tikimixologist
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User ID: 257
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I'm a reasonably good looking guy and I've told assorted leftist chicks my views pretty early. They seemed confused (I don't drive a pickup truck or anything they associated with bad trump voters) but it didn't stop most of them from banging me.
The trick is to not act like Ben Shapiro. The most I ever did was troll them for entertainment, e.g. "we should build a wall and make Brooklyn great again, keep the migrants seeking a better life out" in response to a comment about keeping out gentrifiers.
The issue here isn't the government. It's running a business with $millions in cash but not having a person familiar with basic corporate finance to help them manage it, as well as not spending a bit of time on investopedia to learn it themselves.
Banks fail. The government has rules in place as to what happens when they do, they require banks to disclose these rules (e.g. FDIC insured up to $250k) and these rules are enforced. Is it your belief that SVB stopped disclosing FDIC insurance limits? SVB is only minimally a story of government being useless/corrupt - at least, it wasn't a story about govt corruption until Yellen/Biden decided to take money from workers and give it (indirectly) to wealthy venture capitalists.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I guess deporting people on the theory that maybe they are carrying scary exotic diseases is only racist when non-wealthy people do it.
Anyway, I'm pretty sure MV has the resources to hire...1 spanish speaking Texas doctor for 4 days (assuming 30 minutes/exam x 8 hour days x 4 days = 64 exams > 50 people).
tikimixologist
10mo ago
John Grisham, the author of the book, is from Arkansas and Mississippi. He's not a Hollywood liberal.
That said, the description of the movie does sound like a Hollywood liberal adapted the book.
tikimixologist
11mo ago
For you, sure. But it might not be for others - such as me - since among other things, I don't think I'm the same race as you.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Everything that the doomers claim AI would do assumes a biological utility function, such as maximizing growth, reproduction, and fitness. It's very anthropomorphizing in the same way pop culture depictions of aliens just happen to be bipeds with two eyes and ears and a nose, and not a cloud of gas or whatever.
They do not assume this at all. You clearly haven't actually read about instrumental convergence which is a conclusion about how the world works and not an assumption.
But this goes contra to my understanding of what neural networks are, namely just function approximations by and large.
Did your understanding generate a track record of correct predictions about recent AI developments? The statement that "it's crazy that..." suggests you did not.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
In his statement he said he and she were doing some weird full-disclosure-of-everything kinda social experiment, with both parties explicit consent. But now, retroactively, it's decided there's some power dynamic caused by him being involved in a community she's also involved in that makes this bad.
I would assume Keerthana Gopalakrishnan, plus probably others with mainstream views/ordinary philanthropy grifters who are backing her. There's speculation it's a group of people out of Oxford.
Chronologically, the first thing that happened was her making a post on eaforums that ended with a bunch of demands that EA change to make her happy. She admitted that she knew it wasn't up to the normal epistemic standards of EA:
Also, the post is not optimized for analytical/argumentative quality. My only goal is to speak my mind
After a bit of entirely polite pushback she demanded the post be taken down and went to the media.
https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/NacFjEJGoFFWRqsc8/women-and-effective-altruism
(Or maybe she had gone to the media prior and the reporter suggested a badly received post on the forums would look good in the story. Keerthana does seem to be struggling pretty hard to interpret the post as badly received in spite of half the responses being "you're so brave".)
Another question arises: why does she even want to be part of EA? She clearly does not align at all with EA epistemics or values:
For a community that is so alarmist for 5 or 1 or 0.1 percentage of X-risk from AI, giving a wide berth for sexual harassment is utterly hypocritical.
The most obvious answer is that she simply viewed EA as a place she could effectively grift, probably by subverting it with mainstream memes and turning the eye of Sauron on it.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Well my opinion is irrelevant. The poor people who are refusing to look for work are the ones deciding that problems continuing is better than the remedy. The folks refusing to leave Flint for San Antonio (or other functional city) are similarly the ones deciding they want the problem to continue.
Around 9 minutes in: https://www.projectveritas.com/video/npr-muslim-brotherhood-investigation-part-i/
The point Veritas is conveying with this part of the video is not at all that NPR will shade their coverage - that's something your video is claiming via a deceptive edit. The actual point Veritas is trying to make is very clear since they print it at the top of the screen in big capital letters:
Begin my transcript of the Veritas video itself:
Sharia guy: "I'm not too upset about maybe a little bit less Jew influence of money into NPR. The Zionist coverage is quite substantial elsewhere"
NPR guy: "I don't actually find it at NPR."
Sharia guy: "What, exactly?"
NPR guy: "The zionist or pro-Israel even among funders. No. I mean it's there in those who own newspapers obviously but no one owns NPR. I don't find it."
Paraphrased capital letters above caption, i.e. what Veritas wants you to notice: "JEWS OWN THE NEWSPAPERS OBVIOUSLY"
Sharia guy: "I just think what Israel does I don't think can be excused, frequently, so I'm glad to hear this."
NPR guy: "Even one of our biggest funders who you'll hear on air, the American Jewish World Service, may not agree with us. I visited with them recently. They may not agree with what we put on the air but they find us important to them. And sometimes it's not easy to hear what we have to say and what our reporters think, but they still think NPR is important to support. Right because I think they are really looking for a fair point of view and many Jewish organizations are not."
Paraphrased capital letters: "MANY JEWISH ORGS NOT LOOKING FOR A FAIR POINT OF VIEW"
Your anti-Veritas video edited that part out.
NPR guy: "Frankly, I'm sure there are Muslim organizations that are not looking for a fair point of view. They're looking for a very particular point of view and that's fine." (I wonder - is he about to draw a parallel to the thing he said a few seconds ago?)
Muslim guy interrupting: "We're not one of them."
NPR exec: "I'm gathering that you're not, actually."
The paraphrased capital letters clearly indicate what Veritas wants you to take away: NPR guy will say antisemitic things for the chance at a donation, but they won't bias their coverage for donations from Jews or <didn't get to finish that thought because this potential donation doesn't want biased coverage>.
And if you watch the full video you get the broader point being made: NPR guy hates the tea party and white Republicans, but he's totally cool with Muslim Brotherhood guy and admits Jews control the newspapers.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
The academics doing AI ethics tend to be doing simpler things, e.g. trying to figure out what a "fair" lending algorithm is.
The technical challenge is finding an algo which spots hidden patterns that predict loan repayment except for the biggest pattern that predicts repayment (namely that blacks are much less likely to repay them, holding all else equal). But stating it in such explicit terms is a cancellable offense.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
So here's a question. Can you illustrate specific testable predictions of both theories, and some experiments/measurements in which these predictions differ?
Concretely I'm asking for something like:
Experiment setup: ???
HBD prediction: X
HNU (Human Neural Uniformity) prediction: Y
X != Y
I'm asking because I vaguely recall some conversations during the ban on mentioning HBD (some years back) during which "systemic racism" was constructed as a theory which made identical predictions to HBD. Specifically, it's a force that causes Asians to excel, blacks to underperform, whites to give middling performance, and also it can't be directly measured by any methods in the social sciences.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I don't understand why you are inferring that teaching kids how to game the test is necessary for the functioning of the system
It ensures an unbiased measurement of tested material between students who did learn to "game" the test and those who didn't. Similarly, "bring a #2 pencil" or "there will be a test on Fri" has no direct benefit to students so teachers who don't feel like making those announcements should be protected.
But I guess teachers who can't figure that much out are definitely qualified to do whatever the heck they feel like regardless of what management/administration assigns them.
Things I've admitted to thinking:
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Trump seems pretty ok.
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"I have sexdar. It's like gaydar, but I can predict pronouns with >99% accuracy!" Admittedly the trans thing was just starting but wasn't so crazy as it is now
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Women aren't in tech cause they don't want to be.
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Assorted environmental things
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Poor people have it good in America and their problems are mostly self inflicted
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I don't vote, no one should. (This was to a girl who was in some voting encouragement NGO.)
But again, I'm not arguing these points. I'm trolling, entertaining myself and exerting playful intellectual dominance. You can have a prediction contest, but the first bet involves the loser buying the next round of drinks and the second bet puts her at risk of losing clothing.
Would you be able to off-handedly mention if the topic comes up, "Yeah, I think Ben Shapiro is basically right" and also not act like Ben Shapiro?
"It's so sad, Ben Shapiro is 100% right on everything yet he'll never know the love of a woman." If you aren't saying it with a smirk, don't say it.
I also can't stress enough that an important part of the delivery is being >6'1", benching your bodyweight and having flat abs.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
If you think there's some silver bullet to 100% stop scams, and Musk's failure to find it means the effort is worthless, then you simply don't understand the problem.
The thing about fraud/scams is that the supply curve slopes downwards.
You also didn't even read what Musk wrote about $8/verified account, namely that the verification process still happens. It's not simply "send $8 worth of shitcoins for a bluecheck".
So ... in that sense, $8 is clearly a win for spammers! (the scammer probably pays less than the $1.5k upfront per account, if they even do at all vs hacking, so who knows how hard it is to actually get an account ofc).
So let me illustrate how you've clearly not thought this through. Here's a simple way Musk can use the $8 payment process to verify the account in a manner that is hard for hackers to exploit directly, and also incentivizes them to bother someone else: no CC, you pay via bank transfer authorized by Plaid.
Now in order to get a verified twitter, a scammer also needs to either a) hack plaid b) hack BofA/Chase/etc. In both cases, if successful, there are far more lucrative things the hacker can do with the hack than get a checkmark - transfer money directly from the victim, buy an XBox using Afterpay/Klarna/Affirm (set up auto repayment via bank transfer with plaid) then sell it on eBay, that kind of thing.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Supposedly German unions use apprenticeship systems and generally produce a minimum level of quality.
That purported role is frequently filled by occupational licensing and unreasonable education requirements in the US (e.g. college degrees for daycare) which serve the same "protect our jobs from competition/give us more money" role that unions do.
Consider that in the first part of his presidency they had both parts of the legislature and executive. He got nothing done with all that!
As you note, he made a major tax reform which eliminated loopholes that funnel money to high income Democrats. He ended the PATRIOT act. His supreme court hit rate is 100%, resulting in ending Roe vs Wade, compared to the 50% hit rate for all Republicans since the 80's [1]. He started 0 wars.
He also made Operation Warp Speed happen, saving millions of lives by routing around the regulatory state.
Now I'd prefer DeSantis to Trump. But lets not pretend Trump did nothing; he certainly did far more than I expected, and far more good things than the swamp dwelling Republicans he was running against.
And realistically speaking he also made other Republicans better. In a world without Trump putting wokeness on our radar, would DeSantis be anything other than a generic Republican?
[1] Bush Jr: Roberts and Alito. Bush Sr: Thomas and Souter. Reagan: O'Connor, Rehnquist, Scalia and Kennedy.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
There’s no deadweight loss, it’s very difficult to game/avoid,
Property taxes very much have a deadweight loss - you may choose not to put your property to it's most efficient use since that would increase it's assessed value. Gaming is also reasonably straightforward - make improvements off the books (i.e. to interiors of your house and don't get permits).
That's why an LVT is so much better than a property tax - a vacant lot, a burned out husk, a single family home or a 20 story condo, either way you pay the same tax but more improvements -> more value for you and others.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
This isn't just raw bigotry - a person who's learned to do honor culture sparring instead of acting 'reasonably' and signaling disapproval subtlely, who hasn't practiced doing paperwork or writing essays, who doesn't have a support network of other rich people to fall back on, will in practice be at a disadvantage in life, even if they're just as 'biologically' smart as a rich white person.
There is at least one company that attempts to teach intelligent but culturally backward people to do upper class signaling: Bloom School, formerly Lambda. They quite explicitly teach lower class people how to perform class signaling - an example Austin Allred (the founder) gave is that they tell everyone to get a bank account before getting hired, since "just cut me a check" signals low class. They internalize the benefits by charging customers a fraction of their paycheck assuming they get a job that pays at least $50k/year.
It's a popular target of dishonest hit pieces by left wing journalists, near as I can tell for exactly this reason. Journalists are high class, Bloom/Lambda students are low class, and yet Bloom graduates earn more than journalism school graduates.
As for the "why do Jews and Asians succeed then" question...When you're excluded from good occupations by law, your culture will steer away from them and towards unproductive activity or crime,
Every western state of the Union except Washington explicitly included Asians in Jim Crow laws. Southern states did not, probably because the vast majority of Asians lived in the west.
Montana: "Negroes, Chinese and Japanese"
Arizona: "Negro, Mongolian, Malay, or Hindu"
California, quite famously the location of lots of anti-Asian discrimination: "Negroes, mulattos, Mongolians and Malays"
Nevada was more descriptive about what these terms mean: "Ethiopian or black race, Malay or brown race, Mongolian or yellow race, or Indian or red race"
Oregon: "Negro, Chinese, or any person having one-quarter or more Negro, Chinese or kanaka blood, or any person having more than one-half Indian blood." (Kanaka = pacific islander.)
Utah: "white and Negro, Malayan, mulatto, quadroon, or octoroon void."
Insofar as Asians were not explicitly mentioned in Jim Crow laws the courts generally would include them should the matter be tested. For example in California the law specified "no black, mulatto person, or Indian" and the California Supreme court interpreted it to include Chinese: "It can hardly be supposed that any Legislature would . . exclud[e] domestic negroes and Indians, . . . and turn loose upon the community the more degraded tribes of the same species, who have nothing in common with us."
https://en.wikipedia.org//wiki/List_of_Jim_Crow_law_examples_by_state
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Previously you said "individuals cannot be called upon to solve existing systemic problems" and "who else is supposed to solve social problems? Clearly not 'individuals' or whatever, because manifestly absent government intervention they haven't been able to solve them, otherwise they wouldn't exist".
But this is kind of silly, since they demonstrably can.
But you've now retreated to:
Simply because the people of Flint weren't willing to uproot their entire lives to find better water that doesn't imply that the problem isn't important enough to be worth solving via government intervention.
Or phrased differently, the people closest to the problem and with the most to gain from solving it have decided it's not worth exerting an ordinary level of effort to solve. That's a quite different claim.
Have you been mislead by journalists into not noticing this fact? I think that's what Caplan is complaining about.
When I say "ordinary level of effort" I mean a level of effort that is regularly exerted by a majority of Americans. The majority of Americans avoid poverty by working a job for most of the year, whereas the vast majority of poor Americans don't work by choice. (I.e. they are not looking for work.) The annual rate of inter-county moves in the US hit it's lowest in 2016 (at 5% of the US population), meaning that in 33 years the average American moved more than 1.7 times.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2016/cb16-189.html
tikimixologist
1yr ago
it is relevant to know that heritability is of no evidentiary value.
You have not shown this. You've merely shown that heritability is not 100% ironclad.
I await your answer as to which concrete predictions HBDers will get wrong due to neglect of this.
And, btw, it is hardly in the interests of the system to have falsely beliefs about what every kid has learned, rather than false beliefs about only some students.
Feel free to provide specific mechanics of how test prep produces false beliefs about student's ability and show a real standardized test on which your proposed strategy works.
Of course, the last time I asked this, you claimed to be agnostic that such a thing existed, yet now you seem to claim it exists for sure. Weird.
I didn't say they [methods to produce false beliefs about what kids learned] work, and I didn't say they don't. I have no idea either way, and I don't care, because it is irrelevant.
In that sense claim that race is socially constructed may mean that certain social aspects of race and its impact on daily lives of people is socially shaped even though it is obviously real in a sense that there are people with white skin and people with black skin.
That's the motte.
The bailey is that because race is socially constructed and not scientifically real, we can therefore assume any policy with disparate impact ("class starts at 10AM so show up before 10AM", "math questions have objective answers" or "don't beat up other children") is racist.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
GRRM purportedly told the showrunners exactly where the show was going. But because he didn't flesh it out at GRRM levels of detail, the showrunners had to fill stuff in and didn't. Why did Daenarys turn evil? Clearly GRRM told the writers it's because all the people she loves get killed and she suffers a lot. But if he were to actually write it, he'd realize that Missandei getting killed isn't narratively sufficient.
It's the same reason that a lot of "software architect" type people are kind of disastrous - if they actually sat down and wrote code instead of making diagrams and saying "fill in the details", they'd realize where the actual hard parts live.
GRRM could probably have made it work, though maybe 2 books would have become 4. The TV writers couldn't.
It is true that any system involves administrivia that is necessary for the functioning if the system but not directly related to it's end goal.
For example, GAAP accounting does not directly benefit either customers or shareholders of a corporation. Does that mean an accountants union would be beneficial for stakeholders because it would allow accountants to keep their job even if they find tracking SBC to be annoying and just decide to ignore it? Would software companies benefit if developers could ignore their manager and just build whatever they think might benefit shareholders?
I would support teachers who took these assignments to libsoftiktok/tucker/any of the last remaining journalists and visibly refused to do their job as a form of protest. And if the governor overrode process to let them keep their job I'd be fine with it.
I would not support creating any procedural methods to enable people who refuse to do their job to keep getting paid, however.
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