisskind, he'd have rekt them.
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"Siskind".
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I haven't met Scott in person, so I'm not sure how effective he is in a real-time format, but I should note that this doesn't correlate very well (notice that politicians are typically excellent at quips and real-time debate but uninspired at essay-writing).
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
So given your own premises, accepting this fact, you should have an extremely high prior probability that people who were selected throughout the millennia in Asian culture are not the same as people who were selected in European culture, because culture is nothing except a program of eugenics or dysgenics depending on the frame of reference.
The distinction I'm making is selection power. Culture does have selection effects, but they're noisy and very weak compared to "generate 10,000 embryos via IVF, the one with the highest genetic score for trait X is selected, rest are destroyed". And I'm not even sure that the cultural traits we're concerned with go back that full 40,000 years; Confucianism doesn't exactly predate Confucius.
Selection is a thing, yes, obviously, but honestly at this point I don't think it's currently worth worrying about. High-power eugenics techniques are coming to fruition, nuclear war's pretty likely in the near future, and we could all be killed by AI or whatever in the next couple of centuries. It's like worrying about rain acidification eroding a limestone cave when the cave also has an armed nuclear bomb in it; the current direction of the trendline is of no consequence because there is essentially no chance that it will have enough time to go anywhere before getting scrambled.
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
I don't think that this was a particularly-well-aimed barb; JTarrou is not someone who frequently Body-Snatchers-screams at people claiming them to be racists. I'm not 100% sure whether his comment is mocking "everyone is racist" or at least semi-seriously saying that "everyone is racist and that's fine", but TTBOMK neither of those are positions in common with Ibram Rogers.
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
Are those asterisks yours or his?
magic9mushroom
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4mo ago
"Always" is an overstatement. In the 50s, the counterculture definitely didn't control legacy media, since it didn't exist yet.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
I think that, for all their passion, very few of them will get violent. Sure, some will, but those that do will do so entirely in the form of "lone-wolf" terrorism, blind lashing-out so poorly targeted and sloppily executed as to make Breivik's assault on Utøya look good in comparison. They will accomplish nothing but giving our government even more excuses to crack down on the right and limit political expression further still.
You've got to remember, post-2020-election the Republican machine did not declare "stolen election, government illegitimate". McConnell outright condemned Trump right after squelching his impeachment trial. You're right that a few lone wolves aren't much of an issue, but if the Republican machine as a whole flips into "rebellion" mode that's quite a different story, and having elections be stolen for real is the sort of thing that might push them over (remember, if the fix goes in that means all their hopes of accomplishing anything via the system - the whole reason they are politicians - just caught on fire). In particular, once one state declares secession or the equivalent, all the other red states are faced with the choice of "join the rebels" or "be made to fight the rebels and then be crushed politically in the ensuing witch-hunt". Texas is the obvious spark, but not the only possibility.
Complicating matters is the fact that the PRC is probably looking to have a Taiwan invasion ready and waiting next year, precisely in order to take advantage of possible chaos in the USA.
Most of my hope is on "the SCOTUS nixes attempts to remove Trump from the ballot". Outside of that scenario... well, I'm sure glad I don't live in the 'States.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
That is fair. I think I recall some from the 90s that were biased in a not-Blue-Tribe way, now that I think of it.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
Nixon, Reagan, and Trump couldn't, so I don't know why anyone is thinking anything different will really happen in the future other than a continuation of what's happened since the late 1950's.
When I said I think it's most likely, I'm pricing in nuclear war very heavily. Sudden loss of half the city population means country-based conservative parties will have a lot of power and still be on a culture war footing.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
I disagree with you; delusion isn't actually the only thing that can be inferred. There's also a specific style that I've basically got pegged as "badly psychotic"; the Capitalised Important Concept Rant.
The example I have to hand is the Female Void essay (which I can't actually find without some sort of well-poisoning at the start, so skip down to "Writings from 'Reads'"). I actually agree with a substantial chunk of the content of that essay, but there is very obviously a layer of crazy paint over it all; my understanding is that this is "thought disorder". Not every psychotic writes that way, but I'm not aware of sane people writing that way.
And, for what it's worth, FR doesn't come off to me as having written a CICR, and the content doesn't strike me as obviously delusional.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
It was @CrispyFriedBarnacles who brought up the topic, not Questionmark. But thanks a bunch.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
What I'm going to say may sound a little rude. That's not intentional; seems inherent in what I'm asking.
My read of US and international politics says that the probable result of a giant fight over the 2024 US election looks basically like "PRC blockades or invades Taiwan anticipating the USA being too fucked up to intervene, WWIII, nuclear exchange occurs, SJ is torn out by the roots in the aftermath due to half of the Blue Tribe being dead and the other half discredited".
I am legitimately not sure whether you 1) disagree with that forecast, or 2) think that this outcome is worth it because Red wins the culture war. #2 is, after all, a coherent position, if one I disagree with.
magic9mushroom
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5mo ago
But anti-white pogroms are a hill I will, and have, died on.
In what sense did you die on that hill? I mean, unless you're a ghost we can presumably discount the literal, but it's not like you said "literally died" so I won't insist on that. Banned from an internet forum? Fired from a job? Lost friends? Disowned by family?
Not particularly doubting your claim to have suffered for it in some sense - seems plausible enough - just trying to ascertain what sense that is.
magic9mushroom
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6mo ago
Another way to phrase my objection is that I don't think "disobeying" actually leads to "investigating whether the side you are on is the right side".
No objections to that.
Okay, I looked again. "Black" (which I will take to mean sub-Saharan African here, this being largely US data and all) men rated "black" women about the same as other women (varied between -4% and +1% over the years, whereas e.g. white men rating "black" women ranged from -25% to -17%).
(I use the scare quotes and distinguish "African" because there are South Asians and Aboriginal Australians with similar skin tone to sub-Saharan Africans - and the latter are even called "black" - but the face shape is very different and that almost certainly affects these kinds of figures.)
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