sickamore
6mo ago
holy smokes man, thanks for writing all this up. Very clearly explained here, appreciate the alpha.
I wanted to make a top post about a few topics around the election like my puzzlement with the esteem Nate Silver gets, or talking about my approach to political betting, and listing my predictions, but I guess I'm just too lazy. I logged in on Monday to do it but instead scrolled and reply guyed.
You should definitely do it, I'm sure that, like me, many people would find this stuff fascinating, and there isn't too much public info on prediction market techniques and what not (except for very rare strategy posts on Kalshi regarding e.g. the Temperature markets - which mostly boil down to "read the rules, dumbass"). Obviously most of us here don't have the same resources as that French trader who commissioned his own polls, so comparing existing/past data and over/underestimation trends is def the way to go. 'preciate it!
sickamore
7mo ago
California has a little more than half the votes tallied right now, and the anti-crime Prop 36 is at 70% YES votes. If this holds, Prop 47 is basically repealed.
Notably, CA Gov. Newson campaigned against Prop 36, while Harris refused to give an answer on her stance when she was asked.
The Los Angeles DA George Gascon also lost re-election. He was one of the most progressive DAs and was a proponent of Prop 47 if I remember correctly. He was also DA in San Francisco before his LA stint.
Seems like a broad indictment against crime in California. Not sure how much change I expect to see in places like SF, but it seems positive imo.
sickamore
7mo ago
I saw that NYC went 1/3 for Trump. Getting 67% of votes is the worst Dem result in NYC since 1870 or something.
sickamore
7mo ago
Yesterday, I put down various cash bets around Harris winning the Popular vote. "Surely Dems win the popular vote regardless of the electoral college!"
I actually was convinced that I was onto a free money glitch by buying "Harris/Dems win the popular vote" at 25cents. I also put bets into "Trump wins 2/3/4/5/6 swing states", neglecting to even consider he wins all seven swing states.
Whoops, NOPE! I'm grossly miscalibrated. I actually did not have faith in prediction markets, and thought all "dumb" rep voters were skewing Polymarket/Kalshi etc. I'm laughing at myself that I actually thought I'm not at the top of the bell curve.
How do i get better at this? Some of my current thinking is:
- twitter / X is actually representative: I skew center-right, so mostly see pro-DJT/Rep tweets. I thought that's a bubble + history meant for sure popular vote. Not sure how much to calibrate the other way. Will I see same amount of pro-Republican views in 2028 even though it could very well swing back towards the Dems in 4 years?
- Betting against Elon Musk: Peter Thiel said "I would never bet against Elon... in anything. That's, sort of, hard rule number one". I think I will actually have to take this stance seriously, even though Musk is not infallible.
- Voter turnout number expectations:
- non-white voting blocks going towards Trump: I knew there's an undercurrent of latino and black guys voting for DJT, but didn't realize how much of the Latino vote he got. He didn't win the black vote by any means, but definitely out performed. Also, for whatever it's worth, the Michigan Muslim (and Arab in general?) vote. Will this continue, or will they flip flop back to the Dem coalition next time?
- I didnt like Hilary Clinton in 2016 and I had even worse feelings about Harris this year. How much does that matter to the election in general? The comments on Trump and JDVance's Joe Rogan appearances were very positive, but that is in line with the "typical" Rogan fan. Does that represent the 30 year old guy vote?
- I knew I lived in a bubble since i've only lived in coastal elite cities. At the watch party at a bar in my huge coastal city, everyone cheered for every Harris thing and booed everything Trump. I know the women feel that way, but do all the men too (or are they trying to get laid?). Two blond women did come in late and cheer quietly when some Rep senator won, but not sure if those two were tourists.
- had 2 data points from friends that their bucks county relatives all voted Trump, but I disregarded it. This one is hard since these friends are libertarian/center right like me. But perhaps next time giving more credence.
what else have i missed? Gotta think on this more.
Maybe I will do more small prediction market bets to hone my forecasting. Does anyone here know if this is a skill that can be honed and trained, without dedicating your entire life to it?
sickamore
7mo ago
JD Vance mentioned banning Pharma ads on TV during his appearance on Joe Rogan pod. Plus RFK maybe?
sickamore
7mo ago
imo btc and others will puke and retrace, but real lift off comes soon after that
sickamore
7mo ago
government should incentivize social goods. which is what RDOF is about.
sickamore
8mo ago
but drug prohibition in other places do quite well. Korea, China, Japan, Singapore, - in comparison US basically does not prohibit drugs at all.
sickamore
10mo ago
but why not assassinate in Qatar? qatar is sorta isolated in the Gulf - saudi/uae etc doesnt like qatar. Only thing i can think of that shields qatar is some nebulous relationship with USA, but even that doesnt feel very concrete
sickamore
11mo ago
FYI, there does not seem to be an actual "pact" or "agreement" for 50 years of petrodollar. (If you look at your link, it's not an article by the actual "nasdaq" but by some affiliate "tipranks")
China for example has been buying oil denominated in RMB since last year, this "petrodollar going away" isn't a singular event that happens.
US will still be the most used currency in world trade by some margin, though its share of the total will gradually decrease... probably.
yep agreed on this criticism. I'm dont fully understand why all this money is routed via Rockefeller Philanthropy, but doesn't seem like an open-and-shut case as DataRepublican posted (https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1886161143108149298)
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