sickamore

0 followers follows 0 users joined 2022 September 07 00:13:50 UTC

No bio...

User ID: 899

‎

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

sickamore 8mo ago

Yesterday, I put down various cash bets around Harris winning the Popular vote. "Surely Dems win the popular vote regardless of the electoral college!"

I actually was convinced that I was onto a free money glitch by buying "Harris/Dems win the popular vote" at 25cents. I also put bets into "Trump wins 2/3/4/5/6 swing states", neglecting to even consider he wins all seven swing states.

Whoops, NOPE! I'm grossly miscalibrated. I actually did not have faith in prediction markets, and thought all "dumb" rep voters were skewing Polymarket/Kalshi etc. I'm laughing at myself that I actually thought I'm not at the top of the bell curve.

How do i get better at this? Some of my current thinking is:

twitter / X is actually representative: I skew center-right, so mostly see pro-DJT/Rep tweets. I thought that's a bubble + history meant for sure popular vote. Not sure how much to calibrate the other way. Will I see same amount of pro-Republican views in 2028 even though it could very well swing back towards the Dems in 4 years?
Betting against Elon Musk: Peter Thiel said "I would never bet against Elon... in anything. That's, sort of, hard rule number one". I think I will actually have to take this stance seriously, even though Musk is not infallible.
Voter turnout number expectations:
non-white voting blocks going towards Trump: I knew there's an undercurrent of latino and black guys voting for DJT, but didn't realize how much of the Latino vote he got. He didn't win the black vote by any means, but definitely out performed. Also, for whatever it's worth, the Michigan Muslim (and Arab in general?) vote. Will this continue, or will they flip flop back to the Dem coalition next time?
I didnt like Hilary Clinton in 2016 and I had even worse feelings about Harris this year. How much does that matter to the election in general? The comments on Trump and JDVance's Joe Rogan appearances were very positive, but that is in line with the "typical" Rogan fan. Does that represent the 30 year old guy vote?
I knew I lived in a bubble since i've only lived in coastal elite cities. At the watch party at a bar in my huge coastal city, everyone cheered for every Harris thing and booed everything Trump. I know the women feel that way, but do all the men too (or are they trying to get laid?). Two blond women did come in late and cheer quietly when some Rep senator won, but not sure if those two were tourists.
had 2 data points from friends that their bucks county relatives all voted Trump, but I disregarded it. This one is hard since these friends are libertarian/center right like me. But perhaps next time giving more credence.

what else have i missed? Gotta think on this more.

Maybe I will do more small prediction market bets to hone my forecasting. Does anyone here know if this is a skill that can be honed and trained, without dedicating your entire life to it?

Context

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 29, 2024

sickamore 11mo ago

but why not assassinate in Qatar? qatar is sorta isolated in the Gulf - saudi/uae etc doesnt like qatar. Only thing i can think of that shields qatar is some nebulous relationship with USA, but even that doesnt feel very concrete

Context

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024

sickamore 8mo ago

government should incentivize social goods. which is what RDOF is about.

Context

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 30, 2024

sickamore 9mo ago

but drug prohibition in other places do quite well. Korea, China, Japan, Singapore, - in comparison US basically does not prohibit drugs at all.

Context

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 3, 2025

sickamore 5mo ago

yep agreed on this criticism. I'm dont fully understand why all this money is routed via Rockefeller Philanthropy, but doesn't seem like an open-and-shut case as DataRepublican posted (https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1886161143108149298)

Context

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

sickamore 7mo ago

holy smokes man, thanks for writing all this up. Very clearly explained here, appreciate the alpha.

I wanted to make a top post about a few topics around the election like my puzzlement with the esteem Nate Silver gets, or talking about my approach to political betting, and listing my predictions, but I guess I'm just too lazy. I logged in on Monday to do it but instead scrolled and reply guyed.

You should definitely do it, I'm sure that, like me, many people would find this stuff fascinating, and there isn't too much public info on prediction market techniques and what not (except for very rare strategy posts on Kalshi regarding e.g. the Temperature markets - which mostly boil down to "read the rules, dumbass"). Obviously most of us here don't have the same resources as that French trader who commissioned his own polls, so comparing existing/past data and over/underestimation trends is def the way to go. 'preciate it!

Context

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

sickamore 8mo ago

California has a little more than half the votes tallied right now, and the anti-crime Prop 36 is at 70% YES votes. If this holds, Prop 47 is basically repealed.

Notably, CA Gov. Newson campaigned against Prop 36, while Harris refused to give an answer on her stance when she was asked.

The Los Angeles DA George Gascon also lost re-election. He was one of the most progressive DAs and was a proponent of Prop 47 if I remember correctly. He was also DA in San Francisco before his LA stint.

Seems like a broad indictment against crime in California. Not sure how much change I expect to see in places like SF, but it seems positive imo.