netstack
Texas is freedom land
No bio...
User ID: 647
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Gas was up 45 cents between this morning and the time I got off work. I can’t tell if that’s a pro- or anti-Trump portent.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
It’s a legitimate point. We can barely manage to get most of the country free for Christmas.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Yeah, if things get that bad, we can just save time and end it.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Can they really rely on the rational calculus of anybody dumb enough to go out and riot?
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
In my experience, people complaining about mail-in ballots are not usually thrilled about giving federal employees another holiday.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Right, and then a big chunk of election law was passed to make this less likely. Did it actually yield an improvement? The next few elections didn’t have any similar complaints.
People are already sowing rumors about the touch-screen-and-printer devices popular in the last few years. I didn’t have any trouble with mine; obviously, that doesn’t rule it out.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
I’m predicting fewer mail-ins than 2020, even if the total is higher.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Mine was round, the middle third taken up by a white bar stating “I ✅oted!” Above the bar, stars, with stripes below.
But any will do. It’s the civic religion of it that matters!
Bush v. Gore involved over 5.8 million votes. At least 113,820 of those marked multiple candidates and thus could not be counted. That suggests a 1.95% baseline.
Here MIT corroborates the 1% number, but they don’t give their source in turn.
I can’t remember if my voting machine even allowed that sort of error. It definitely said “CHOOSE ONE OR NONE.” next to each office. Did they use checkboxes or radio buttons?
Anyway, I don’t see any reason to invoke the Cathedral. Research is rare (but not verboten) because it’s hard, not because it’s existential. After the “butterfly ballots” it was a reasonably popular topic.
I think your search results were just clouded by news stories about polling error, which is much more important to organizations trying to make their predictions.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
I couldn’t agree more. Even going last week in a Texas suburb, it was bustling. Local candidates out campaigning. An actual presence from both parties. And, of course, the powerful “I voted!” Sticker. Whoever thought of that was a genius.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Nah.
The traditional practice is dumping $2000 on a tacticool AR before Kamala bans them. Whether or not she wins, you must then sell it by Christmas. I figured I'd skip those steps and just buy ammo/accessories after the election, once prices sag.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Reality caught up to his brand of professional counterculture. Now he’s got to keep chasing the dragon.
Also, people will pay him for it.
“Influencers” are the natural consequence of applying Tumblr-style incentives to legacy media personalities. Balkanization encourages specialization, and Tucker is sliding towards a passionate, dedicated, decoupled-from-reality audience.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Militias? Sure, that’d count. Those are awfully few and far between.
I don’t believe I’ve given anyone a pass on looting and/or burning.
And I use the passive because I don’t believe “the left” is an agent.
It is possible that, after a Trump victory, some morons at a Mostly Peaceful™ protest go burn down the local 7-11. I don’t consider that organized violence any more than I consider the Charlottesville debacle organized.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
I’m inclined to call it “normal social maneuvering” instead of anything about social science!
make a claim that makes you look good in such a way that there is no way to call it into question
That’s definitely the crux of it. Some claims can’t be made to some audiences. Some questions can’t be asked to others. I don’t know if I can come up with a better example.
Regarding the edit—yeah, I feel that. I have a hard time going for brevity.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
I’ll take that latter bet.
I don’t think they’ll resist certifying unless there’s a Bush v. Gore level of doubt.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
I bet on Trump after the assassination attempt. I don’t think anything since then has really changed his fundamentals. Harris is a significantly better candidate than Mecha-Biden, but I’m not sure how much that affects swing states. High confidence she wins the popular vote, though. Trump enthusiasts are wildly uncalibrated on this.
Democrats are unlikely to fight certification. I guess there’s a possibility of a Bush v. Gore cock-up leading to a serious legal challenge? Not the “throw shit at the wall” approach of the Kraken suits. Trump found those by making it a show of personal loyalty. Harris can’t and won’t command that kind of initiative. She’ll give a polite concession speech, and if she has to retract it like Gore, she will.
Trump supporters will pitch a fit if he loses. I was at the local gun store this weekend; it’s become fashionable to say things like “winning the vote is one thing, making it through the count is another.” A Democrat victory is presumed illegitimate. Trump will continue to pander to this sentiment, refusing to admit defeat. Again. That won’t actually lead to violence, mind you; Texas’ continued lean red will satisfy their honor.
In summary, there’s next to no chance of organized violence by anyone. It is possible that a Trump victory leads to riots in Democratic cities, but there would be zero chance (or expectation) of that changing outcomes. It’d be violence for frustration’s sake. Conversely, there’s near zero chance of random pro-Trump violence. Coordination on the level of 1/6 is more likely but still implausible. Nothing more complex will occur.
My overall experience? Pretty unpleasant. The discourse has been terrible and the vibes rancid. I am incredibly disappointed at how many intelligent, articulate users on this forum alone gave up all pretense of rigor.
I didn’t vote in 2012. Every Presidential election since then has been a referendum on Donald Fucking Trump. I’m ready for him to be out of the news. He doesn’t deserve to be rewarded.
I voted for Harris, and so should you.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Okay, but that example is actually rude, no? Demanding someone’s measurements is not normal. Neither is insisting someone recant. Calling someone a liar is almost always picking a fight.
An observer would come away from this conversation thinking both participants are assholes and possibly stupid.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
Personally, I was invited. Zorba had to wait for my badge and gun to come in the mail before he could give me any permissions, though.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
To be fair, I didn’t see it at first.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
9mo ago
The surge in the 70s depends on Supreme Court jurisprudence which probably couldn’t have occurred before the New Deal. But I think capital punishment advocacy does date back to the 1800s. States like Michigan banned it early with explicitly Christian arguments.
Today’s split probably has more to do with partisan habits than with religion.
Concession within a day unless there's a Gore-level "too close to call". And I would like to think such would have been apparent by now.
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