sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
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User ID: 636
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
Danish kids are also vaccinated against the flu.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
The last time I got into it about the vaccine schedule on this forum people insisted on counting each individual vaccine rather than the number of shots. I'm not sure how OP was counting it, but he might have been counting just the number of shots as you say.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
In your previous comment you suggested that natural selection will only come about in the future. Now you seem to imply that it's already happening. Can you be more specific about what your claim actually is?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
I'm having trouble understanding why there hasn't been any natural selection yet despite us being sixty years into the obesity epidemic. What, exactly, are the future conditions that we don't have that will bring about the selection part?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
The generation that's around when that environmental shift happens are going to get affected more-or-less randomly. The generations after that, if the environmental change sticks around, are going to inherit the responses of their forebears.
Perhaps. But, why should we care about this in the context of obesity? If the environment remains the same, and we medicate obese people with ozempic, it doesn't seem obvious to me that the obesity susceptible genotype will become more widespread than it already is. If the environment changes, who's to say that genotypes currently more susceptible to obesity won't become less susceptible? Either way, given the obesity numbers over the past few decades going up and to the right, I don't see an obvious natural selection story at play here.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
Surely the fact that the obesity epidemic is a phenomenon of the past few decades is dispositive proof that the epidemic is not genetic in origin, though I can believe that some people who were obese before were obese due to genetics. Genetics don't change that fast.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
My point is that if you suppress any illness that is selected against through its symptoms, you will get more of it, and that if you aren't providing a cure, you're essentially enlisting future people into the customer base for whatever mitigation you came up with. Insofar as the illness is heritable.
Sounds reasonable. My question is how it applies to the obesity epidemic since that isn't genetic. It may be heritable, but I'd bet all the heritability has to do with food habits that parents model for their kids. Ozempic solves that, so if that's the mechanism then the kids might not even need ozempic.
Here's an example longitudinal study of pretty much exactly what we're talking about here.
Thanks, that's good stuff. Interestingly, being underweight is about just as bad for male fertility as being obese.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
It doesn't have anything to do with genetics yet. The second order effects are the point.
I am not sure what your point is, is what I'm trying to tell you.
Also it is selected against. There's plenty of studies on this. Obesity even lowers fertility physiologically if I recall correctly. I'm not sure how one would even arrive at the idea that it isn't.
My simple mental model is that obesity and fertility are both associated with lower incomes. Obviously this isn't necessarily the full story, but I couldn't immediately find a study that really looked at BMI and lifetime number of kids. Presumably it's not easy since BMI is not constant. Physiological fertility effects are real but may not be decisive, so I'd be curious if you have more reading on this question.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
Given that the obesity epidemic almost certainly has approximately nothing to do with genetics and obesity is not even selected against (do fatter people have fewer kids? I doubt it), I'm not sure I see the connection to natural selection.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
So if he didn't have a kid, you would think it's less likely that he's a sociopath?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
I never found false consciousness arguments convincing and I'm not about to start.
Of course, with the advent of ozempic, this question is going to be completely moot in the near future.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
Smoking is probably the only one of those that's actually stigmatized today. Body positivity has normalized obesity. My PMC female friend is considering having kids with her boyfriend without marriage. 20% of high income people have tattoos.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
Every economist likes to think you can have the dirty raw material processing happening elsewhere and keep the fun, clean, super-profitable stuff for yourself.
We're outside the realm of "economists think" and in the realm of "past experience shows".
Long term, the same factors that make processing steel outside America cheaper also make manufacturing outside America cheaper. Conversely, senescent economies steadily lose institutional experience as they get used to having more and more manufacturing done abroad, which makes their top-level products increasingly uncompetitive as they forget how to squeeze out performance.
Even if true, this isn't an argument to speed up the process of eliminating manufacturing jobs by introducing steel tariffs. The American steel industry had plenty of time to stay competitive with cheaper countries and it has completely failed. Now you want to reward them so they can keep being fat and inefficient and at the same time make it so that nobody in the country can actually make competitively priced goods out of steel?
Experience with one part of the supply chain tends to feed into the next, more desirable step.
I doubt this is true in any meaningful sense, but in any case, we already have the next, more desirable steps. Why kneecap them by putting tariffs on steel?
This is why successive countries were able to move from 'raw processing and cheap junk' to 'serious manufacturing contender' to 'holy shit, everything's made in X now'. It's also why places like the UK or the Rust Belt no longer do even advanced manufacturing for the most part.
When those countries were doing raw processing, were they as uncompetitive as American steel? Or were they cheaper than the competition and therefore entered into a virtuous cycle? Meanwhile, putting tariffs on steel in an advanced economy is ensuring that you'll produce steel but hardly anything out of it, because it's just not cost effective. This a kind of cargo cult approach - China made a bunch of steel and they were blessed with cargo. We must go back to making our own steel at any price, and we too will be blessed with cargo.
The starting points here are different. If you're starting from scratch as a developing economy, it makes sense to start with raw processing because that's the simplest thing you can get in on and it lets you build business connections, etc.
As a developed economy that already has a long tradition of manufacturing further along the value chain, it doesn't make sense to tariff steel in the hopes of reinvigorating the manufacturing that's further along the chain. You are already making the stuff that competitors wanted to make all along, just make it cheaper and better. Steel tariffs pull in the opposite direction.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
They work on steel, on manufactured goods, on everything.
They "work" on steel in the sense that they make American steel competitive at the cost of making stuff made out of American steel not competitive. It also happens to be the case that making stuff out of steel employs a lot more people than making steel. Solve for the equilibrium.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
That's not relevant to what 2rafa said. Her point is that coscientist may have taken two days to serve earlier queries and only then gotten to this query.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
Doesn't sound like it.
He gave "co-scientist" - a tool made by Google - a short prompt asking it about the core problem he had been investigating and it reached the same conclusion in 48 hours.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
he loves China and wants them to defeat the US.
Seems pretty uncharitable. Why do you think he wants China to defeat the US?
I doubt this is an assimilation story. Hsu's dad was born in pre-revolutionary China and Hsu's granddad was a KMT general, so he'd have little familial reason to hold red China in high regard. Hsu himself was born in Iowa and has worked exclusively in American institutions - if he really loved China so much he could certainly move there.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
The Gen 2 will forever be my favorite Prius. That car had an unbelievable amount of cargo space. The newer models have much less, unfortunately.
On the other hand, the gen 2 is basically begging to have its catalytic converter stolen. This isn't an issue on the newer models.
Toyota warranties the hybrid battery for 10 years, so you can buy a used one without worrying that it's going to crap out on you soon after.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
I always liked the harpsichord intro in planisphere part 2.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
How much of that success is just being willing to license your product, though? Apple won't let you make a phone that runs iOS at all.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10mo ago
Lmsys ranking is not nothing, but we are getting to the point where most models are "good enough" from the perspective of the average lmsys rater and most of the interesting differentiation between models is going on in benchmarks that test specialized skill and knowledge that's not necessarily common among lmsys raters.
I couldn't be bothered to click through the tweets (I don't have a Twitter account) so I don't know if they published other benchmarks too.
The downsizing of the civil service is starting to sound like China's Final Warning.
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