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PaperclipPerfector  9mo ago (text post)   34648 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 29, 2024

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Killing of Hamas leader 'doesn't help' ceasefire talks, says Biden

Mr Biden said he was “very concerned” about rising tensions in the Middle East. "We have the basis for a ceasefire. He [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] should move on it and they [Hamas] should move on it now."

He said he had spoken to Mr Netanyahu earlier on Thursday and had promised to protect Israel "against all threats from Iran", which has vowed to retaliate. Iran is Hamas's most important backer and is an arch-foe of Israel.

Is Israel Deliberately Provoking an Escalation That Might Drag the U.S. Into the Conflict?

Israel could have killed Haniyeh anywhere in the Middle East, yet deliberately chose to do so in Iran during the inauguration. That's not daring – that's the very definition of provocative.

Israel left Iran no choice but to retaliate, the scope of which remains the big question mark. But Israel also outsourced "escalation dominance" by handing to Iran to decision over whether to escalate. That's a legitimate course of policy – except that Iran may not see it that way.

The worst case scenario for Iran is an escalation that somehow involves the Americans. Iran's prize asset, its "military nuclear threshold" status, could be undermined in such an event if the United States, even reluctantly, is dragged into a conflict and attacks the Iranians.

This is where it gets interesting. Who has no interest in such an escalation? The United States, whose makeshift Middle East policy will now have to be revisited, and Iran, which clearly prefers attrition and low intensity.

Who does have a vested interest in an expanded war? Mr. Netanyahu. Which is why the conventional wisdom in Washington over the last 36 hours is that Israel carried out the Haniyeh assassination deliberately in Iran and intentionally on that day.

Does Netanyahu actually want to drag the US into a much larger war with Iran? Or is he content to strike humiliating blows against them, safe in the knowledge that the US's aegis protects them from massive retaliation, and Iran lacks the ability to pursue more fine-grained responses. Biden certainly doesn't seem to be happy either way, as his response to a wanted terrorist leader being eliminated, in a fairly elegant and collateral-minimizing way, shows.

From the linked article

Israel could have killed Haniyeh anywhere in the Middle East, yet deliberately chose to do so in Iran during the inauguration.

Is this true? My impression was that Hamas leaders were mostly staying in Qatar, where Israel would be very unwilling to try an assassination attempt.

Does Netanyahu actually want to drag the US into a much larger war with Iran?

I've seen various takes on Twitter pointing out how much Israel has escalated recently since Netanyahu's meeting with Harris. It seems very possible he realised/had confirmed that her administration would be much less friendly than Biden's, and that the time to try and draw the US in was now.

but why not assassinate in Qatar? qatar is sorta isolated in the Gulf - saudi/uae etc doesnt like qatar. Only thing i can think of that shields qatar is some nebulous relationship with USA, but even that doesnt feel very concrete

Because Qatar is accepted by the US as a diplomatic neutral ground for peace negotiations with various unsavory factions (including Hamas, the Taliban etc) on the proviso that all sides respect that no violence actually happens there.

In other words Qatar is the Continental Hotel of the Middle East.

but why not assassinate in Qatar?

Qatar was one of the first Arab nations to start normalizing thier relations with Isreal back in the 90s. Unlike those of Iran or Syria, Qatari diplomatic opinion actually carries some whieght with the Isreali government.

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