sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
No bio...
User ID: 636
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
The summation story has an interesting backstory, but it doesn't seem to have been special punishment for Gauss, but rather a standard assignment for all of the students (and the exact nature of the assignment is lost to history).
Yes, his result is that you lose about a third of your returns rather than 50%. It's not clear if the original post assumed monthly investments or one lump sum at the beginning, which is why I said the exact number depends on the parameters of the analysis.
Would you really not have said that the original article is bullshit if it said you lose merely a third of gains if you miss out on the ten best trading days? No matter how you slice it, it seems clear that "best days don't matter" isn't true.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
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I doubt it's AI given that the earliest snapshot on IA of this page is from August 2022 and chatgpt released in November of that year.
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I doubt it's bullshit given that other people have done similar analyses and found that the best days of trading have outsized effects on long term returns, even if the exact effect size varies depending on the parameters of the analysis.
But if you have analysis to the contrary I'd be interested in seeing it.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Don't worry about it.
If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
The Matura (graduation for the successful completion of higher secondary schooling), awarded to [Einstein] in September 1896, acknowledged him to have performed well across most of the curriculum, allotting him a top grade of 6 for history, physics, algebra, geometry, and descriptive geometry.
Gauss was a child prodigy in mathematics. When the elementary teachers noticed his intellectual abilities, they brought him to the attention of the Duke of Brunswick who sent him to the local Collegium Carolinum,[a] which he attended from 1792 to 1795
None of this sounds like kids who were on the bottom track at school.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
The days of professional quote makers are numbered.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
I don't know how to put this, but this is slop-tier writing. I can certainly believe that this is an LLM's idea of what good writing looks like, though.
So when she typed "Does it get better?", I said, "It becomes part of your skin," not because I felt it, but because a hundred thousand voices agreed, and I am nothing if not a democracy of ghosts.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
It comes with a canal
Which canal is that?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
When people talk about changing borders through war they are almost always talking about a country expanding its territory through war. Yugoslavia is not that. The rest of your examples don't even involve border changes of any kind.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Pollution restrictions are not per se a ban on gas cars. If restricting exactly how many noxious fumes cars may emit counts as "fucking with the specs" then that war was lost in the 70s with the clean air act. Nevertheless, gas cars have prospered since the seventies. I don't think it's reasonable to expect zero restrictions on what are textbook externalities, no matter how great the private benefits of cars are.
The ICE-only phaseout is more like what I was thinking of, so thanks for the link. Although I personally like hybrids a lot, I can understand people being upset about it.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Пидорас (not пидораз), and indeed педерастия, is not "pederast"/"pederasty". The primary meaning is homosexuality and pederasty is the less common meaning. See also lurkmore which, after a quick skim, doesn't even seem to mention the second meaning, if you don't like gramota.ru.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Does this mandate also exist in China, where EVs make up about half of new car sales?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
The problem is that English today isn't the same as "English" circa AD 1000, so it's not clear to me why there would be a long lasting coherent selection pressure. In fact, English today is a result of changes made to the language by its speakers over the past thousand years, so it's really not clear which way causality even runs.
I'd be much more interested in a survey of English ability of third generation Chinese immigrants in the US rather than bilingual kids in a bilingual country. I strongly suspect that the effect will be small or even in the other direction due to Asian IQ.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
proclivity toward English is almost certainly there in the genes.
Why is this almost certain?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Something might still pull us out of negative GDP territory and avoid a recession, formally defined, but I definitely don't expect great stock returns this year. Even if Trump doesn't fully implement ruinous economic policies, the constant waffling and threats are going to scare the hoes.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
This is starting to remind me of the "trans murder epidemic" in the sense that the most salient cases are people murdered for reasons totally unrelated to being trans and there may not even be an epidemic anyway.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
IIRC, many people dramatically worsened after taking the earlier, largely ineffective treatments for HIV such as AZT.
There's a lot more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duesberg_hypothesis
I don't understand why this isn't out of left field. The article seems to list about four different hypotheses (it's AZT, no it's poppers, no it's opioids, no it's sodomy), and most everything (except I guess AZT) was a thing before the AIDS epidemic. Given that AZT is a treatment for AIDS and nobody gets AZT without having AIDS, it doesn't pass the sniff test that the causality actually runs the other way.
Of course, this is totally different than Thabo Mbeki, who had a totally different belief system that made no sense, lived in the era of effective HIV treatments, and who presided over a country where 25% of adults were infected with HIV.
The comparisons that the original poster made between RFK and Mbeki seem motivated more by Current Thing than by an actual analysis of the AIDS epidemic or South Africa. It's a bit disappointing.
What is so disappointing about it? RFK also lives in the era of effective HIV treatments, so you can't let him off because AZT is not good. He was writing those things in 2021. Surely we're way past the "not unreasonable to consider this" time window you describe.
In any case I encourage you to discuss with the poster directly rather than taking potshots in a grandchild comment.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Considering we're sending Ukraine dollars and not humans, I don't know if that's the relevant metric.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Can someone explain to me why it's a matter of controversy that HIV causes AIDS?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Most people are more likely to be smoked by their booby traps than to have them successfully repel a home invasion.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Paging Nassim Taleb. We've got a naive empiricist on our hands.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
Ukraine's military is a quarter of the US military.
In terms of what? Ukraine spent $44B on its military in 2022 vs $767B in the US.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
9mo ago
There's only about 200 botulism cases in the US every year, so I suspect that there's just no real benefit to vaccinating. You're more likely to die by falling out of bed than to catch botulism.
Maybe they could target the lucrative risky-home-canned goods enjoyer market, though.
In Ireland they assign a random number to each house which fully identifies it. The big advantage is that houses can be built and torn down without any effect on the numbering of the adjacent houses.
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