sulla
3mo ago
No, it is not a fundamental aspect of science. The idea of the null hypothesis is derived from statistical hypothesis testing, which wasn't even popularized until the mid 20th century. The idea that it is "fundamental to science" is clearly refuted by the history of science, which proceeded rapidly without it.
There is a practical matter, which is that a scientific community does not have the capacity to take every claim that passes through seriously. Thus, there is an initial burden of evidence to show your claim should be considered seriously. But is no different than in the court system that the initial burden is on the person filing the lawsuit. While reasonable, it is not a fundamental law of the universe. Above all, it does not constitute "evidence."
sulla
5mo ago
Personally, I view SJW’s as defectors in a massive prisoner’s dilemma. Conservatives are those who want to punish defectors. But where do you go as a conservative once the defectors have won?
It’s pretty obvious. You defect. And you probably defect worse than the SJW’s, because you are not bound by their strange morality. What will this look like?
Marriage will mostly end as a concept. Women will not have fun in their 20’s and then marry a beta in their 30’s. The betas will be shamed out of existence. Women will either be passed around for their entire lives or settle as part of a harem. Polygamy, the natural mating equilibrium of humanity, will reassert itself.
The economy will shrivel, under nominal socialism or not. It will not be completely obvious, things just won’t get done. Your packages will be delivered to the wrong address. Stores will have random shortages. Software won’t work. Rent will be even more unaffordable. You won’t be able to get healthcare because the doctor-patient ratio is out of whack. Yet they will refuse to train more doctors.
War is certainly on the table. We can already see how militant SJWs are towards Russia and Israel. SJWs are a globalist ideology. All humans are under their sovereignty. And many are willing to prove their loyalty by fighting and dying.
The future is sealed. We have chosen our fate and now must live it. The only way the future may be averted is through a deus ex machina. The impact of AI cannot be predicted, other than to say that those who control access to and direct powerful AI’s will inherit the world for eternity, or until humans are deposed or extinct.
sulla
7mo ago
If the native tribes of North America were regularly launching missiles from their reservations, we’d probably have a very similar response.
"We" did have a similar response. Many colonists considered the Native Americans to be so barbaric that they "forfeited all claim to the rights of humanity" and that "their total extirpation" would be "scarce sufficient attonement" [1].
sulla
10mo ago
NATO doesn't want it (apart from hardliners from Estonia, or wherever). Why is it gets repeated?
I'm not going to put in the effort to convince you, but it is my view that they have been pretty clear about this. Sure, NATO will never have a press release that says "DEATH TO PUTIN" but their actions and their propaganda has made the intent clear to me and many others. I am not intending to persuade you, but you merely contradicting me is not going to persuade anybody either.
This simplistic thinking lead to wide assumption about Kyiv falling in first days, or Donbass army being surrounded etc.
I predicted day 1 that Russia was not going to take Kiev any time soon. Just because you fell for it does not mean that everybody did.
sulla
10mo ago
The people saying that are idiots. Not only do they have zero evidence, it doesn't make any sense. The "accounting error" was not a pile of cash or a number in a bank account. It's games with the valuation of equipment transfers.
It's somewhat besides the point. It was probably not a $6.2 billion ACH transfer. The point is that "aid" being given to Ukraine is not being tracked particularly carefully and bribery of Russian officials is hardly out of the question.
sulla
10mo ago
I appreciate the concrete prediction, but I find the idea that Russia was will due to manpower and production advantages dubious at best.
Leaving aside the former, in the latter regime they're not just competing against Ukraine's anemic MIC, but the largesse of NATO as a whole. Even breadcrumbs dropped from the whiskers of Uncle Sam hit like MOABs.
Russia has a population of around 150 mil while Ukraine's population is around 40 mil. Russia simply has much deeper reserves to pull from. It is true that NATO is committing some production capacity to the Ukraine war, but it is still a fraction of what Russia is willing to commit. The Russian regime will fight the war of attrition until the regime collapse.
I see the most likely outcome becoming a stalemate and white peace, or withdrawal after an internal collapse of Russia, most likely the former. What I don't see are decisive Ukrainian or Russian victories.
If Russia is able to consolidate on its territorial gains, this is decisively a win for Russia. It is not the total victory that they originally hoped for, but it is still a clear win based on the instigating causes of the war.
I'm also highly leery of claims of NATO being able to subvert the Russian military hierarchy to that degree. If that was the case, they'd be able to outright buy out most of Russian leadership. Russia might be corrupt, but I don't think it's that corrupt.
A lot of my favorite anon Twitter accounts said that the rebellion was overblown from the beginning and was a nothingburger. But still, it went farther than most people would have thought possible the day before. Given that NATO's win condition is regime change in Russia, the reason for suspicion is obvious.
sulla
10mo ago
It sounds like you have been absorbing the narrative instead of looking at the concrete facts. In the big picture, nothing has changed. Russia has superior manpower and production. In a war of attrition Russia will eventually win unless the government collapses.
This has been the strategy from the start. Russia wants to bleed out Ukraine, NATO wants regime change in Russia. It stands to reason that this coup attempt was in some capacity supported by NATO. If I had to guess, Prig was fed bad intel by NATO spies in the MoD. Some say the mysterious $6.2 billion accounting error was paid to Prig. We may never know. My prediction is that Prig lives for at least a few years.
It's one critical item on the causal chain in most events, but it's an effect as much as it is a cause. For example, if your economy collapses and you are dependent on foreign oil, you probably won't have enough money or resources to buy enough foreign oil. This will cause problems, but the lack of oil was not the precipitating cause.
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