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due to lack of interest the human race has been cancelled

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joined 2024 February 19 23:50:04 UTC

It's TZD


				

User ID: 2892

spring

due to lack of interest the human race has been cancelled

0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2024 February 19 23:50:04 UTC

					

It's TZD


					

User ID: 2892

but getting around the world is so insanely slow that most of your playtime is consumed by mindlessly holding W

Now here's the punchline. Skies is faster than it's predecessor Sunless Seas. I'd still recommend it if you like Skies, just download a mod that increases the game speed if you value your time.

I've definitely seen one episode that's in the same ballpark. I found it didn't scratch the itch partly due to tone, partly because the length of the episodes means the world can't be fleshed out like a feature length can.

I want a modern Idiocracy. Just with the premise changed slightly so that everything runs on engagement optimisation logic. Consumers can only purchase things via lootbox, everyone is sponsored (usually by NordVPN or Raids: Shadow Legends). School signage simply reads NOOB :( | PRO :). Road layouts are constantly being A/B tested. There is no money, only views and clicks. Edifices are haunted by Mr Beast's ghoulish face.

That is unfortunate, I'll keep your comment in mind.

I got House of Leaves from the library a couple of weeks ago, which at my current rate I might be done with by Christmas. I can't think of any book that has killed my initial enthusiasm so thoroughly. The premise is quite compelling: our protagonist discovers among the belongings of a recently deceased eccentric man a strange manuscript, about a series of events at a spooky house. The house isn't spooky because there's a ghost in the attic, but because it has non-euclidean properties. The manuscript is the meat novel, with a B-side story running through the extremely lengthy footnotes. The footnotes frequently disrupt the flow whilst being insubstantial. The novel itself digresses with lengthy tangents that at one point the footnotes meta-suggest aren't actually even worth reading. I'm hoping this is just a brief slump, because I am not going to make it otherwise.

I also started reading Etidorhpa. I am a sucker for strange journeys, so despite generally bouncing off this era of proto-scifi I am giving it a shot.

Early 2024 was one of the worst periods for Ukraine of the war so far (shell hunger, no recent wins, etc). For both domestic and international backers a high profile success provides hope and assurance that they are still in the fight. It's hard to understate the importance of troop morale. In the international context, backers are more likely to continue to provide support if Ukraine demonstrates that they can achieve success on the battlefield.

The message to ordinary Russians, particularly those in Kursk and adjacent, is that the war can come for them too. It also makes Putin and co. look less secure and in control. It's probably not going to break the camel's back, but if you're in the business of camel-back breaking you take the straws you can get.

In terms of military effect: Russia has been on the offensive for a while now, and there's reason to believe it will culminate in the near future. By conducting the incursion they create a dilemma: stay on the offensive even longer to try and retake the territory, or take the operational pause as planned and give Ukraine the opportunity to dig in. Neither option is particularly appealing.

I've read an abridged translation of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, as well as a fair chunk of the Moss Roberts non-abridged translation. If you have any interest in the period at all I would give it a shot. The sheer number of adaptions it has received is testament enough to its enduring appeal. It's a historical epic so the main thing you should be concerned about is the litany of names and places.

I think of this particular passage quite often

Xuande and his companion Sun Qian seek shelter in a hunter’s home. The hunter is called Liu An, and he immediately offers to go and hunt for fresh meat for them to eat. To his distress, he cannot find any game. Desperate to keep his word, he kills his wife and serves up flesh from her body. When Xuande asks what meat they are eating, Liu An replies, ‘Wolf.’ It is only as they depart the next day that the two companions see the dead body of a young woman in the kitchen. The flesh from her arms has been cut away. This extraordinary action draws tears from Xuande when he realizes to what lengths Liu An has gone to keep his promise.

A little maneuver warfare, as a treat.

~72 hours ago Ukraine launched an incursion into Kursk oblast, and have made it to the town of Sudzha, 10 km from the border. At least two brigades have been committed. Some air defence has also been active in the region, making it challenging for the VKS to operate. It's too early judge what the goal is, and officials have yet to comment. The response from Russian officials won't shock anyone.

Some notable features:

  • Surprise! In the last year plus of fighting both Ukraine and Russia have opted for more dispersed formations, as large masses of men and metal tend to get spotted and shelled pretty quickly. The ubiquity of drone+satellite intel meant that either side getting caught flat footed on the frontline was not on many bingo cards.

  • Despite the manpower disadvantage and shortages Ukraine is still willing to commit men to riskier operations like this.

  • The tempo of Russian assaults in Donbas remains unchanged, for now.

Some thoughts:

With the middle east stealing all the oxygen in the international news room Ukraine has been out of the new cycle for awhile. It's been even longer since it's had a high profile win. So a strong motivator for Ukrainian strategists is likely to be to get some positive press and a morale boost.

Life or deathpromotion for Gerasimov? Russia probably shouldn't haven't been caught off guard. I find it increasingly likely that like Shoigu before him, Gerasimov will be promoted into a position where he remains close to Putin, but his incompetency can do the least harm. And someone less-loyal-but-more-competent will be found to fill his shoes.

I'm most of the way through Seeing like a State. The book is undoubtedly fascinating, although I found it has more information about indigenous African agricultural practices than I care for. I wish more focus had been put upon the state's and intelligentsia's response to failures of central planning. It is mentioned that in many cases the authorities tended to quietly accept the necessary on-ground deviations to make the centrally planned systems work. Some self-reflection from central planners would have been a welcome addition. Furthermore it seems like the received wisdom now is that when you're planning anything you make sure to consult with stakeholders, so one wonders how we reached this point.

I spent a fair bit of time in groups ostensibly proximal to the horse show, and never understood the appeal either. Despite absorbing large chunks of the fandom osmotically. Once I started directly interacting with people that had been into it (thanks, VRChat) did I start to see it as part of a broader constellation of "moe shit." If someone was into K-On!, Azumanga Daioh or Dragon Maid, there was a much higher than average chance they had also been into MLP at some point. I don't get moe either. The only useful observation I can provide is that it seems like you either get it, or you don't.

To have a volunteer for a foreign army as the Vice President

He did volunteer work at an Israeli base as part of a broader school program. He did not, as your wording suggests, join the IDF.

Was this only through the API? I'd be interested to see regular Claude's freakout

I'm not expecting F-16s to change a whole lot, but longer range munitions like AMRAAMs should at very least prove useful for intercepting cruise missiles, which improves their air defence picture as a whole. I mention them because they are a recent, high profile, example of the overall trend thus far.

Sea drones don't need to be able to 'seriously contest' the black sea fleet to be useful strategically. They make it harder for ships to resupply Crimea, force the black sea fleet to operate further away from Ukraine's coast and have likely been critical in preventing the fleet from blockading shipments of grain.

They've had much more materiel throughout the whole war, including artillery.

Something that I tried to stress in my previous comment was that this advantage is a one-time bonus that is running its course.

It's not hard, you get on the phone with Putin, you stop the war with a phone call, this is literally how that works.

A phone call, of course, why didn't they think of that. Oh wait they did think of that, Russia invaded regardless. And then Lavrov gets snippy when the recorded call was released, because it clarifies just how disinterested in negotiation Putin was at the time.

Regardless if a call is made or not, I fully expect that given a second Trump administration we will immediately see the Kremlin bleating the need for a ceasefire. Russia's offensive strategy since Ukraine's culminated seems to be been to try and claw as much territory as possible, no matter the cost, on the gamble that a second Trump administration can bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. Russia wouldn't be seeking a ceasefire for lasting peace, but to give it time to lick its wounds.

"No matter the cost" is somewhat hyperbolic so I'll render it in clearer detail. US DOD estimates 350,000 killed or wounded between Feb 22 and June 24, estimates vary but the US is on the more conservative end. This might not look so bad from a glance at the map, after all Russia would end the war with a decent chunk of additional territory, but it made most of those gains in the opening stages and paid most of the cost in marginal gains. More pressing for Russia, most of its prodigious inheritance of Soviet equipment is running dry, which is manifesting itself in the repeated appearance of motorcycles in offensive action. Although if Russia finds itself on the defensive again, it will be the lack of artillery that will be most pressing. Russia can replace some lost equipment, but nowhere near enough to meet current consumption rates. The bottom line here is that Russia's warfighting potential has been trending downward since the beginning of the invasion and is only going to get worse in the near time.

On the other side Ukraine's warfighting potential has trended upward since '22. Over time its backers have been more willing to ship more and better materiel, and lift previous restrictions on how certain systems are used. This week the first transfer of F-16 should finally be completed, which is expected to improve Ukraine's situation re: glide bombs and cruise missiles. Ukraine has also made Crimea extremely costly for Russia to hold, and an abandonment by Russia (de facto or official) would be a huge political win for Ukraine, this is why Ukraine has invested so many of its highest quality and scarcest assets in making the peninsula untenable. A ceasefire would give Russia breathing room to undo much of the damage Ukraine has inflicted.

With this in mind what can the US do to bring Ukraine to the table? The naive answer is to simply cut off aid. Ukraine already experienced some very tough months without US aid, and while they were amongst the most difficult of the war and resulted in more territory lost than in the months with, there was no indication that the materiel shortage risked causing a total collapse. Judging the effect of a further extended period without US aid is anyone's game. Some things to consider are that Russia's fighting power declining means the loss of US aid hurts less over time. The European states also get a say. I expect that if a US administration were to cut off Ukraine entirely they would take measures to rebalance back in Ukraine's favour again. I think this is the scenario in which we are most likely to see European soldiers in Ukraine, in some fighting capacity. However more likely is the Europeans and other foreign partners would accelerate their existing efforts.

tldr: a Trump administration likely won't want to offer Ukraine any real carrots, and it's one good stick has clear limitations and drawbacks.

OpenAI were recommending phasing out voice auth back in March, passably mimicking voices is now extremely accessible. Current TTS can't replicate more subtle mannerisms and tics, but human mimicry and speech-to-speech gets you most of the way there.

To really salt this fine broth of a comment, it needs to be read by Dagoth-Ur.

character.ai has a pretty notable userbase if its subreddit subscriber count is any indication. I think Zvi might have had a more objective stat in a recent newsletter. I expect AI RP, much like regular RP, is just something you're not going to hear about if you're not already in certain circles. As someone very much outside of the circle my only exposure to the subculture is the occasional peek into the chatbot threads on /g/.

A sudden surge in personnel could cause exactly the kind of organisational chaos that allows for gaps in oversight, especially when multiple organisations are involved.

Can't speak for /tv/ but most boards I browse tend to be moderately much more tightly for off-topic content now than they were 5 years ago. I find the mods over-zealous, but prefer it to every board degenerating into some different flavour of /b/.

As someone that only started interacting with the rat-sphere and adjacent parts somewhat recently, I appreciate this window into history. Great work.

How often do you see your co-worker tackling problems beyond their profession? In my experience raw intelligence and domain expertise can very easily give the impression of a deep and profound wisdom that simply isn't there. Do not be too surprised if one day you see them out of their element and the illusion shatters.

I didn't play much Starfield, but i did complete the SecurityVPiracy questline and it reminded me strongly of the Skyrim Thieves Guild questline, in how little of the plot actually makes sense. I have mercifully forgotten most of it at this point, but my overall impression was that it was deserving of the kind of breakdown that the late Shamus Young did for the aforementioned Thieves Guild quests. That said it does at least have one decent (by the game's abysmally low standards) dungeon on a lost, derelict ship.

Whilst this is equal parts sad, tragic and horrifying, the prevailing thought in my mind is that this is excellent material for a black comedy.

Today no journalist beside Tucker would ever interview a Russian.

Requests have been made for interviews with Putin. The BBC still has Steve Rosenberg in Russia and I feel safe assuming there are other western journalists, some of whom interview Russians.