magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
26d ago
Do you think Trump would win the mid-terms under these circumstances?
Do remember that a significant chunk of the Democratic base is located in LA and NYC, and thus would not be voting in this scenario. It is not immediately clear that the swing would outweigh that.
(Yes, the incentives on Trump may in fact be perverse!)
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
China has no military allies
North Korea is a formal Chinese ally and not negligible in terms of military.
The Solomon Islands are basically a Chinese ally at this point, although one can question whether the correct term is in fact "puppet state". Of course, their own military's negligible, but the ability to base PLA forces there is a big deal.
magic9mushroom
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26d ago
I remember one of our posters here talked about struggling with gender identity, and feeling like people they interacted with online were, to paraphrase from memory, "part of a cult that just wanted to increase the number of trans people at all costs."
I suspect you were thinking of this - the actual line being "It felt like I was talking to an AI designed to maximize the number of trans people". Written by a Motte member, and quoted here three times that I know of, but not actually written on theMotte.
I mean, I Noticed a long time ago that nuclear war means victory for the Red Tribe in the culture war (at least in the USA, and possibly in other Western nations hit). I happen to think that tearing the Blue Tribe from power isn't actually worth that, but I suspect there are some among the Trumpists sufficiently mindkilled to disagree - at the very least, my noting this factual point has been mistaken for such Posadism on three separate occasions.
(I will cop to being more of a China hawk than I might otherwise be due to the AI issue; not due to the culture war, though.)
I would predict that in this specific scenario the mid-terms would at least still probably happen, although you are correct that it's a footnote (the broader CW point less of one, but still relatively minor).
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