netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
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User ID: 647
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
Yeah, the peak was insanity. Regression to the mean suggests that it would have gone down in the absence of Bukele. And was, in fact, going down every year.
I wish we had monthly stats for any year before 2019, because the red numbers in that year still average out below the previous year’s rate.
To be clear, I think Bukele deserves credit for continuing to bring the rate down. But he didn’t reverse any trend, and he didn’t have one weird trick. The TCP was announced late June and involved everything from equipment to public works.
I think Swedish immigration policy is even less focused. It’s all technocratic compromise politics, where a coalition government considers the recommendations of a committee on I’m already falling asleep. There’s no dynamic individual who said “yeah we’re gonna import Syrians.” Look at that spike. Policy crafted 20+ years ago for Yugoslavia getting stretched to a new extreme.
That’s what makes the Orebro situation different. Dude has none of the institutional backing and none of the existing law. His proposal is not serious.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
Suggesting that your outgroup believes stupid or evil things is a central example of waging the culture war. Don’t do this.
One day ban to cool off.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
Oh, that’s good. I know better than to make eye contact with Texas drivers. Never know who’s packing.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
What?
I think you might be the first person to envision that today. Personally, I’d rule that airlifting millions (?!) in a ploy to seize voting rights involves removing U.S. jurisdiction over whatever area. Defeating the world’s premier air power would certainly do that.
But it’s not exactly salient. How many of the existing illegals used a plane at all? Surely the founders were aware of the possibility of land crossings.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
There was a lot of talk about the establishment blaming Bernie-bros for doing exactly that in 2016. Not sure how credible.
I can’t decide whether I buy into the national vs. local strategy explanation. It could work; lower levels are a lot more visible than they were in 1992. If it were true, though, what’s the mechanism for tightening the leash? Are there a bunch of midlevel Dems who mellowed out to get a Senate seat?
@Dean convinced me, at one point, that Obama’s campaign basically hollowed out the Democrat back bench. I think that (and the ensuing Trump whiplash) might be enough to explain the issues.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
I think you’re more or less correct.
Historically, a cooperative opposition could get support for pet issues, pork spending, that kind of stuff. Today Congress has delegated or abdicated a lot of those levers. At the same time, stumping against the other guy is more important (electorally…) than ever. So you’ve got a bunch of partisans with no incentive to run towards the center.
I want to say this has been true since the 2008 crash, but that might just be my youth showing.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
Fellas, is it gay to touch another car with your car door?
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
6d ago
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
7d ago
Dang. Doing your part to keep the English language alive and kicking.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
7d ago
Okay, there’s no way that’s a real word.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
7d ago
I’m not sure it did. See section 3. If those stats are right, the murder rate peaked four years before Bukele got the presidency, and three more years before he started imprisoning everyone.
Also, I don’t get the impression his campaign was actually focused on one weird trick. Running a general law & order message isn’t that weird.
By the same token, there’s no one weird trick to Sweden’s policy. It’s not like someone ran on a single issue of opening the gates. Liberal policy plus world events equaled a ton of migrants. Integrate over a decade or two to get the current totals. Or is there some tipping point I missed?
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
7d ago
That’s a terrible criterion.
It works if there are spots you want occupied but they’re hard to find or reach. When travel involved a wagon train that described a lot of land. Today, it’s roughly none. The arable land is owned and farmed. The adequate pasture is owned and ranched. The mineral deposits are owned and mined.
Neoliberals would hate this criterion because it doesn’t get them cheap labor. Social conservatives because you’re actively encouraging foreign enclaves. Ethnonationalists because you’re benefiting a foreigner and not a native. Bleeding-heart liberals because you’ll generate lots of corpses. Libertarians…they might be up for it, actually, but I’m not sure they actually exist in the wild.
Airdropping migrants into the outback, Fortnite style, buys you nothing.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
7d ago
orientals
What are you talking about? I can’t think of any interpretation of this word that remotely describes “liberals.” Is it just for negative associations?
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
7d ago
This is stupid.
It’s pretty dumb on the object level; I highly doubt that Orebro has a workable plan. Actually, I suspect they don’t even have a realistic model of their problem, but then, I don’t know the Swedish stats either.
It’s pointless on the political level, where repeating one party plank over and over again does not generally bring said plank about. The road to hell is paved with agitators certain their one weird trick would bring about the revolution clean energy a balanced budget ethnonationalism. Surely this time the people are crying out for someone to say the quiet part out loud!
And it’s embarrassing on a meta level, where boards like this will take any opportunity to root for a Great White Hope.
My own state of Texas has a recurring cast of separatists. In the 90s, it kind of centered around Civil War revanchism. More recently, they tried it in protest of the 2020 election. Running a fringe political movement is a way to feel important and connected. Maybe raise some funds while you’re at it. I’d be willing to bet Orebro is in this category: a vanity project picking some edgy positions to get attention. Whether or not it represents genuine believers, it is not a serious attempt to enact any policy.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
7d ago
With no particular knowledge, I’d guess the same thing that’s been happening for the last couple centuries. It had a whole subplot in the Spanish Civil War. It was a recurring theme in the Napoleonic wars, too. I can only assume it comes and goes with the capability of the Spanish state…
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
9d ago
I don't know what this means, but it's provocative.
Given your long history of provocative one-liners, one day ban.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
11d ago
We ask that top-level submissions have more substance than this. No, copying the text of the article doesn’t count.
Do you have an opinion on the piece? A reason you think we’d find it interesting? Maybe a broader trend it’s supposed to represent?
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
11d ago
You’ve lost me.
Liberalism says to go ahead and pursue your treasure, but don’t stomp on certain rights. If you want blood you’re supposed to invoke the greater social contract. It’s materialist without devolving into the Hobbesian state of nature.
Liberalism also allows replacing “treasure” with “virtues.” That’s your own business. Other people are not supposed to stomp on you for it. Again, competition without war.
I don’t see how this scheme constitutes a war on virtues. Not masculinity, not Christianity.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
12d ago
Okay, that’s a pretty silly excuse.
Paranoid conspiracy theories have got to be the worst form of recruitment for a research program.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
12d ago
Parts of the U.S. Government like the alien narrative as a cheap way to signal that you’re totally a radical free-thinker. You know, one who cares about what the people want. The current administration has selected really hard for a certain willingness to burn credibility for attention.
Professional scientists, who are not usually elected based on economic and social vibes, have different incentives.
If other governments are joining in on the fun, I haven’t really seen it.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
14d ago
Okay, we’ve been looking at the same quote. I agree that there was no ambiguity about him doing an extrapolation. I think the article was clear that Pearson took the most extreme assumption whenever possible. Not including any of those assumptions means that his original statement was pretty untrustworthy.
netstack
The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.
14d ago
Unless I’m misreading this, the substack author had to reconstruct a method, since Pearson never explained his numbers publicly.
He was quoted in the report, which again didn’t lay out its calculation.
I had a section about that originally. He was mayor over like 10% of the population (but probably more of the gang crime). That doesn’t come with the kind of budget, or by extension firepower, of the presidency. You can look at the TCP for examples of his post-election policies.
I think he probably contributed to the overall decline; I doubt that he was uniquely effective.
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