DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
No bio...
User ID: 625
Sign - yes. It will be a net negative.
Magnitude and scaling characteristics - no.
All the promising positive effects are associated with warming in the north. Based on my previous research, Canada's North is a rocky shelf with a thin soil layer and Siberia's newly defrosted regions will be acidic marshes. There may be agricultural gains in the southern reaches of the Lena/Ob/Yenisei, but those will be limited. The Northern trade routes will reduce dependency on the Panama and Suez, but won't create any novel ground breaking trade routes per-se. Unless birth rates see radical change, the north simply isn't a place with enough people to require the sort of shipping activity that would benefit from Northern trade routes.
If I had to guess, the impact equation would be super-linear with a near impossible to compute constant term.
Economic loss = Humanly_computable_linear_term * temperature_rise^(1<super_linear_exponent_a<2) + Expected_penalty_from_catastrophic_outcome
To me, catastrophic outcomes = simultaneous famine in multiple bread baskets, AMOC weakens, irreversible drop in marine life.
The discussion devolves into a philosophical shouting match because the Expected_penalty_from_catastrophic_outcome involves multiplying infinitesimally small probabilities with negative infinities. The combination leads to a sensitive tail that can collapse to zero or balloon to negative infinity depending on which set of plausible assumptions you start with. Objectivity goes out the door at that point.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
10hr ago
+1
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
10hr ago
Bummed. Dislocated my shoulder right as I started playing pickup soccer on a regular basis.
Not too bad. But still bummed.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
12hr ago
I exaggerated for effect, but the point still stands.
Economics is useful. They are generally correct that "If someone affects GDP, then it is significant". On the internet, I observe a hubris driven undercurrent of (pop?)-economists who believe the inverse as well : "A thing isn't real until is shows up in GDP numbers".
Much like X-ray machines, economics is useful. But the MRI and ultrasound machines exist for a reason. (My recent shoulder dislocation causally affects my analogies, that's for sure)
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
14hr ago
In a classic move, I'm going to side step the point and rant about Economists and their obsession with observational statistics.
Economists have an annoying tendency of making selective use of math. I empathize. Hard Sciences have the luxury of operating in closed systems. Economics relies on a representative model of the real world, and LLMs are proof that such a model takes a minimum of trillions of data points. Economists get 1 data-point every quarter, at best.
We're arguing that the magnitude of damages is deeply and irreducibly uncertain, and trillion-dollar decisions need to stop being made as if it isn't.
This claim can be extended to most economic studies, many of which parroted as fact.
It is annoying on 2 levels. First, the same lack of data points doesn't deter Economists from making wide claims about all sorts of other topics. If you fashion yourself a statistician, then be consistent in the weakness of your posteriors. Second, if they fashion themselves as mathematicians, then they should consider studying a sub-field outside of Bayesian statistics for once.
I get what the authors are saying, but there are other methods for causally linking the economic impacts of climate change. Climate change when defined as 'increase in average worldwide temperatures, and increase in local temperature swings', is real. There is statistical consensus on that claim.
Higher temperatures increase world wide energy demand. For the first time, northern temperate areas need to purchase air-conditioners, ie. increased spending without productivity gains. The increased heat in tropics makes afternoon work nigh-impossible reducing productive labor hours. These increases are causally linked to economic harms. The magnitude & scaling characteristics of said harm need to be computed, but the direction of harm is obvious.
Increasing climate uncertainty affects farm yields. It increases insurance costs for everyone in the food supply-chain, with zero productivity gains. Increasing flood likelihood in places like Miami is making them impossible to insure. That's causal. Bleaching of corals is causally linked to rising ocean temperatures which is causally linked to diving related tourism in South East Asia. I could keep going.
There are causal economic opportunities too. The opening of year round Arctic trade-routes and the availability of somewhat fertile southern-Siberian lands should help increase GDP in Russia and Kazakhastan.
The authors correctly point out that nations are often going through events that are more disruptive than climate change (economic liberalization in India, Genocides in Africa). These events overwhelm the measurable impact on economics due to climate change. But of course. That's trivially correct. Trying to use observational studies on chaotic systems was always a fools errand. Like trying to tighten a bolt with a screwdriver.
There are direct and causal economic impacts of climate change. We can disagree on the extent and what regions would be worst affected. We can disagree on whether disproportionate impact on the tropics due to disproportionate consumption from temperate zones warrants a disproportionate burden towards energy transition. We can disagree on whether these impacts will bear out over the new few years, decades, or generations. But there will be an impact, that's for sure.
trillion-dollar decisions need to stop being made as if it isn't
Trillion dollar economic decisions are routinely made in presence of little evidence. At a national level, most economic experiments have trillion dollar implications and they have a spotty track record at best. After all, Communism was a world wide economic experiment that lasted generations.
Climate change driven economic policies are comparatively conservative. The transition to renewable energy & full-electrification in appliances was inevitable. Funding the infrastructure build-out for renewables & large-scale electrification made sense even if climate change wasn't real. Energy independence & decreasing reliance on exhaustible resources were worthwhile goals in-and-of-themselves.
Personally, as much as left-elite institutions have hand wrung (virtue signaled?) about climate change for decades, their actions haven't matched the urgency of their speech. Even at the peak of their powers, there was limited action towards combating climate change. If a vibe change leads to a further reduced action on that front, then we may undershoot the infrastructure build out needed to combat even the conservative estimates of climate change related economic impact.
I am not ranting at the authors specifically. The paper is solid and the conclusions are correct. I just wish economists didn't treat observational statistics and RCTs as the only means for establishing truth.
I'm partly responding to the self-congratulatory tone of climate-change-"skeptics" in the linked MR thread's comment sections. They will read 'no evidence = not happening'. I should know better than engage with this real but distant straw-man. But, alas.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
23hr ago
Not fair. Not fair !
There were people who wrote like this before LLMs. I love my analogies and metaphors. I love my bullet points. I love 'if this then that' framings. I did it first. It's not my fault that LLMs got trained on markdown loving verbose redditors.
It pisses me off. Claude and ChatGPT choose their respective writing voices precisely because they're effective. The LLM inevitably flanderizes these styles into a few repetitive tropes which together get recognized as 'slop'. But, that doesn't render the original styles invalid.
There is value in efficiency, but extra words aren't all filler. I like my ghost notes just as much as the accents. I love Paul Graham's - 'all killer no filler', in the way I like a tight 2:30s pop song. It's hook after hook. But dude, let that baby breathe a little. Let it paint a picture. Pace it to match the natural rhythm of emotions.
Rothfuss is the classic counter example to Paul Graham. I love both.
That being said, I agree with your main point. I'd rather read the raw authentic voice of an already good writer. Claude doesn't polish, it sands.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
3d ago
I'll defer to your best judgement.
My opinions come from first hand accounts of my Chinese coworkers. They complain about their jobs before coming to the US and they complain about how their parents still have to work long hours and are constantly worried about getting obsoleted. It's definitely true for some industries. Chinese tech companies have a reputation for 996. Foxconn factories are known for long working hours. In general, China's longer working appear to play a role in industries where China is accelerating past the rest of the world or competing neck-and-neck.
It's easy to forget that most people work boring jobs in unchanging industries like healthcare, education, general maintenance, restaurants, etc. ...... I can imagine that people work sane hours in those industries.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
3d ago
Doesn't seem like there is much of a pattern. In most cases it has to do with being a sensitive (but not feminine) dude who is a good listener. One was set up by a friend. One couple met in grad school. Another couple was part of a common friends group. One met on dating apps.
End of the day, having a diverse friends group is the best starting point. Most mixed-couples I know already had mixed friends groups.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
4d ago
No, but the US had to adopt strong protectionate policies to stop that from happening. America's outsourcing phase was intended at moving the now necessary exploitative practices to 3rd world countries to keep competing with the east asian grind. ofc, outsourcing only works as long as you hold the leverage. Once those nations upskill, they bite the hand that feeds them. In industries that are free for all (like tech), the culture is indeed becoming a 996.
Europe's economic decline is what happens when nations stop trying to keep up. You either enter a slow decline or suck it up and join the grind.
far too much domestic cultural inertia to drift more than marginally
It starts slowly at first, followed by a transition all at once. China has been kind of historically incompetent at producing novel art or aesthetics....so they may fail because of their pathetic marketing. But, that's more the west winning by default than them valiantly resisting a cultural transition.
Btw, Patek Philipe was an example, the tip of a much larger iceberg. I mean every luxury boutique band that creates aspiration, every fast fashion brand that copies it and every indie artists who creates quirky renditions of those same designs.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
4d ago
It's the same people. Nerdy west coast people love hiking.
Funnily enough I am good friends with more IndianMaleChineseFemale couples than WMAF ones.....but that's likely because I know way more Indian males in general.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
4d ago
Indians are not a monolith. It is a Europe sized union of diverse cultures, ethnicities and complex internal power dynamics. It is a cliche, but one that bears repeating.
In this case, you're reading her answers at face value. That's wrong. Her responses are signals, meant to identify her as part of the legacy cultured class. India's economic development has been paired with the rise of India's noveau riche. Conservative counter signalling is how legacy elites separate themselves. FOB immigrants vs 2nd Indian-Americans have similar dynamics. 2nd gen millennial/genX Indian Americans are likely kids of the legacy elite. The FOBs are the aspirational ex-peasants hoping to become the noveau riche. These groups do not get along.
Zohran is a great example. He signals a strong association to Islam. But, his family has been post-religious communists for 3 generations. Zohran's performative Islam is primarily meant to separate him from the noveau riche Muslims who are going through their 'we are actually liberal now' phase.
This writer is similar. Her last name (Kaur-Kohli) means that her parents married across cultures and religions (marathi-punjabi, hindu-sikh). You'd think she'd have lectured her own parents about their 'problematic' marriage.
If a person with a clean American / British accent tells you anything about Indian culture, feel free to ignore it in full. It's like learning about Italy from Tony Soprano. Hell, I've been away from India for half-a-decade and I'm beginning to feel under qualified to comment on the state of India. Things change very fast back home.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
4d ago
To me, it means they decide cultural practices. Cultural practices decide labor practices. Labor practices establish the lowest common denominator lifestyle that every country gets gravitationally drawn towards.
Eg: Working weekends is frowned upon in the US. China works 996. If all Chinese orbit countries work 996, then Americans will be forced to work those same hours to compete in an open market.
Eg: American businesses usually operate in a grind-chill-grind-chill cycle. The early years require grinding. But once you've established yourself, you can breathe easy and the $$$ keep flowing in. It allows Americans to enter lower stress periods in life, where they can have families and self actualize. This is a pl cultural practice of the US. Chinese companies operate in a grind-grind-grind pattern of ruthless eternal competition. You never get to rest. IMO, China's low birthrates (which were plummetting even before the 1 child policy) are a direct result of an all consuming work-life.
Separately, Cultural monopolization also affects aspirational and luxury spending. The west dominates luxury because global elites everywhere are cultural descendents of ivies-oxcam (nyc-london-paris) culture. If luxury and aspirational experiences take a Chinese shape, then people stop paying 100k for patek phillipe. People stop flying to see NYC and Niagara falls. People stop paying $100k/yr at ivies. A lot of money dries up.
Ofc, it won't be a wholesale shift. But a steady erosion of western cultural capital is a sufficient setback. The west has turned entitled, obese (mentally) and wasteful. There is no appetite for austerity driven pain. Much like Iran has proven in 2026, it only takes a few bruises to trigger domestic turmoil in the west.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
5d ago
Reminder to myself to reply.
I work on something very very close.
Please provide a copy of the Gross to Net Wages report for the period 1st September 2024 to 31st August 2025. Please outine which employees relate to [service centre 1] and [service centre 2].
We have people in our beta running exactly this query.
Please provide a copy of [service provider portal for government-funded services] report for the period 1st September 2024 to 31st August 2025 showing all income to both [service centre 1] and [service centre 2].
Yep
Please provide details of any Debtors Balances owed to each service at the 31st August 2025.
Yep
Data connection is hard....esp if there is no way to export data from a closed source.
But as long as you have something - an API/MCP (software connection to data) or CSV export (manual export), it should be doable. If you are willing to really burn money, you can give the computer permission to run your computer for you, in which case it will open the browser page and manually navigate to the specific information it is looking for. (even closed sources are viewable from a website). Although, the latter is very expensive, so no company is really working on it. But, it not a capability gap....just something companies think is not monetarily feasible YET.
The former 2 are definitely doable right now. They are closer to how Google search worked in 2000. Good but not perfect. But just like Google search in 2000, the steps to become better are very obvious to the experts internally. It is pretty much all hands on deck going straight towards it. But it will take between a few months to a couple of years to get there.
Trudeau is doing what nepo babies do. He is Canadian royalty. He fucked around for most of his life. Decided he wanted to run the country into the ground for a decade. Did it. Went back to fucking around.
Cope and seethe are useless emotions in face of privilege. Trudeau is less a person, and more a phenomenon. A natural disaster of sorts. 'Spoiled brat of a prince runs nation into the ground' is a familiar story the world over. 3rd world nations have evolved a certain anti-fragility towards this failure mode that western liberal nations have lost all together.
The outcomes of Trudeau's presidency are more a comment on those around him - the adults in the room, than Trudeau himself. You wouldn't blame a flood for bad plumbing.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
8d ago
I'll die when I die. What's there in it ?
Maybe it's because I was raised in India. When everyone around you believes in rebirth, there is a certain societal comfort with death. I'd rather not die of a prolonged sickness. The suffering in the lead up to death sounds horrible, but the dying itself seems like someone else's problem. I am gone, its those who remain who will have to deal with it.
I'll extend an olive branch. As long as voting rights are limited to those aged 20-70, I'm fine with increasing lifespans.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
8d ago
Sums up my opposition to longevity science and geriatric societies.
Death is the primary driver of change. Stubble burning is good for the health of a farm.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
14d ago
Update from my health worries last week.
Played a full 90 minute game of soccer. Been a while since I put myself through this sort of cardio. A bunch of new muscles are hurting. Feels good.
Did a couple of v3 boulders at the climbing gym this weekend. Not my best performance, but first time I've gone climbing this year. So that's good.
Been good about my diet, but I did devour an unnecessary slice of pecan pie due to 3am cravings.
I'll forgive myself for it. Going to skip lunch today to compensate.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
14d ago
In this case, Joe Kent specifically. I expect there will be more if the Trump train derails further.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
15d ago
Political calculus had little to do with why Trump started this war. It will have little to do with whether he resumes it. MAGA is a personality cult. His allies get political capital from him, not vice-versa. His allies have no leverage.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
15d ago
Conventional politics of the future is antisemitic. There is bipartisan agreement on it among the youth.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
15d ago
This comment is written with the assumption that the ceasefire will hold as is. It won't, and therefore my comment is irrelevant. Still, I poast.
Big L for Israel. Netanyahu spent 100 years of accumulated sympathy and didn't secure a permanent solution for any of Israel objectives. IRGC's survival means the survival of Hezbollah and Houthis. Hamas will be back soon enough. Each group now despises Israel with a newfound fervor. Good luck.
State side, antisemitism now has bipartisan support. A good number of normies around me are convinced that Israel is evil, that Netanyahu is the devil and that Palestinians are innocent victims. The narrative capture by is complete. IMO, overtime, Israel is likely to become a stronger military ally of UAE and Saudi Arabia than it is of the US. Their strategic goals are better aligned.
It won't be disastrous for Israel. In the spirit of 'nothing ever happens', the US will continue selling weapons to Israel, but at market price. Israel will continue existing with a real sense of threat from all directions and a vague anxiety that nuclear annihilation may be weeks away. Business as usual,. But, on the balance, Netanyahu will (and should) be remembered as a net-negative for the long-term security of Israel.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
15d ago
I don't buy the stories coming out of the White House.
There are 2 groups who have information.
One is those who have recently left the MAGA coalition (eg: Joe Kent). They seek to be re-integrated back into conventional politics. This group must find a narrative that fits : "I joined MAGA with the purest of intentions, but I could never have guessed that it was comprised because {reasons}". Israel as puppet-master is a perfect scapegoat for such a narrative.
Second is those who are still part of MAGA, but must find a reason for the sloppiness of the war with Iran. They must find a narrative that fits : "MAGA runs a tight ship, but our perfect plans got foiled by an outside {reason}". 'Bad intelligence from Israel' is the perfect story.
I will stick to the more plausible explanation (not necessarily Occam's Razor, but close) until proven otherwise. Iran has been an American military goal for decades. Trump thought he could could a Venezuela 2.0 with Iran. It did not work. The US has 30x the military spend & apparatus of Israel. If Trump takes major geopolitical decisions based on power point presentations from Netanyahu, then that makes Trump look incompetent rather than making Israel look malicious.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
15d ago
The ceasefire has to be a temporary face-saving measure so it doesn't look like another TACO. If today's ceasefire agreement stands, then it's a resounding victory for Iran. I expect bombings to resume in the coming weeks. 18th April, if I was a guessing man.
I'm not sure who benefits more from waiting. At face value, looks better for Iran. But we also know very little about the internal stability of the regime.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
16d ago
I have no idea why Claude Code is working so badly for you. I work at a FAANG-level company, and a huge amount of our code is written by Claude. Garry Tan is in AI psychosis, but Claude Code is easily the biggest productivity unlock in CS since I started my career.
Few recommendations:
- What thinking mode are you using ? Use at least
highormax. - For the purpose of this test, give it all permissions and link it to an mcp like context7
- This allows it to independently read documentation on your local and from remote sources
- Basic, but update the app. This lapse happened to a very smart coworker of mine.
- Use plan mode. It allows the model to build an intuition for the problem before it goes off on its own
- If you want specific behaviors, then ask for that. Something like:
- State and scrutinize your assumptions explicitly
- Consider and invalidate counter factuals.
- Utilize coding patterns that have already been established in the repo.
- Ideally, ask it to go write readme.md files for core utility dirs in your repo, so it doesn't cold start
- Pair it with a type checker / linter and add it as a post-model hook
- In python land, ruff & based-pyright are the tools of choice.
- I have used pre-defined open source linting rules, which allows the model to implement best-practice behaviors (eg: opinionated null checks) without human intervention.
I've noticed that the quality of the codebase plays a huge role in the model's ability to write effective code.
For ex:
It assumes that all endpoints return plaintext or JSON content, even though several return binary data, CSV data, etc.
Ideally, all endpoints will already be typed. The model should not have to guess the request-response types.
Unless there is a specific regression in Claude Code, I don't know why claude failed at your task. It should have worked.
Also, if you're looking for a model that prioritizes meticulousness, then I'd use codex. Codex has a tendency to autistically cover all of your bases, that benefits the sort of problem you're work with (again, Use in high or xhigh mode).
Everyone does not have a self-sufficient domestic supply of gas. Gas does not show up when the strait of Hormuz is blocked. Gas is a geopolitical liability.
Gas pollutes. Tail pipe emissions are a major issue in dense cities, which are the norm outside the US. The noise and tail pipe emissions benefits are sufficient reason to electrify or at least hybridize all cars.
Going by cursory google search, Natural Gas will run out between 2060-2070, is an energy transition isn't started. If it is inevitable, why wait for the 11th hour ? Gas is an end-of-life technology. On the other hand, solar and wind are becoming cost competitive with gas (as of 2026), their YOY cost reduction curve implies it will only get cheaper with time.
I should have clarified. I put nuclear in the renewables bucket. Agree with you on all counts on nuclear.
Nuclear as flywheel aside, concerns about the duck curve have been mitigated by the decreasing price of batteries. Seasonal variations will remain, but daily variations can be managed.
No need for a 'perhaps'. It is THE problem plaguing the west right now.
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