someone_from_poland
themotte.org was entertaining for a while but for me it just proves that contrarianism for sake of contrarianism is a bad strategy.
Contrarian is far more likely to be wrong than correct or useful.
User ID: 2097
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
If we give Ukraine everything and they lose, that’s a serious blow to the credibility of NATO as a protector of the current international order.
Well, for now we are far far far away from giving Ukraine everything.
when they could have negotiated a similiar diplomatic postion prior to the invasion with far less cost to everyone.
That the war is an idiotic idea was obvious from start. Sadly, not to Putin.
And when one side is ready to wage war of conquest, than the other can choose war or surrender and occupation - but not peace.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
GIVEN PUTIN DIES in the next 5 months: 80% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
that seems quite high
unless you mean that 20% if for every single Russian soldier leaving Ukraine and avoiding even border accidents
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
the US military is actually now talking about how they're going to have to pull back out of the Ukraine
[citation needed]
Which US military would be even pulling out of Ukraine?
Only ukrainerussiareport will show the true Ukrainian military hardware losses which is necessary to have predictive power and when/if its defense capabilities will break down.
Individual videos are generally utterly useless for that. Or multiple individual videos without broader analysis. Except cases of extremely rare kills. For example Russia unable to show single attack on HIMARS is a good indicator of 100% survival rate. Or video of Moscov being towed to the port after sustaining damage in storm sinking after Ukrainian rocket attack. War is large and looking at biased sample of 100 videos showing attacks on something is not giving significant predictive power about overall defense capabilities of either side.
Only systematic collection of data on larger scale is useful for predictive power as far as tanks/IFV go. Ukrainian official data is propaganda a bit based on facts. Russian official data is useful only as jokes. Oryx is not ideal but at least reality adjacent. Other sources are not available for randos discussing on the internet.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Russia is not a joke. People kept thinking that Russian supersoldiers are 3m high supergiants. Now some think that they are stunted 1.2m high mentally-disabled midgets.
Both are wrong, Russia continues to have more soldiers and overall more weaponry. If they manage to collect themselves - then they can attrit Ukrainian army at about 1:1 ration which is highly favorable to them.
Obviously, no war at all would be even better but...
And some correction was needed, but beware of overcorrection.
People think that if the U.S was invading Ukraine they could do it in a matter of months, spoiler: they can't.
Well, if USA would invade Ukraine then large part of population would be really happy and even larger part would immediately start to think how to profit from that.
Even if we assume that Ukrainian military fights as much as it can, then we get Gulf War rerun.
the number of americans willing to die is a scarcer resources than in authoritarian countries.
Still larger enough to maintain military.
Anti air such as S-300s have broken the economics and impact of aviation.
not sure
Secondly ATGMs have broken the economics of tanks.
Definitely not true.
This is it, we can no longer make disruptive military attacks
And that is why Kharkiv offensive has not happened.
bio-weapons
that is a dead end as far as military use goes, mentioning them seriously is really weird here
The only remaining "hopes" for military tactical disruption
Or proper use of existing tools. Assuming no nukes, USA would be able to simultaneously take Kyiv and Moscow and all major cities in both Ukraine and European part of Russia. Even if Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Finland and Baltic states would be hostile to USA.
If USA army would deploy in Ukraine (and gremlins would steal Russian nukes) then the war would be over within months - and that is only because Crimea would be really annoying to retake without heavy casualties.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Oryx is deemed very unreliable by the pro-Russian side
I wonder what this people think about Russian MoD claims :)
Has Big Sergei made fun also of all Russian MoD claims that were equally suspect as Oryx listings?
And is rejection of Oryx based "he refused to list 'destroyed' HIMARS" or anything more serious.
as people took a look at his claims and found he'd verify a loss based on a photo that was e.g. not even from the war,etc..
Is it just me or
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is displayed?
I seem to remember that ArmchairW was definitely not some epitome of high quality.
And overall I expect that in thousands of cases some sneaked through, Oryx is quite good but not some god. Definitely at least some checking is done, many many claims were rejected as invalid or pointed out to be duplicates.
I would care more about response to discovered problems and is it something systematic.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Still, USA in Serbia got quite cocky (flying the same routes over and over again) and F-35 may have some new tricks as stealth is not some boolean yes/no switch.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
today - Georgia, tomorrow - Ukraine, the day after tomorrow – the Baltic States, then, perhaps, it will be my own country, Poland'
President of Poland in 2008, in Georgia, Tbilisi
(if anyone is confused why support to Ukraine is over 1% of GDP of Estonia and Poland gave Ukraine 230+ tanks and other equipment)
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Worth noting is that in both cases unknown part exists only on paper. Many of this 12 500 tanks were stored in Siberian mud, under open air, without maintenance, for decades. For obvious reasons that is not good for tanks. Ukrainian military got better, but was extremely corrupt and Russian military corruption was not much better and has not really improved - so many of this tanks were sold for scrap or only rusting shell remains as someone has stolen everything steleable.
No idea how many of this tanks can be refurbished into something mowing under own power. Maybe half?
Disparity is a bit lowered by fact that for Russia option "we lost every single tank in this war" is worse than for Ukraine.
Note also that some tanks were delivered - for example Poland send 230+ tanks (so far the largest delivery), more may come while Russia has no real resupply options.
On the other hand, Russian factories are producing new ones - though hopefully war will not go for so long that it will change total numbers much.
And yes, overall that is really really bad for Ukraine. But not by multiple order of magnitudes, unless taking base 2 or other trickery.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Yeah, I meant Shahed-136. Probably should refer to it as a drone like everyone else rather than argue that it is closer to shitty cruise missile than shitty drone.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
who have also accused Orbán of wanting a piece of Ukraine..
In case of Hungary it may be not utterly baseless due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zakarpattia_Oblast and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarians_in_Ukraine
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
I do not follow Russian sources.
Maybe in this case they has fallen for some absurd claims? Or Korwin is trying to find new topic for hot takes?
Either way as someone from Poland this has basically zero support and is about as likely as annexing Kaliningrad.
I am curious what is your source of that claims.
but to dismiss everything if that turned out to be unsubstantiated is a fallacy.
Definitely, but confidence in such source should be reduced.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
I bet that they post something of 50 Stalin variety complaining about Trump not being Trumpish enough.
peak maximally useful military machines are generally from the 70s + a few cheap modernisations on top such as a 1 dollar gps/glonas chip
Are you actually serious about this? Or is it some joke? Or is it "effectiveness over resources, assuming that soldiers and their training costs nothing"?
Are you claiming that it applies to such types of military machines as planes, satellites, night vision, AWACS, drones and communication gear?
And AT, ASAT, PGM etc?
For what your claim applies? Definitely not for static machine guns (here peak is earlier), maybe for standard issue riffles. Anything else?
What kind of inept denial is this? You seriously believe Russia will run out of tanks before Ukraine? You are wrong by multiple order of magnitudes.
Multiple? Can you clarify what you think is the difference of tank count between Ukraine and Russia?
Are you aware of what "order of magnitude" typically means?
Are you claiming that Russia has 100x or 1000x more tanks thank Ukraine? Because that is a quite brave claim.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
However Ukraine has lost all its technological glory since the population will to stay in the USSR has not been respected https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum
Well, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum had 92% of support after it become obvious to everyone that USSR imploded.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
It is a sufficient explanation, not the only explanation.
I don't think anyone has had a spotless record in this war.
OK, what Big Sergei predicted? Can you link to some brilliant analysis that was validated by now?
I looked at their Twitter account and it is as bad as you would expect from "pro Russian Twitter account making bold predictions".
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
for example there's talk of Poland absorbing part of the western region of Ukraine
That is coming only from blatant pro Russia-propaganda. Notably, in Poland it is treated less seriously than proposals to take Moscow by land invasion. And the second one is proposed by narrow group of edgy teenagers.
If you treated either of this "talks" seriously then you need to reevaluate sources of your info.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
And for example in https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1616478656863571969 this twitter poster demonstrates being unable to distinguish between "losses and captures confirmed by reliable public info" and "actual losses and captures".
And fails to understand that Russia has more weaponry than Ukraine.
Or is deliberately lying and misleading pro-Russian troll. Or both. Take your pick.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
The TL;DR is that Ukraine has burned through multiple iterations of armaments and is now reduced to begging for active NATO matériel,
wat?
First of all, they were asking for WW III at the start (AKA no fly zone, AKA "close the sky").
Asking for NATO matériel is also not a new thing. They were asking for modern tanks and planes from start.
And obviously, in large scale war you will burn though armaments. Russia also did this. Ukraine is trying to get supplies from NATO, gets ammo from weird African countries and diesel and shells from Bulgaria. Russia get cruise missiles from Iran and supplies from North Korea.
No idea why either is surprising to anyone, even pro-Russia twitter trolls like Big Serge. It just proves that leadership on either side is not a total idiot and war in ongoing on a large scale.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
Taking something massively damaging on premise "noone will actually enforce this agreement" is a terrible idea.
I am old enough to remember multiple laws and deals going from "that will be not actually enforced as written, don't be silly" to an actual enforcement.
someone_from_poland
1yr ago
is it true that they've largely restrained from using air power? If so their aircraft resources would seem to be in good shape.
Given that they restrained from it due to being shot down when they tried to use it, I am not sure. On the other hand not sure whether even F-35 would survive for long in area so covered with AA.
[citation needed]
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