DirtyWaterHotDog
No bio...
User ID: 625
DirtyWaterHotDog
4hr ago
The Chinese, ever so respectful of American competence, would never pick an overt saboteur as an agent.
Chinese CIA, to maintain cover, picks a competent administrator as agent.
Goal is to only do the bare minimum and occasionally sidetrack projects as sabotage.
Agent becomes president and starts doing the basic stuff with only occasional sabotage.
still more than any president has done.
America start flourishing even more.
Americans love him and elect him another time.
I'd watch that film.
DirtyWaterHotDog
4hr ago
Not even close. The high literacy and civic engagement are a civilizational inheritance. It took hundreds, if not thousands of years to build.
The clan systems are embedded in Arab and Afghan societies in a manner that isn't comparable to anything in the west. Even during peak colonialism, Britain gave up on trying to control Afghanistan. Can't control a group that has no institutions what so ever. Arabs are a bit different. They had it, but after the mongols burned down Baghdad, middle-eastern Arabs did not have a unifying civilization for a very long time.
DirtyWaterHotDog
18hr ago
Fair. I too have concluded that democracy needs some base conditions to work.
Tribal clan systems (Arabs, Afghans) are incompatible with democracy. Pre-industrial states struggle to balance democracy and essential growth. Democracy and violent societies don't work.
DirtyWaterHotDog
22hr ago
- Joined December 2025.
- 118 comments
- dislikes Indians
- doesn't believe in democracy
- is fascist
Dude slow down. TheMotte is already in a MAGA spiral. It isn't intentional, the forum is well moderated. But, the median individual is a right-wing American and left leaning non-Americans are forced to have thicker skin. We've lost enough intellectual diversity through splinter events. There's no need to make this place more hostile.
Also welcome to the forum. I am one of the Indians here. Please get better at profiling. I await a moderate amount of hate, phrased in a civic manner.
DirtyWaterHotDog
22hr ago
Canada's position as a middling power is self-inflicted.
Post-melt, Canada's geographic position is as strong as the US. It too is a blessed land, that can sustain any level of ambition.
They can pump more oil. They can build arctic ports. They can mine rare earths. They can be agriculturally self-sufficient. They have some many options. They even have a sufficient number of elite engineering institutions to sustain local excellence. European and Asian middling-powers are constrained by what their land can support. Canada has no such limitation.
DirtyWaterHotDog
23hr ago
Vance is being discarded in favor of Rubio. There is a reason he was absent (and it isn't the pregnancy announcement) today.
Rubio is likeable, clearly smart, kinda white and kinda hispanic. He is one of the few pre-Trump Republicans who survived the purge and doesn't have a brown wife.
I have takes alright. I know someone at WEF and was getting minute by minute updates on leaders storming out and heated water cooler discussions. Stayed up the whole night watching this mess. Worth it.
High level : I am upgrading "Don't put the devil on the wall" to a tier 1 quote. Trump's anxieties and reckless tantrums are creating the very conditions that the US is trying to delay.
I don't have one takeaway, but a few unconnected thoughts.
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Trump's cabinet doesn't have a ounce of Trump's charisma. Even at his most nasty, Trump is funny, likeable and selectively cruel. Trump's cabinet wields the same sledgehammer but reeks of resentment. I believe more than Trump, Europe is uniquely disgusted by his cabinet. The list of likeable cabinet members starts and ends with Rubio. Trump can see this, and Rubio has clearly been elevated to his 2nd in command in public appearances. I believe JD's absence was not a coincidence.
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Going into 2025, MAGA kneecapped ascendant right-wing movements in Canada, UK and France. As a result, Trump is now negotiating with maximally adversarial partners in Carney, Starmer and Macron. US-Canada relations appear to have taken the largest hit. In trying to secure trade-routes in the distant North, Trump may have opened the salient opening across its entire Northern frontier.
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Western globalists spoke with clarity. First time for everything. To collectively articulate the end of Pax-Americana is a big deal. Words need to be backed with actions, but these are words we haven't heard spoken before. Discussions around Europe's lack of NATO funding, existing as a vassal state, disinvestment from the US & reverse technology transfer were anomalously candid.
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India finally gets a break. Trump 2 and Ukraine-sanctions left India on a weird island by itself. Turns out, when Europe was looking for an uncontroversial partner, being unhyphenated was a perk. To match US and China, it makes sense for Europe to strike a deal with India. Back-channel oil deals have been active for a while. But the the public and enthusiastic association with India will feel new to India, especially Modi's India.
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I don't buy the China partnership narrative. EU's remaining industry is under grave threat from China. Canada can't onshore Chinese technology this close to the US border. The US will intervene. Appeals to China felt like boogeyman narratives meant to spook the US. That being said, if Donroe stays entangled in the Atlantic, then China may pounce on Taiwan and the conflict may end with a whimper.
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I am bullish on France. In the absence of NATO, it will become the de-facto leader of the EU. They have healthy fertility rates, nukes, state capacity for large infrastructure (HSR, nuclear plants), native entertainment industry and independent full-spectrum military. Macron may get kicked out soon, but ngl, the sunglasses were cool.
DirtyWaterHotDog
23hr ago
Hah, took the test. Got the same score and same tensions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I believe you are right. A Morally consistent individual can perform evil actions. There is no contradiction.
Heck, that's the narrative crux of the Bhagvad Gita and the Mahabharata. For those unfamiliar with the canon, the climactic philosophical dialogue sees Krishna (god incarnate, head strategist and moral authority) convincing Arjuna (moral warrior) to commit acts of evil (kin-slaying) while keeping his morality intact. To drive the distinction further, Krishna later convinces Arjuna to perform an act that is both amoral and evil. (killing a nigh-invulnerable soldier while he is disarmed his back is turned). This time, the book forces you to feel collective disgust at this action.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1d ago
If AI happens, then then Mag 7 and S&P 500 will go to the moon. Keep money in stock market, and mint $$. China may rise and the rest of the US economy may suffer. But, tech companies will do well.
If AI fails and not much else happens, then world won't change. US hegemony will continue, 401ks will continue to be useful. If you are are worried about 401ks, then move them to RothIRAs. Pay tax now. But institutions won't collapse. If AI doesn't happen then China's population pyramid will doom them in 30-40 years. Assuming Trump doesn't single handedly destroy Pax-Americana, the US should be able to weather the Chinese onslaught.
US population pyramid stays well above where Japan is today till at least 2100. So, at worst, fertility collapse will look like 2025 Japan. Pretty good if you ask me.
making memories with family and friends now
Always a good idea. I regret not spending time with my grandad when he was lucid. I will likely regret not spending enough time with mom and dad when their health starts suffering. I am making more than my parents or I ever thought I'd make, and yet I am more stressed than ever. Money has no brought me happiness. The people around me have.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1d ago
Recorded a (trial) episode for a podcast (more like long form video).
Have the gimmick down. I cook, I talk. Effectively an ill-prepared and long-form version of Adam Ragusea.
Episode 1 is an hour long video of me cooking. I cook TomYum soup. Active time involves instructions and basics dos-and-donts. I fill passive waiting time by covering the history of tom-yum soup & the history of Thailand. I was there for vacation this Christmas, so the details are fresh in my mind.
On reflection, the recording is surprisingly decent. I expected it to be unwatchable. Need to say fewer 'ums'. I had previously beaten (literally) that habit out of me. Turns out it can always come back. But generally, it's alright. Haven't uploaded it yet. May never upload it. Still, technically, I followed through on a 2026 resolution. Good enough for me. I used to perform skit-comedy in university. It's been a decade since I did something like this. Did not expect it to be so nerve-wracking to be facing a camera again. I'm conditioned to find podcasting cringe. First minute was odd, but it felt natural once I got into the groove.
For future episodes, I want to decouple my cooking from my yapping. Cooking is a neat visual gimmick and hard-limits the runtime. The topics are meant to be outlets recent chat-gpt spirals.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1d ago
is PRC... Good?
Best run Govt. of the last 50 years for sure.
With that said, there are credible arguments I could be a devil advocate for.
wildly economically successful with a dynamic tech sector
How much of the spoils are experienced by the workers ? Intense Darwinian competitions means margins are paper thin. Winning comes with none of the stability or lifestyle perks that make economic victories desirable to Americans. Chinese winners get rewarded with more competition, sleepless nights and even narrower margins. Perpetual crunch-time sounds like hell, and Chinese citizens appear to agree. When given the chance, they hop over toe western companies that offer better life-style at the risk of slower innovation.
proud of its' culture and heritage
Post great leap forward there wasn't much culture or heritage left. Yes, China has a recognizable civilizational identity that's distinct from the west. But, modern China has little in common with erstwhile Chinese culture or heritage.
willing to forego
You'll never know what they're willing to do, because the Chinese never reveal their true thoughts to a westerner. I've had close PRC Chinese friends and they refuse to give me even a hint on what they think about the PRC or Xi. Get them drunk, high, vulnerable, doesn't matter. I don't know if it is brainwashing or defense against the dark arts. But, one things for sure. Neither you nor I know what the will of the Chinese people actually is.
forego some comfort
This is where it's important to draw lines. Is PRC China Xi's China, Deng's China or Mao's China. Where does the lineage begin ? Mao's consolidation, state capacity and land reforms were necessary for Deng's economic liberalization. If it starts at Mao, then 30 million deaths is not 'foregoing some comfort'. That's the greatest genocide since the Mongol conquests. It's simply impossible to talk about PRC China without talking about a Holocaust x 5 genocide event.
Japan, SK, Taiwan and Singapore have all done better than PRC China per-capita. If their genetic makeup is mostly similar, then PRC China's achievements don't seem THAT incredible.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1d ago
Congrats ! Hope it is a role that you're able to thrive in.
DirtyWaterHotDog
7d ago
Been monitoring it. My current read is.
- In number of protestors, Ayatollah's Iran has seen larger protests before. IRGC has quelled protests of larger scale.
- In terms of violence, these are the most violent protests Iran has seen since the revolution. This is in terms of property damage, outright protestor violence and retaliatory shooting.
- Protests were getting more intense until mid last week. Conflicting reports on scale of protests this week.
Protests are materially new in a few ways:
- Khamenei is old (this time for real) and has no true heir lined up
- Tehran water crisis is real. Civilians are stressed.
- Legitimacy of regime materially affected after
- For the first(?) time, protestors are chanting in support of regime change
Note, the Bangladeshi protests that led to regime change went on for 2 months, until Hasina was eventually pushed out. It took ~4 months in SriLanka. Iran is not an Arab nation, I think recent regime change in developing/middle income stable nations is a better proxy for what a revolutionary protest might look like, compared to Arab spring. In Nepal, banning internet forced more people into the streets, not fewer. So, hard to assign a positive or negative signal based on just the internet blackout. The main difference is that the IRGC is totally loyal to the Ayatollah, so an early military coup to limit causalities is unlikely.
DirtyWaterHotDog
7d ago
When people say 'tech' they mean silicon valley FANG/startup culture. Just as 'Media' was LA culture, 'Finance' was Manhattan culture.
Ofc, a lots of people are employed in these industries outside their hubs. But, the hub defines the culture.. For ex, NYC tech is post-hipster Brooklyn culture. Boston tech is humble-brag math-wiz culture. Seattle tech is REI-culture. But no one cares about distinct cultures of the satellites. It's all about the mother ship.
DirtyWaterHotDog
7d ago
What starts off as performative becomes internalized as personality given enough reinforcement. It's how frat bros are minted and why Mar-a-Lago face is contagious among MAGA.
SBF is a child of 2 law professors at Stanford with no indications of social-dysfunction in how they present themselves. He, like other autists could have learned to mask his autism and would've coopted the elite culture around him. ADHD kids need to be taught executive function, Elite sportsmen need to be taught financial restraint and autists need to be taught social behaviors. It's standard upbringing. Yes, he was more susceptible to peak autism. But so are millions others, and most of them turn out alright.
SBF ended going down an autistic spiral and that tells me his parents failed in raising him right. Parents didn't teach him coping mechanisms. And his behaviors were likely reinforced by the hyper selective spaces he found himself (MIT, Jane Street, mathcamp, stem prep school). Just the terrible sleep + stimulant abuse would explain half of his autistic spiral in his adult days. Add in hyper hedonism (esp. the orgies), EA psychosis and the insane amount of money in the mix, and it ended up in a predictable place.
Alex Karp of Palantir is a good example of an autist undergoing a autism reinforcement event well into his 50s. Look at any of his old interviews, dude was great at giving the appearance of normal.
Also,
Sam Bankman-Fried was born on March 5, 1992, to upper-middle class Jewish parents in Stanford, California - Wikipedia
In what world are 2 tenured Stanford professors considered upper middle class ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
9d ago
Doesn't help that her cat is called 'kitler'
Here is the kind of elite human capital you are dealing with :
I can feel in my heart that this is the year Sydney Sweeney will stop dating jews 🙏
Kitler (her cat), much like Hitler, has incredible fashion sense ⚡️⚡️
Happy New Year to all my Nazi friends.
On Venezuela being bombed
Another country that doesn’t have a jew-controlled central bank in US crosshairs
Fuck Donald Trump and his jewish masters.
Nobody voted for this.
Type of woman who would've volunteered to run the gas chambers.
DirtyWaterHotDog
10d ago
In the US, you'd be looking for an LMFT. I've noticed male ones on psychology today in most major cities. If you're looking for individual care, then telehealth is the way to go. Expands your options by quite a bit. If you are in California or Massachusetts then I know a couple I would recommend.
DirtyWaterHotDog
10d ago
OP is talking about a lesbian relationship. Lesbian relationships tend to be monogamous and serious. They report lower infidelity rates than straight marriages and have a predisposition towards commitment.
By your standard, why shouldn't lesbian relationships qualify for marriage status ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
13d ago
I had no idea that the average ice sheet thickness was 5000 ft ! basically Antractica on the North Pole.
DirtyWaterHotDog
13d ago
rare earths
Might be it. Greenland's rare earths have a large overlap with rare earths that are monopolized by China.
Might explain Venezuela and Monroe Doctrine too. Because Brazil has a ton of rare earths, and invading Venezuela may be part of keeping China away from the Americas.
That being said, China's rare earth monopoly has to do with how they have industrialized it. The rare earths themselves are moderately abundant around the world. I don't see how Greenland would help with the industrial process. That's the hard part.
Not worth destroying NATO and heralding in a tri-polar world.
join the dark side
Imagine this discussion if the car was a tiny Renault Clio. I was hit by an accelerating car as a kid, and I got off with a few scratches because it was a tuk tuk and I was wearing a protective school bag. NGL, that bag was a formidable cushion.
DirtyWaterHotDog
14d ago
treason no less severe than selling nuclear secrets to Russia or Iran
Amen.
May his holiness behead every twink who stands in his way. The crusaders will prevail. Constantinople will be red white and blue. It is the American way.
/uj dude, you okay ?
The ICE agent's actions were probably legal. But most normies will conclude at the woman should not have been shot dead. There is no dissonance between these 2.
The shooting itself is secondary. The peripheral conversations are more interesting.
First, there is a reason that countries avoid too many domestic law enforcement agencies. Civilians have context and learned behaviors for how to deal with the authoritative law enforcement agency (Cops). Civilians have zero context on how to engage with an ICE officer. Which laws do they abide by (local, state, federal) ? How do I recognize them ? What are my rights ? Am I entitled to bail ? etc. The context hole is filled in by aesthetic. ICE officers appear as masked men with guns who use excessive force to chase down people who (for the most part) haven't hurt anyone. The aesthetic is terrifying and the average civilian would understandably try to flee. MAGA itself has promoted this paramilitary like view of ICE, and people are correctly responding to it with fear.
There is rhetorical sleight of hand. ICE officers are cops in terms of discretionary power, but held accountable to none of the same standards as cops. In classic fashion, Republicans care about states rights until it's their guy in power. #TeamDoubleStandards.
Besides, why are 'tom and jerry chase' and 'headshot' the only 2 options available to an officer ? She was leaving. They could have let her go and found her later. This isn't some seasoned drug dealer that will camp out in another state. They could've just arrested her later.
Hell, the dude could have just not stepped in front of the car. It's not rocket science. In fact, it is specifically prohibited by a large number of police precincts around the country. I asked Chatgpt to find me some sources and consolidation of general best practices across police precincts and this is what it found for me.
- Not standing in the path of moving vehicles,
- Not creating a situation where a vehicle’s motion becomes the basis for deadly force,
- Limiting shooting at vehicles to true, independent deadly threats sources 1
In fact, MinneapolisPD is explicit about avoiding being in front of cars.
So yeah, the fed may get away with it. But at the very least, his actions were amateurish and caused the unnecessary death of a civilian.
Finally, the broad optics are just plain bad for Trump. The Somali scams were a slam dunk for his govt and Republicans could have built the 2026 midterm campaign on it. Instead, by killing a white mother on ground zero, the narrative has immediately shifted away from the Somalis.
It wasn't just the killing. Trump's response was despicable. The video isn't vindicating (unlike Rittenhouse) and it appears to validate many of Democrats accusations of ICE acting more like the mob than cops. Statistically speaking, increasing ICE action in Minnesota has led to an increase in the death of Americans by 1. Obama was already deporting the criminals quite effectively. Deportation of otherwise lawful civilians does not require guns, let alone deadly force.
There is no good angle for MAGA here. I'm seeing many popular right wingers (DeSantis was the most surprising) condemn the shooting. This is a big L.
DirtyWaterHotDog
15d ago
oof.
America is confusing. A society that emphasizes individual freedom and nuclear families suffers from strange Karens in the form of CFS and HOA abuse. These laws allow Karens to ruin your life through asymmetrical warfare, with zero repercussions or risk of de-anonymization. You'd think the loopholes would be addressed by now.
As an aside, I'm surprised that it the word 'Karen' is so new. This individual is so ubiquitous, yet a term only showed up in the late 2010s.
I visit France often. It is much safer than the US.
Marseille - France's stabbiest city has a lower homicide rate than SF or Austin. About the same as NYC and 17x better St louis.
Street protests and setting things on fire is how French people connect with their heritage. It's a performative French revolution. It's fiery, but they never destroy infrastructure like riots in the US. (Whether that be due to protests or a super bowl win)
Some suburbs are no go zones, but that's better than inner city no-go zones that a stranger can innocently walk into.
There is an issue with Parisian gangs and Mediterranean gangs. The later are a pan European problem. The former looks like a form of torture French people love inflicting on tourists to avoid over tourism. (Only partly sarcastic here)
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