sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
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User ID: 636
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
8hr ago
Intellectual humility is not code for "I'm going to maintain my preconceived notions prior." Your take is not to find the data, it's to dismiss the data presented that directly contradicts your implication that Israeli fertility vs Japan is due to women in Israel working more part time.
In fact, your claim was that it's "obvious" that this is the case, which doesn't sound very intellectually humble to me, so it's a little strange that you are turning around and using that cudgel against me when it turns out that it's not so obvious after all.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
10hr ago
We're not talking about checking anything off, we're talking about a number of hours reported.
You are of course welcome to reject reality and substitute your own, but it's a sign of epistemic closure when you don't update at all in the face of evidence.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
10hr ago
You are missing out on the fact that nobody will know if you don't return the wallet in Japan. Japan is even more urbanized than the US (90%+). Most people live in huge cities where they are just as atomized as any rich low trust society. That's why old people die in their apartments and are not discovered until the stink of their decomposing bodies makes them known.
As for NEETs, until 2004 the US had higher prime age labor force participation rate than Japan. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS?locations=JP-US
I guess Japan invented social shaming for NEETs 20 years ago?
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
23hr ago
info-hazard Daughter Question
I'm almost afraid to ask. Is this just the "think about it logically" copypasta?
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
The peak of US crude oil production seems to have been a few months ago, but as far as I can tell "wtf happened in 1971" style rhetoric is still in full effect.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
I'm not sure there exists a statistic real enough if it's not in the direction you expect.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
Indeed obvious.
65% of Israeli female workers work full time: https://www.taubcenter.org.il/en/research/gender-differences-in-the-labor-market-wages-and-employment-polarization/
40% of Japanese female workers work full time: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Women-s-working-hours-underscore-gender-disparity-in-Japan
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
Why return a lost wallet when it belongs to someone you don’t know, and you’re not going to get social credit for doing the right thing anyway?
You could ask the same question of people in Tokyo who do return wallets.
Collapsing this to a question of incentives is missing the point entirely. People who return wallets are not following incentives because the incentive is always to defect.
Or on the negative end, who in your area knows or cares if you never contribute to society?
The Japanese literally have several words for the different gradations of these people.
Your model of high trust societies seems lacking.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
there are a million ways to cut red tape besides allowing multiple family building in single family zones", but for some reason these organizations are ONLY focused on ways to increase density.
Really? Here's California yimby's policy page.
https://cayimby.org/resources/policy-framework/chapter-1/
Here's the red tape they want to cut that's not just up zoning.
Create a state-level board of appeals for permitting.
Direct HCD to conduct a review of international building codes.
Direct HCD to create rules and guardrails around nexus studies.
Direct HCD to provide guidance on representative "community input" models.
Direct the Law Revision Commission to study existing housing law and provide recommendations for simplification.
Reform environmental review for housing.
Standardize the post-entitlement process statewide.
In fact it's most of them. And I certainly don't see anything about enforcing urban growth boundaries.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
I have literally never heard a Californian complain about the unpleasantness of earthquakes.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
And it wouldn’t be enough.
What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
Look at the NYC and Jersey area.
We're talking about adding one-third of an NYC worth of housing in a single development to the Bay area, increasing housing stock by 40%.
I simply don't believe you. Bring a model that doesn't rely on eternal population growth which has already reversed in the bay area for years now and show your work.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
If California Forever alone (lol) was developed to Barcelona's density (note we are not even talking high rises here) it could fit 3.4M people.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
No, you can't even build housing in the middle of nowhere without hearing these nimby arguments.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Forever
https://protectcoyotevalley.org/
In east Alameda countythere's enormous amounts of empty space. Much of the prime real estate in Santa Clara county is warehouses or other industrial areas, and much of the bay area is really shitty SFHes built on shoestring budgets in the sixties.
That's off the top of my head.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
1d ago
Why would they keep buying it if the value of that housing is being diluted by all the new housing? Foreigners buy houses in these markets as an investment. The only reason the sunset is a good investment is because the supply of houses is fixed by the boomer death grip. If you could actually build something there it would cease to be a good investment.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
Up zoning is great for property values. The nimby argument is not due to property values but rather "neighborhood character".
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
No, you simply have to allow people to develop their own property.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
Lots of people do this (see Taiwan, Japan). Even in San Francisco there are tall buildings. There's no shortage of demand.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
If we are assuming omniscient tyrants we can probably simplify the system a bit.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
Incorrect, the bay area has been losing population since the pandemic, albeit at a slowing pace.
And the population becoming insanely wealthy like the Bay Area has because of tech and wealthy people moving in from all over the world can shift the demand curve to the right even if the population stays the same.
Okay but prices have been marching up in the face of declining population, so clearly people moving in from all over the world is not a factor. Perhaps you wish to bite the bullet and say that it's bad that people are getting rich in the bay area because they have higher willingness to pay?
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
This is Korea, so the answer is probably "work overtime".
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
Sejong
Christ, what a bleak pic on Wikipedia. A six lane arterial, two parking lots, and the world's saddest park. I can understand why existing cities become ugly. Why do people do this when designing new cities?
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
2d ago
Didn't we establish that California is losing population? Have a look at housing price growth over the same period.
If we're talking about childbearing you have to look at the prime age LFPR.
Israel at 81%: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25FEILA156S
Japan at 83%: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25FEJPM156S
Not such an enormous difference after all.
Any reason to believe this isn't factored into reported hours worked?
I don't hate complexity, I just don't like it when people couch arguments in "obvious" facts and then migrate to other facts when those obvious things turn out to be not so obvious. If it's about the vibes, just make the straightforward vibes argument and be done with it.
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