DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
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User ID: 625
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
18hr ago
In this case, Joe Kent specifically. I expect there will be more if the Trump train derails further.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
1d ago
Political calculus had little to do with why Trump started this war. It will have little to do with whether he resumes it. MAGA is a personality cult. His allies get political capital from him, not vice-versa. His allies have no leverage.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
1d ago
Conventional politics of the future is antisemitic. There is bipartisan agreement on it among the youth.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
1d ago
This comment is written with the assumption that the ceasefire will hold as is. It won't, and therefore my comment is irrelevant. Still, I poast.
Big L for Israel. Netanyahu spent 100 years of accumulated sympathy and didn't secure a permanent solution for any of Israel objectives. IRGC's survival means the survival of Hezbollah and Houthis. Hamas will be back soon enough. Each group now despises Israel with a newfound fervor. Good luck.
State side, antisemitism now has bipartisan support. A good number of normies around me are convinced that Israel is evil, that Netanyahu is the devil and that Palestinians are innocent victims. The narrative capture by is complete. IMO, overtime, Israel is likely to become a stronger military ally of UAE and Saudi Arabia than it is of the US. Their strategic goals are better aligned.
It won't be disastrous for Israel. In the spirit of 'nothing ever happens', the US will continue selling weapons to Israel, but at market price. Israel will continue existing with a real sense of threat from all directions and a vague anxiety that nuclear annihilation may be weeks away. Business as usual,. But, on the balance, Netanyahu will (and should) be remembered as a net-negative for the long-term security of Israel.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
1d ago
I don't buy the stories coming out of the White House.
There are 2 groups who have information.
One is those who have recently left the MAGA coalition (eg: Joe Kent). They seek to be re-integrated back into conventional politics. This group must find a narrative that fits : "I joined MAGA with the purest of intentions, but I could never have guessed that it was comprised because {reasons}". Israel as puppet-master is a perfect scapegoat for such a narrative.
Second is those who are still part of MAGA, but must find a reason for the sloppiness of the war with Iran. They must find a narrative that fits : "MAGA runs a tight ship, but our perfect plans got foiled by an outside {reason}". 'Bad intelligence from Israel' is the perfect story.
I will stick to the more plausible explanation (not necessarily Occam's Razor, but close) until proven otherwise. Iran has been an American military goal for decades. Trump thought he could could a Venezuela 2.0 with Iran. It did not work. The US has 30x the military spend & apparatus of Israel. If Trump takes major geopolitical decisions based on power point presentations from Netanyahu, then that makes Trump look incompetent rather than making Israel look malicious.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
1d ago
The ceasefire has to be a temporary face-saving measure so it doesn't look like another TACO. If today's ceasefire agreement stands, then it's a resounding victory for Iran. I expect bombings to resume in the coming weeks. 18th April, if I was a guessing man.
I'm not sure who benefits more from waiting. At face value, looks better for Iran. But we also know very little about the internal stability of the regime.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
2d ago
I have no idea why Claude Code is working so badly for you. I work at a FAANG-level company, and a huge amount of our code is written by Claude. Garry Tan is in AI psychosis, but Claude Code is easily the biggest productivity unlock in CS since I started my career.
Few recommendations:
- What thinking mode are you using ? Use at least
highormax. - For the purpose of this test, give it all permissions and link it to an mcp like context7
- This allows it to independently read documentation on your local and from remote sources
- Basic, but update the app. This lapse happened to a very smart coworker of mine.
- Use plan mode. It allows the model to build an intuition for the problem before it goes off on its own
- If you want specific behaviors, then ask for that. Something like:
- State and scrutinize your assumptions explicitly
- Consider and invalidate counter factuals.
- Utilize coding patterns that have already been established in the repo.
- Ideally, ask it to go write readme.md files for core utility dirs in your repo, so it doesn't cold start
- Pair it with a type checker / linter and add it as a post-model hook
- In python land, ruff & based-pyright are the tools of choice.
- I have used pre-defined open source linting rules, which allows the model to implement best-practice behaviors (eg: opinionated null checks) without human intervention.
I've noticed that the quality of the codebase plays a huge role in the model's ability to write effective code.
For ex:
It assumes that all endpoints return plaintext or JSON content, even though several return binary data, CSV data, etc.
Ideally, all endpoints will already be typed. The model should not have to guess the request-response types.
Unless there is a specific regression in Claude Code, I don't know why claude failed at your task. It should have worked.
Also, if you're looking for a model that prioritizes meticulousness, then I'd use codex. Codex has a tendency to autistically cover all of your bases, that benefits the sort of problem you're work with (again, Use in high or xhigh mode).
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
4d ago
In my framing, Blue Wave in house = House flips decisively, and Senate flips a few unexpected seats. Blue Wave in Presidental election = trifecta. My 'probably wrong' opinion for 2028 is that Dems will try to remove the filibuster. In such a world, you don't need a 60% majority for a blue wave.
increasing venom and promises of injury to the outgroup
Unfortunately true. A significant and consistent trend.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
4d ago
Southern Blacks don't decide elections anymore. NC and GA have lost importance. Dems don't need either state to reach 270. PA, MI and WI are the most important swing states now.
On a longer timeline, the Democrat's dream of a multi-colored coalition is no more. They imagined an impregnable blue wall built off the increasing number of Hispanics, Browns, Blacks & Liberals. That illusion has been fully shattered, as many men of all persuasions have gone full MAGA.
The Democratic National Committee will choose one state each from four regions as well as a possible fifth state:
- East: Delaware, New Hampshire.
- Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan
- South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia
- West: Nevada, New Mexico
If Pete gets through the primary, Blacks are still going to vote Democrat. Losing a small percent of black voters isn't disastrous. For these primaries, early voting states will matter a lot. I'd say Pete has a good shot with 3/4 regions.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
4d ago
He'd be an excellent VP. A Newsom-Buttigieg may work. I get the sense that Newsom loves to be a pretty face, while an in-the-weeds VP gets work done. A Reagen-Bush1 / Bush2-Cheney ticket if I've seen one. #ReturnOfTheNeolibs ?
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
5d ago
TBF, getting anything done as secretary of transportation under the woke, catty and obstructionist Biden admin may be a harder job than being President. Look at Kamala. I don't know her personal opinion on open borders, but it didn't look like she had much power to affect what would happen at the border.
Did the Biden admin get anything done ? Cabinet members were seen blocking policies, doing woke stuff and allocating budgets. Sounds like those were the only things the wider apparatus allowed them to do.
It's not branding. Compared to the other candidates (Kamala, Newsom, AOC), he is the the technocrat chungus. Then there are the 'blue-winners-in-read-states' candidates, none of which have differentiated themselves.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
5d ago
you're right....
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
5d ago
Trump is in a bad place.
It's 6 months before the mid-terms and polls imply a blue wave. In 2018, He had higher approval ratings, a thriving economy and no war....yet he got knocked down by a blue wave. With the way things are trending, it would take a great fumble for Dems to lose the house. Trump may also lose sufficient seats in Senate, so that 2028 could shape up to be a trifecta win for a Democrat.
Remember when Biden was making stupid decisions, and every Republican was (correctly) convinced he'd gone senile? That's the center-left on Trump right now. Occam's razor. Trump is losing a war. He's out of ideas. He is panicking. His incompetent and arguably America's all-time lowest IQ cabinet does not help. Rubio and JD are smart, but they can't salvage this mess.
2028 will be very hard to predict. The next (likely Democrat) President will either need to be a great uniter or a technocrat policy wonk. Newsom is highly divisive, esp in Republican states and seems kinda stupid. Would be quietly disastrous for the US. I hope he doesn't win the primaries. I like Pete, but black-homophobia may tank his campaign again. Would not be surprised if an out-of-left-field candidate showed up for 2028.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
6d ago
'Never waste a good crisis' ?
The weight creates shame. The shame motivates effort. Helps my system hit terminal velocity willpower. Thankfully, my mental health is a good place, so I use shame productively.
I like the point about GLPs. I'm lucky to easy access to cheap GLP drugs. Then there is story about when the CEO of one of the largest GLP startups tried to sleep with a thinner me, but that's for another day.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
6d ago
Thanks for information btw.
As it stands, I have updated by priors. Reduced my apprehension towards them and calibrated the urgency to get on them.
I am setting a concrete deadline for end-of-year to get my cholesterol & weight in control. If it doesn't work, I'll take my doctors advice on statins.
I'm skipping GLP-drugs because I want to solve the root cause, not just the symptoms. Sleep, diet and work outs first. Rest will follow.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
7d ago
I am worried about my heart.
I'm in a well compensated but demanding phase of my career. A promotion is on the cards, but hours are long. I have a chip on my shoulder, so the promotion is as much about career advancement as much as proving something to myself. It has taken a toll on my body. My weight has gone past 200 lbs and stayed above 200. Workouts, sleep and diet are all suffering. I don't like it.
I have a benign heart condition (Mitral valve prolapse) and South-Asian fat distribution puts me at elevated risk of heart disease. Then last year, my cholesterol went past the normal range. I've ignored(with her knowledge) my doctor's precautionary recommendation to use statins. The idea of a 30 yr. old being on permanent medication scares me.
For a bit, I put health first, and it worked. I lost 10 pounds and reached solid conditioning. Since then, my weight & conditioning have suffered as work has piled up. I have delayed my most recent blood test because I am worried the numbers spell disaster for me. Not a good look.
That brings me to last week. I have felt some tightness in my chest. Now, the location switches between the left and right side, so I'm sure it's some combination anxiety (too much coffee) and bad sleep & diet induced digestion issues.
But it scared the living shit out of me. Man, what am I doing ? I'm a grown man. I worked this hard to get to enjoy life and escape my 3rd world hell hole. I have my whole life in front of me. Need to get my priorities straight.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
9d ago
You're projecting MAGA demographics onto to woke people.
Woke people are usually aware of both Modi and the caste system. It may a couple of sentence, but they know. "Isn't Modi the hindu fascist? Isn't the caste system like slavery but worse? Are there still untouchables in India? I hear Modi is genociding the muslims in India". They know.
Indians in the west are politically homeless. Neither the woke or MAGA want them. It's mostly gray tribe 'Indians looks good on statistics' crowd that defends them.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
9d ago
I don't believe it yet. Let me sit on it.
It it'll take a few months for the acid reflux to go back down. May give it a shot then.
I know the core thesis I'll be going for:
If HBD is real, then a meritocratic world is an unfair world. If society offers no means for the 'idiot' to flourish, then one must resort to the oldest response : violence. The idiot is fooled by rhetoric and imagery. Give them representative faces and a rhetoric, to keep them docile. Elites get to be elites as long as they pay woke dues and the idiots find dignity in being part of the underclass. It's corporate harassment training implemented for society at large. No one enjoys the theater of it. But, it's a stable equilibrium and there is something to be said for stable equilibria.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
9d ago
I think you missed the 'kill me' part of my comment. Gamergate happened right as I was becoming political. I was anti-woke from the very beginning.
India has the world's most popular right wing leader - Modi. Therefore, it is hated by the woke. Western Indians are wealthy, which also puts them at the bottom of the woke totem pole. There is reason that MAGA has so many Indians. Most aspiring Indians pray at the altar of merit. It puts them at odds with the woke. 2nd gen Californian Indian women and Indian muslims have specific reasons for being woke. They're edge cases that'll take their own post. But the median Indian stem guy disagrees with woke culture and hates socialism.
at least supportive of brown people who suffered from colonialism
The woke, in their wilful ignorance, view western Indian hindus as upper class Brahmins. It treats them as oppressors. Little sympathy is extended to this lot.
Now, back to where we were....
Maybe woke wasn't so bad after all
It is an uncomfortable question I am asking myself as much as I'm asking the community.
The question isn't if woke is bad. The question is whether it is the lesser of 2 inevitable evils. Let's assume the disillusioned populace wanted to express their populist discontent by associating with a stupid and shiny movement. In that scenario, was woke the worst of all options ? MAGA and the woke are cut from the same cloth. Both view the world as a zero-sum race conflict. Demographic and loyalty points take priority over merit. Both movements have their gray tribe intellectuals and policy wonks who're kept at an arms length from power while the identarians find themselves on the throne.
If these negatives are a foregone conclusion, which flavor of it would I be able to live with ?
Idk. I genuinely don't so. That's why it is an interesting question.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
9d ago
Reads like consensus building.
TheMotte is the TheMotte. Exiled weirdos call this place home, as do normies with high openness. Neither gets to define what this place is or isn't.
It's no secret that the median individual on this forum has been steadily shifting right. It's a valid concern. The place risks turning into an echo chamber. Scratch that. The risk was realized, and this place is nearing a complete transformation into an echo chamber. I don't mind a shift in the Overton window. I do mind the decreasing quality of discourse.
Sometimes it feels like TheMotte is stuck in 2020. Woke is over. Trump is president. MAGA won. Where is the America that was promised ? Consider this. What if the forum has gotten boring because people are too scared to express the true contrarian opinion?
"Maybe woke wasn't so bad after all." (kill me)
First of all, so long, farewell!
Thanks, but no thanks. I liked what this place was. In its current state, it still exceeds the bar (low as it may be) for discourse on the internet. I'll bitch and moan as much as I like. That's my right.
I was about to summon my heritage motteizan creds. I hear JD's worldview carries weight around these parts. Alas, you created an account 1 full day before me. I concede defeat.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
9d ago
Some unlikely recommendations:
Blue Period. Does an excellent job of capturing coming of age anxieties through the lens of art-commenting-on-art.
Oyaji. I don't know what it is about this manga. It conveys a flawed patriarch's parental love in visceral manner. It is short, and I couldn't put it down. It's not perfect but it is focused and memorable.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
9d ago
Anti-anything is a bad way to raise children. Pro-something is a better.
How does one handle the hypergamy question?
In my experience, lead by example. In my extended family, a cousin's likelihood to stay in committed relationships is directly related to the health of their parent's marriage.
How to balance tolerance with an appropriate level of caution around "inner-city youth"?
Exposure. Take them around the city. Let them see the city. They'll start pattern matching. The most sheltered are the most delusional.
gospel of success through hard work and mastery through practice?
Set up increasingly demanding loops of challenge -> struggle -> gratification.
At a personal level, figure out if you want to indoctrinate your kids with your opinion or give them the tools to form their own.
DirtyWaterHotDog
in an abusive relationship with you lot
14d ago
It relates to the traditional wisdom - "Regulations are written in blood". Much like it, "enterprise software is written in the tears of disillusioned engineers".
Yes, Adobe Premier is a few million lines of code, and LLMs can create millions of lines of code within weeks. However, Adobe premier wasn't one-shotted by a person, and an agent can't one-shot it either. The only way to build an excellent enterprise tool is to build a shitty enterprise tool, get feedback, and improve it with time. In startup speak, this private feedback is referred to as 'moat'. LLMs make this loop faster, but you can't skip it. eg: State of the art forecasting have great benchmarks, but routinely generalize worse than ARIMA. The only way to know this is to have spent years in the trenches trying to get some new paper into prod. The techniques needed for AWS to provide 11 (0.000000000001% chance of failure) 9s of durability will never be discovered by OpenAI unless they pay-off the hundreds of AWS people who meticulously got it there. That information is guarded in vault somewhere.
Coding agents are an exception because AI companies are their own customers (so feedback loops can precede adoption) and the code/discussions/learnings are publicly available.
The king is dead, long live the king!
Startups like Runway and Chinese companies like Kling are still around, and AI video generation is only getting more popular. The big players like Google and Tiktok have better in house models than OpenAI. It is a crowded space. Sora was first to market for this caliber of video models, but the space has left Sora behind.
There are 2 reasons OpenAI abandoned Sora, and it has little to do with the viability of AI video gen.
The primary reason is because OpenAI was spread too thin. Enterprise agents are the trillion dollar market, and OpenAI is currently losing to Anthropic. It spooked OpenAI and late last year, they changed focus to Codex. Since then, OpenAI has deprioritized ChatGPT, voice models, music models and ofc, Sora. It's not that video generation is not a lucrative market. But, it's 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the enterprise agents market.
The secondary reason is that OpenAI is not well positioned to win here. Video generation and editing is primarily about control and iterative improvement. You start with a story board -> create a 1st draft -> use a vast tool-kit to iteratively get it to the final version. Sora is great at creating the 1st draft, but the likes of Adobe & Apple have the whole tool-kit built out. Unless the model is capable of fine edits, it will not be a useful substitute for filming it manually. ChatGPT: the product is a thin wrapper on top of ChatGPT: the model. The effort needed to turn it into a commercially viable product is minor when compared to the research effort of creating a GPT v-next model. On the other hand, most of the effort with a commercially viable video generation product is in the product engineering, not the model itself. That's asking a lot lot of effort from OpenAI in an area they are not best equipped to beat seasoned product engineering teams at.
tl;dr: Video generation will survive. The bubble isn't popping. A better analogy is - 'The gold rush ended because someone just discovered a Diamond mine'.
For context, I worked for an LLM/diffusion based content-gen AI startup for a few years. I was very early to this. Frankly, it an indictment of my judgement that I am not yet a millionaire. Should've joined OpenAI or Anthropic in early 2023 while I still had the chance. SMH
Update from my health worries last week.
Played a full 90 minute game of soccer. Been a while since I put myself through this sort of cardio. A bunch of new muscles are hurting. Feels good.
Did a couple of v3 boulders at the climbing gym this weekend. Not my best performance, but first time I've gone climbing this year. So that's good.
Been good about my diet, but I did devour an unnecessary slice of pecan pie due to 3am cravings.
I'll forgive myself for it. Going to skip lunch today to compensate.
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