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sickamore


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 07 00:13:50 UTC

					

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User ID: 899

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Have we had a discussion on South Africa yet?

Recently, Andre de Ruyter, the now-ex CEO of the state owned power provider ESKOM, did an interview that basically said the corruption and everything was so bad that he and ESKOM cannot do their jobs properly. He himself was a target of assassination (cyanide pill in his coffee or something?), and after the interview has been removed from his post (he put in his resignation before the interview). He has since left the country.

There are many reports that the grid can totally collapse soon, despite the "load shedding" that they have been doing. Apparently this may lead to civil war?

Unemployment is apparently 35%, clean water access and supply is apparently unstable. Crime is apparently extremely high. If you go on /r/southAfrica, there are frequent discussions of home invasion and other crimes (70 carjackings a day, 2500 home invasions a day...). One post I saw last week was a question asking "Dogs been poisoned, both dead. Typically how many days before robbery hit?"

See this recent thread for more issues: https://twitter.com/k9_reaper/status/1630436052723720193

Some blame this all on the ruling ANC party, on their policies like BBBEE (from a few years ago: https://www.revolver.news/2021/07/south-africa-riots-looting-critical-race-theory/).

In general, SA's situation is not looking good...

(can move to the Israel/Palestine thread, but thought I'd post here as it's not geopolitics)

Looks like donors of elite schools are starting to pause their donations to schools due to the Israel/Palestine situation.

Well, rather, by the reaction and statements from some students at those schools, combined with the lack of reaction/statement by the school presidents condemning the initial Hamas attack. It seems donors, like Ken Griffin, are either pressuring the school to change tact, or stopping donations altogether.

Just today, apparently [some Jewish students at Cooper Union] were blocked in a library due to a pro-Palestine/anti-Israel rally](https://twitter.com/stopantisemites/status/1717300476524322969?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ). Not sure why the library only had Jewish students (Hillel meeting?), but seems bad if true.

George Washington Uni. got pro-Hamas projections saying things like "glory to our martyrs" (!!) on school buildings (ironically with donors like "Gelman" right underneath the projections). Protests that shout "from the river to the sea" all over every elite school, from Brown to NYU to UCLA, you name it. And on and on...

Social media wasn't that developed, and I wasn't paying attention, last time the large Israel/Palestine hostage situation happened in 2014, or the situation in 2008. Was it always been like this, pro-Hamas/anti-Israel/ and I just didn't notice? Or is it noticeably larger now, more organized, more tolerated? It's not just US either, it's also in UK, it's in Berlin and Vienna and Paris. Obviously there's big protests in Jordan or whatever, as they are closer and have millions of Palestinians, so I'd expect protests there. But it almost seems kind of shocking how brazen many people are, in NYC!?

Seems like influential folks, even sjw/leftist-friendly (?) youtubers, are realizing the changing cultural winds, and perhaps political winds downstream.

The donors' using their money to cause change is not new, but seems like there is urgency from them to change some of the culture in universities. Will this actually change things, though? My bet is no, Griffin's $300mil will not change how Harvard students think and say. What do you guys think?

edit:

This was an interesting thing, that I was trying to but failing to reference/get at:

In the 1960s, the radical left and black militants engaged in terrorism and mass violence for several years. During that period, a disproportionate amount of money and leadership on the left came from Jews and Jewish organizations. Then the Panthers took the movement by storm and imposed a Third World, anti-imperialist focus on the left, which turned hard against Israel after the Six Day War in ‘67. The Panthers’ anti-Zionism bled over into plain anti-Semitism, and many disillusioned Jews began to back away from the movement. Then, in ‘69, black militants in NYC picked a fight w/the mostly Jewish NYC teachers’ union, and the virulent antisemitism that had been just beneath the surface burst out into the open. The Jewish Defense League was actually formed in the aftermath of the conflict, to protect and retaliate on behalf of Jews who were being harassed and attacked by black militants.

The loss of Jewish support was the end of the ‘60s radical left as a serious movement, and the long march on the institutions began. Now that it’s had a half decade to regroup, it’s back on the streets causing mayhem. As before, Jewish organizers and groups played a disproportionate leadership role w/BLM, campus radicals, and other militant groups, and as before, the movement has turned against Israel and Jews more generally. If the rest of the cycle repeats, turning against the Jews will mark the beginning of the end of this round of left wing madness…

Hopefully we all learn a more lasting lesson this time.

Let's talk about the Stanford Law School situation that has gone on for a few days.

A Timeline:

  • The Federalist Society invited a judge, Kyle Duncan, to speak. 70 students emailed FedSoc to cancel the event. [https://freebeacon.com/campus/dogshit-federal-judge-decries-disruption-of-his-remarks-by-stanford-law-students-and-calls-for-termination-of-the-stanford-dean-who-joined-the-protesters/]("When the Federalist Society refused to cancel, students began putting up fliers with the names and faces of everyone on the board. "You should be ashamed," the posters read.")

  • Duncan was basically shouted down during his talk. Most in attendance were protestors to his speech, with people showing up with signs like "Duncan can't find the clit" and such. They accused him for ruling on cases that were against their beliefs, for example taking the right to vote away ("The students appeared to have little familiarity with Duncan’s jurisprudence. Some accused him of suppressing the voting rights of African Americans, Duncan said—only to cite a case in which Duncan had actually dissented from the majority.")

  • Duncan asked administrators to control the situation, and a DEI Dean went up to the podium and instead of controlling the crowd, read out a statement accusing Duncan of causing harm (video)

  • Duncan was escorted out by federal marshals

  • Dean of Stanford Law School + President of Stanford issued a joint apology letter to judge Kyle Duncan, and the Dean also sent an email to alumni

  • Now, the Dean of Stanford Law School is being targeted. She teaches Constitutional Law and her classroom white board was plastered with statements that argue for their 1st amendment rights and the heckler's veto (source). Some excerpts below:

  • When Martinez’s class adjourned on Monday, the protesters, dressed in black and wearing face masks that read "counter-speech is free speech," stared silently at Martinez as she exited her first-year constitutional law class at 11:00 a.m., according to five students who witnessed the episode. The student protesters, who formed a human corridor from Martinez’s classroom to the building’s exit, comprised nearly a third of the law school, the students told the Washington Free Beacon.

  • The majority of Martinez’s class—approximately 50 students out of the 60 enrolled—participated in the protest themselves, two students in the class said. The few who didn’t join the protesters received the same stare down as their professor as they hurried through the makeshift walk of shame.

  • "They gave us weird looks if we didn’t wear black" and join the crowd, said Luke Schumacher, a first-year law student in Martinez’s class who declined to participate in the protest. "It didn’t feel like the inclusive, belonging atmosphere that the DEI office claims to be creating."

  • The Stanford National Lawyers Guild said Saturday that Martinez had thrown "capable and compassionate administrators" under the bus. The law school’s Immigration & Human Rights Law Association issued a similar declaration on Sunday, writing to its mailing list that Stanford’s apology to Duncan "has only made this situation worse." And Stanford Law School’s chapter of the American Constitution Society expressed outrage that Martinez and Tessier-Lavigne had framed Duncan "as a victim, when in fact he himself had made civil dialogue impossible."

This follows on the heals of similar kind of situations at Yale Law School (no.1 in the country, Stanford's usually no.2).

Don't have much to add here. I've seen a few student protests (but didn't go to UC Berkeley and wasn't present at any big ones). None were like this, but maybe law school is different. Also I wonder whether Stanford and Yale law schools sizes (300-500 law students, versus Harvard's ~2000 law students) means that it's easier to pressure everyone to join in on something. Being starred down by a large % of your classmates is probably not a fun experience, especially when you know most of them.

Seems like at least two guys, maybe three restraining the one dude. https://twitter.com/_barringtonii/status/1653941898023665665

Everyones only focusing on that shot with just the marine and the guy, probably taken later than the above pic

sorta related but I was just in Montreal, some obervations:

  • definitely seems like if you are a twenty something there you need to speak French. Communities / friendships seem largely segregated by francophone or anglophone groups, and there are more francophone ones

  • Downtown Montreal is full of taller buildings, but definitely seem like they stopped building after 1970s. Seemed to coincide with the first French language laws? My local friend said Montreal was the natural economic engine for Canada, not Toronto, since the former is on the coast, benefited from trade since 1600s, etc.

  • Seems like the first french language laws in 1970s are partly a reason for the switch to Toronto. Apparently those laws stipulated that companies headquartered in Montreal needed to have a CEO who has a certain leve of French skills (don’t quote me on this). Seemed to motivate companies and rich Anglos to move HQs to Toronto, spurring Toronto’s growth to now be the premier Canadian city.

  • the arguments for the laws were cultural, but seemed that people also think it was economically redistributive from the Anglophone to the Francophone. As my friend said, “yes Montreal lost companies, but it largely worker on the Quebec context, as there was really a trend that the Anglos increasingly economically dominant over Francophones here”. Not sure if that was an explicit reason for these policies, tho.

  • You mentioned the schooling language thing. Seemed like you either have to prove you already got anglo schooling or go private school to avoid French schooling. Seemed like more choice before.

  • Quebec gives free French classes to anyone, apparently. Plan to take advantage when I am between jobs if I have the living costs

It at least appears to me that Quebec has been able to solidify its status as a Francophone region. I was impressed by how French they are, despite not being part of New France for hundreds of years. Honestly maybe it was confirmation bias, but even the construction workers look French; I swear this older man looked like a second cousin of Charles De Gaul, but like, working class.

From a self preservation aspect for their Francophone culture, language, and identity, these policies all seemed to work. And Im impressed they work so well!

I’m not an expert on Louisiana, but other than their legal system, New Orleans and Louisiana in general does not seem French / Cajun to me anymore. Quebec is the largest province and most or second most populous, so LA and Quebec do not have similar situations. Nevertheless, LA’s current state seems like a possibility for Quebec had Quebec not enacted these policies (and taken the economic penalty for the cultural win. Montreal seems to have the lowest rents of the bigger Canadian cities)

Overall: impressed by the choices made there and the results. Seems like something other places that wanna strengthen their cultural identity can learn from. It would probably work if they have the will to enforce similar cultural / language rules and the unity to endure the economic costs. Maybe more impressed cuz these policies seem driven by the people, not some random Politician making choices thay the people have to endure (though that probably happened too, in the beginning)

oh and fun fact: Canada does border a tiny French territory still.

what stops someone from joining the mormon church? If you dont have tradition you can buy into some, after all converting new people is a big part of the Mormon tradition with the missions that guys go on.

Thanks for the rundown! Very informative!

The only reason I brought up the US/Russian angle (and really why I wanted to learn more) is that there's been some posts on twitter around how Victoria Nuland (USA) had visited (though I couldn't find a trace of that in 2023), and that the US Ambassador to Sudan made some statement warning against Sudan giving a red sea port to Russia (now looking for more sources, I cannot find this interview either, only quotes of it - let me know if anyone finds the original!)

So maybe it's just anti-american trolls drumming attention to some conspiracy and there's no real backing in reality. Still learned a lot from your posts and links. Thanks.

A man attracted to other men cannot become a straight man, but he can become a straight woman. Do the people articulating this view not notice that this is at least a difficult pair of propositions to adhere to?

"A man, who is born attracted to men, should be allowed to date/see/marry/sex with men" and "a man who is* born in the wrong body and should be able to transition to a women" don't seem contradictory to me, thought I do admit that they do seem in conflict.

Isn't the explanation: "both are innate, and should be allowed"? They are both a quality/innateness you're "born with" and cannot change.

If you can change your mind on these things, then they aren't innate.

Thus why detransitioners (and people who "decide" not to be gay anymore?) are seen as such traitors?

If an American is afraid that the USA (or really anywhere) is becoming a low-trust society, and want to immigrate somewhere that will maintain/be a high trust society in the future (for future kids etc), where should they go?

Assume they have a bachelors degree, enough money to live in most places for a few years without income, and willing to learn languages/assimilate into local culture. Ideally there is a path to naturalization and that it doesn't take >10 years (i.e. rules out UAE), and ideally path to citizenship is reliable (probably rules out Singapore as hearing it's hard to acquire citizenship there now).

Where would you suggest?

Twitter is an insane place right now, but it will only get worse from here. Just now, I scrolled past two gruesome videos, then saw tweets from official Israel military accounts. and then a video supposedly of someone hang gliding from Gaza into Israel?? The Ukraine war was not like this, I feel like I will be scarred by this one.

Speaking of retribution, Netanyahu’s twitter says, emphasis mine:

Since this morning, the State of Israel has been at war. Our first objective is to clear out the hostile forces that infiltrated our territory and restore the security and quiet to the communities that have been attacked.

The second objective, at the same time, is to exact an immense price from the enemy, within the Gaza Strip as well. The third objective is to reinforce other fronts so that nobody should mistakenly join this war.

We are at war. In war, one needs to be level-headed. I call on all citizens of Israel to unite in order to achieve our highest goal – victory in the war.

https://x.com/netanyahu/status/1710631847879717236?s=20

Seems like Saudi's leadership / MBS is tasking at least one religious authority (Imam? Ulema? mufti?) to tell people in Saudia to not talk about Gaza anymore (quote-tweeted video on twitter).

Quote tweeter Sam Hamdi writes:

Bin Salman tasks Saudi "scholars" to 'Islamically inform' the population that citizens should stop discussing #Gaza because "leaders know the issue better than you" and "you are not qualified and have nothing to offer", and "your analyses are burdensome". "Trust [Bin Salman]".

The Original video comes from here, with the translated comment is:

Sheikh Ali Al-Shibl, may God protect him For the Saudi people: (( You are a slug with nothing )) Just because the son of the Arabian Peninsula and the son of the Hijaz want to stand with his brothers in Gaza, this respected sheikh (( is a worthless spit )) . But the ruler (( the dashing bear )) only knows what is good and what is bad

It has a #غزة_تستغيث tag, which seems to mean "Gaza is crying out for help", which leads me to think the poster is perhaps against religious leaders prohibiting their congregations from political discourse. I cannot tell if this original poster was being sarcastic, as their follow up tweet says:

The original clip: Perhaps I have wronged the honorable Sheikh. If there is anyone who can explain to the Sheikh, he would be grateful note: Please do not insult or accuse the Sheikh

Taken together, some questions / thoughts:

  1. Most important thing: does this show MBS still wants normalization with Israel? It seems almost certain that Iran is behind Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias that are attacking US interests in Iraq, AND are/were funding Houthis to fight Saudis for all these years, it's natural that Israel and other Arab countries would informally ally against Iran.
  2. If yes, then what happened to the Saudi-Iran deal that China was supposed to have brokered?
  3. How effective is this, trying to control discourse via religion? Has MBS, or Saudi in general, tried this in the recent past? (I assume everyone's tried this 1000 years ago, but how about after the internet). Or is modern social media so recent and powerful there's no historic precedence for this?
    • I thought everyone would have to have a Chinese-like system of internet censorship and blocking/firewall to limit thought and discourse, but can religion do this effectively as an alternative?
    • is Saudi secularizing at a rate that this actually doesn't matter?
  4. Who is this guy in the video, is he important? And was the original poster being sarcastic? Any info there would be super helpful as I have no idea what the Saudi-twitterverse is like.

the holiday inn apparently housed immigrants?

seems interesting what Irish people are saying. for example UFC Champ Conor McGregor tweeting to the effect of “do something immediately”, and more PC ones saying this is alt-right

Is there a reason we haven’t seen this kind of reaction in UK or France?

Iran-backed militias keep striking US positions in Syria, Iraq, etc. By various counts up to 40-70+ times in the last 2-3 weeks. Another recently one I just saw - US denied the high casualties claimed by the possible assailants

In response, US has done a handful (3-5?) retaliatory strikes on those militias' positions. Apparently one of the strikes hit some IRGC commanders/troops. I also read that apparently Biden opted for lesser attacks, to prevent escalation.

Oh and US might unfreeze $10billion worth of funds to Iran? For some reason? Were the six billion dollars going to Iran through Qatar actually delivered, or held up?

On the Lebanese-Israel border, IDF continues to trade attacks with Hezbollah. Both sides have sustained casualties, though Hezbollah apparently has more (they publish photos of "martyrs" they died, on twitter at least).

However, it seems like the speeches by the Hezbollah leader has not been very inflammatory. Their once-expected entry into the war with Israel still hasn't come, despite these border skirmishes. Maybe the US presence in the area, with two carrier groups and other assets, is actually a real deterrent here? It definitely feels like Hezbollah has to say they are with Hamas against Israel/US, but won't actually put themselves on the line, perhaps rationally in this case. Would Hezbollah leadership be forced to do more or risk losing control of its troops? I read a theory that the Hamas operation on Oct. 7 was mostly lead by younger commanders, without the support of the higher up, older leadership. Could Hezbollah run into this situation as well?

What do you guys think the possibility of this Israel-Gaza situation exploding to include Hezbollah formally? What about US-Iran?

My take:

  • US-Iran will continue as currently, though honestly US forward positions in Eastern Syria and Iraq are not sustainable in my opinion. They should either be heavily reinforced, or withdrawn, as the bases there are mostly unable to adequately return fire or defend themselves IMO.

  • Hezbollah will probably keep doing what they are doing, unless something really breaks. Some Hamas leader just recently said that Hezbollah would enter the war with Israel if Hamas is completely destroyed, saying it's a "red line". Though I distinctly remember Hezbollah saying Israel invading Gaza was a red line as well that couldn't be crossed. But then again...

It's honestly kind of depressing how much information, proof, etc Israel/IDF provides, and still cannot win trust. Of course it doesn't help when random mid-level Israeli bureaucrats tweet random posts of unverified bs that then gets debonnnked.

Like the Shifa Hospital situation the last few days. Images and videos of IDF bringing in supplies etc for patients in the hospital: "lies, they didn't actually do this!" "just for the video/photo-op!" etc. Of course, they ARE purposeful photo-ops that are trying to counter the anti-Israeli perspective.

And then anti-Israel people will post some link PROVING that Israel "lied" in the past, but then you read the link and it is IDF claiming responsibility for some error. "This is why IDF definitely did fire rockets at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza" etc etc. And of course then pictures come out and ... onto the next story!

It's the same as how US public comms is treated. Oh US DoD denies the casualty numbers claimed by a militia that just attacked a US base? "Lies!" "This means the casualty numbers are true!" When US DoD says, in the same manner, in the same channels, that they did something that can be seen as detrimental, like say they suffered some injuries, like US base got attacked - then what US is saying is of course true.

Everyone here probably knows this and has seen it play out. I'm just a little, idk, depressed and ranty about this.

(and I'm not ruling out that Israel does / can/ has lied about military actions, and god knows IDF has done their share of morally bad things in the past. But there just seems to be nothing israel can do to win over trust. But such is the tiktok PR battle we find ourselves in today.)

((IMO: US, Israel, and any faction that finds itself in a conflict and viewed as the more powerful "oppressor", should just keep silent and never say anything. Did Saudi announce things when fighting Houthis in Yemen? Or Assad when killing hundreds of thousands of people? I am no)

thanks for sharing.

Do you think this is a class thing? i.e. the BW that go to college and get white collar jobs vs BW who never leave their community? I assume BM date outside their race at higher % for higher income etc as well.

Now that I write it out, I think probably most people in all races have some positive correlation between higher income and higher multicultural rates in today’s america

Apparently fire arms instructor, Army reserve, just recently spent 2 weeks mental institution? https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1717374410795934053

If true, this guy reported those voices, got briefly institutionalized, and then... what happened? Stopped taking meds (if he got them), and then shot up three+ places?

To be fair he may have been a lot better in his schooling days. I played for more than a decade growing up and havent touch a piano regularly for years. If i were to play something I would actually choose that exact song and id probably play at his level in the video at best

yes, not denying that. But those are less shocking than naked dead women being paraded around and spat on

Ulbricht got his sentence because he refused a deal that would likely have seen him out in fewer than 20 years, possibly even in 10, so they made an example of him.

I hate how plea deals work. Do British, Canadian, or other European systems have this many plea deals involved?

This malay-chinese divide matches my experience in Indonesia and other places. Less pronounced in Thailand though - I assume due to Thailand having fewer, if any, Muslims (buddhism is the overwhelming majority I think?). But for Indo, the rich non-Chinese were definitely more promiscuous than the non-rich lower classes. Is this not he case in Malaysia?

For Pakistan, there is similarly a 3-tier system you pointed out. Maybe these same systems exist in most Muslim countries, unless there is a significant minority that adds nuance?

I guess we shall see how China deals with more unrest. The surveillance aspect already happens in most western countries anyway, tho I assume China acts on it more (see the aftermath of the recent protests in china - police searching people’s phones for western apps and pictures/videos etc, or Chinese cops using relatives still in china to force ppl in australia to delete tweets etc). AI will be insane in china in the near future. I mean they can already ID you based on your walking gait…

Is there any truth to this remineralization stuff, like this thread: https://twitter.com/Helios_Movement/status/1585623324482506752 ?

Seems to say:

  • avoid Phytic acid and oxalic acid - aka avoid "Mainly vegetables that are not cooked in animal fats, grains that are not sprouted and no nuts or seeds (and obviously no nut butter or nut “milks”"

  • avoid Sodium fluoride - filter drinking water if fluoride is added, use toothpaste without fluoride, etc

  • avoid phosphoric acid - cokes, etc

  • "Avoid the consumption of too many acidic foods and beverages that are not naturally carbonated."

  • eat things high in calcium - "Foods high in calcium both neutralize the acid that harms enamel and can help add minerals back into tooth surfaces."

Any truth to this theory at all? Obviously cokes probably aren't good for you, but avoiding veggies not cooked in animal fats? Avoid nuts (I thought one of the reasons why we all need braces nowadays is because the foods we eat are too soft, which hard nuts would counteract).

Also fluoride was added to the water for teeth health, but actually works against teeth health? is that possible?

Anyon have the link to that long article on how USA's healthcare spending is actually in line with the country's discretionary spending?

I vaguely remember this article from a blog with a name like "statistical social econ" or "analytical social sciences" or something similar. It says that actually, the US's healthcare expenditure is in line with the discretionary spending of its citizens. My vague memory of it is that basically, healthcare, at a certain point, becomes a "want" and not a "need". Though US does spend more per capita on healthcare vs other developed countries, it also spends a lot more than those countries in general - or so that's what I remember.

Does anyone know what I'm talking about and can share the link? I wanted to find it but google hasn't proved as useful so I'm turning to all the smarties on TheMotte.

Thanks in advance!

In the old SAT, when it had a Writing section and was based out of 2400, had an essay. However, it was very game-able with a simple structure. You just had to do a simple 5 paragraph thing where you introduce the topic, give 2-3 examples, and clearly state a conclusion. Using some fancy SAT words helps. My friend group joked that you could always use Nazis to support your topic ("book burning is bad, when the nazis burned...")

Denmark was the first one I thought of, and to a lesser extent Norway and Finland (Sweden has too much immigration imo)

But yes between language, the normal stand-off-ness from Scandinavians, it does seem like you gotta have an "in" to make friends/have a community