magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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3d ago
I suppose in that case I have to credit @Chrisprattalpharaptr for making this post which I was served on the volunteer page.
magic9mushroom
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9d ago
Yeah (well, assuming he survives; I don't imagine corpses get into many fights), but if these people are all dead, or if the parties aren't recognisable due to e.g. much of the Democratic voter base being turned into charcoal by Dongfengs, or if mass AI brainwashing obviates normal politics, this is just blatantly the wrong question to ask.
magic9mushroom
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9d ago
I think that framing it this way misses some important alternative possibilities. Possibilities like "Trump doesn't survive to 2028" (even leaving aside the assassins, which will continue for the foreseeable future, he's less than four years younger than Biden), and "the gameboard has been flipped; this question is no longer relevant" (most obviously by WWIII or by AI).
magic9mushroom
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11d ago
And for the record, this would be the case regardless of the group in question.
Depends on your definition of "group". There's at least one category of people that's basically just staggeringly negative-sum and appears to exist pretty much solely due to group selection not being strong enough to fully root it out. I'm speaking, of course, of psychopaths. I think "kill all the psychopaths" is a very defensible position; the big problem with doing it is not that we need psychopaths or that they don't deserve it, but that of setting a precedent of gas chambers (because once that taboo's broken people will start arguing for gassing the borderlines and the autistics and the morons, and that's a far-worse idea).
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
I did not say the population would drop 80%. I said food production would drop by 80% (though that's a rough estimate). There's give in a few places (the USA exports food and that would be redirected; grain-fed animals would be replaced by eating the grain; also, while Westerners do need more food than Third-Worlders to not die - because the body stunts from undernutrition, but that's not retroactive - we don't need quite as much food as we get) - just not 5x worth of give.
I think you also have a different opinion of what constitutes "a going concern" than FCfromSSC.
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
"Chopped" is apparently slang for "rough-looking."
I will say, this is a lot better than there being a (new) epidemic of men being chopped up or having their dicks chopped off. I suppose if you wanted to get particularly creative, a particularly disgusting case would be an epidemic of meat intended for eating being discovered as, well, "chopped man"!
magic9mushroom
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17d ago
Everything getting greyer is less to do with gay activists and more to do with society, in general, not loving bright colors everywhere. I blame autism increasing,
This isn't the autistic pattern. My understanding is that we mostly tend toward loving highly-saturated, solid colours (the most notorious example being anime).
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
Eh, when talking about specifically "autistic nerds" (i.e. like 1% of the population), there are certain caveats on that. Autists typically have retarded* co-ordination, and the top end of the "nerds" (i.e. aspie savants) sometimes get accelerated. A 13-year-old boy with garbage co-ordination against a 14-year-old girl isn't such an uneven match.
*I use this word precisely; adult co-ordination is usually normal, but it takes longer to get there.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
You can't write laws good enough to combat this mindset.
I mean, yes and no. The lawfare against Trump and Musk did eventually fail, you know, and mostly because of the USA's protections against that sort of thing - certainly, it wasn't because Biden and Harris decided to call it off.
I agree that there are a vast number of potential attack vectors, but the task's still not an impossible one. Constitutional rights, and literally having fewer laws, are the most obvious general directions for such efforts.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
I think where we're disagreeing is that I think of "powers that can be abused" as a natural category, and you're insisting that different sorts of abusable powers, despite being abusable to the same end, can't be treated as a category.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
(Unless he decided to martyr hymself, but that seems unlikely to me)
It's not unusual for hothead romantics, and lots of assassinations are from that demographic, although his actions don't match up perfectly with that motivation.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Gosh, with this one neat trick, there will be no chance at all of the Chinese government setting it up so that certain trusted agents sure look like they have renounced their citizenship credibly and are now deeply embedded!
Do note that this would still force them to put work into making an agent before sending him over, rather than being able to only put work into flipping an expat after he's successfully got a relevant position.
Which means the answer to this:
"Hello, you have now gotten all your family back home exiled, imprisoned, or executed. Love and kisses, the CCP".
...is basically "anyone deterred by this is someone who can be extorted into working for the CPC and thus is de facto a sleeper agent; this isn't a bug, it's a feature".
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Private industry has incentives not to let their tech be stolen and not to hire people who will steal it.
Some of the harm is internalised. Not all of it is, which means the incentives aren't as strong as (and thus often produce less-safe responses to tradeoffs than) society would like.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
I'm also pretty nonplussed by "body count". There are red flags related to it (HIV and stepkids are obvious; I'd also consider a nonzero count of "times cheated on partner" without an extremely-good explanation to have too high a risk of ending in Extreme Drama) but the count itself is not very relevant.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
I can't help but think this is kind of a silly conversation. The Testimonium Flavianum is a known and obvious forgery, as @Jazzhands' link notes. It's ridiculous to take a forgery as evidence of anything about reality. Yes, it might have been altered from a Josephan original passage, but we don't have the Josephan original passage, and are basically taking wild guesses at what it might have said; this is okay-ish if all you care about is whether Josephus referred to Jesus at all, but anything further is trying to walk on clouds.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
Like I said, they both seem about as far from "what I'd think of". Everyone's familiar with what a lost-and-found is, yes, but everyone's familiar with what murder is, too, and that doesn't mean they're salient when trying to solve these problems. In terms of "I would think of that within X minutes", X is similar for these solutions.
magic9mushroom
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1mo ago
· Edited 1mo ago
There was the thing where a democratic campaign volunteer attempted to murder as many of the republican congressmen as he could, the FBI covered up the clear political motive, and it was common for years afterward to hear Progressives mock the victims and wish the would-be assassin had done a better job.
James Hodgkinson?
There was the time the Antifa guy murdered a trump supporter in cold blood, on video, his antifa buddies publicly celebrated the murder on video, prestige media responded by glazing him, and local progressives shrugged and said it was the trump supporter's fault for engaging in political speech in a blue enclave.
Michael Reinoehl?
Then there's the family members, friends, and acquaintances who've opined to me that it'd probably be for the best if Trump or Elon or Vance were just murdered.
Yeah, I've gotten that too and I don't even live in the 'States.
I'll note that all of these except Butler are progressive murder culture, not reactionary murder culture which is the point most relevant to your argument. Certainly, it's hard to keep that kind of thing fully one-sided indefinitely, though.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
the headsman's blade
It'd be at least a second or two before the brain deoxygenated enough to cause unconsciousness, surely? I was with you up until that point.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
· Edited 2mo ago
SALT/START seem like examples, albeit minor ones due to the difficulty of winning a nuclear war.
Also, I should note that a decent chunk of my P(~Doom) routes through WWIII removing AI as a thing-in-being-with-entrenched-interests.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
· Edited 2mo ago
But the dynamics demand it. When considering the balance of powers involved, the most Yud and co can hope for is to smooth out the edges a little bit, don't go all in on a strategy with 0 chance of success.
From where I sit, hoping for neural net alignment is itself a strategy with ~0 chance of success. Reality is under no obligation to give you a "reasonable" solution.
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
magic9mushroom
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2mo ago
This is a better argument, and if you'd been plain about this rather than engaging in hyperbole I'd not have chimed in.
magic9mushroom
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3mo ago
If you're a Luddite; I see no other way to object to designing iPhones.
With respect to smartphones: yes, I'm a Luddite. Zvi's made the case at length regarding the depression epidemic. Also, since I know you don't like SJ, and it's pretty obvious that smartphones helped it nucleate by bringing normies and, well, women onto the Internet, the only hole I can currently see through which you can maybe wriggle out of damning them for that would be to claim that (smartphones helped the alt-right more than they helped SJ ∩ the rise in culture war temperature from amplifying both sides is outweighed by the differential).
The literal iPhone i.e. Apple smartphone also has a business model heavily based around fashion cycles. Fashion cycles are waste, pure relative-at-expense-of-absolute.
Day trading is volunteering to be a cog in the machine which discovers prices, which is useful (most people who try end up as lubricant instead of cog, which is why you probably shouldn't do it).
I'm generally of the view that this beach can tolerate wooden shacks but that building multi-storey brick buildings on it is asking for trouble.
The most that can be achieved building a society on those is being a rich city-state like Dubai or Singapore, not a great power.
To be clear, "building a society on those" =/= "having those in existence". The USA, USSR and PRC all built their power on manufacturing, which is real positive-sum activity.
magic9mushroom
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3mo ago
There is, indeed, a reason I said "some of those institutions".
Don't blindly assume demographic trends will continue forever. WWIII would upend quite a few of them, and it's looking more likely this decade than it has since '91.
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