tikimixologist
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User ID: 257
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Everything that the doomers claim AI would do assumes a biological utility function, such as maximizing growth, reproduction, and fitness. It's very anthropomorphizing in the same way pop culture depictions of aliens just happen to be bipeds with two eyes and ears and a nose, and not a cloud of gas or whatever.
They do not assume this at all. You clearly haven't actually read about instrumental convergence which is a conclusion about how the world works and not an assumption.
But this goes contra to my understanding of what neural networks are, namely just function approximations by and large.
Did your understanding generate a track record of correct predictions about recent AI developments? The statement that "it's crazy that..." suggests you did not.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
So the steelman is that the MV residents want the immigrants deported ASAP due to lack of a Spanish language priest and teacher (the other services you mentioned), and also that the migrants are too dumb to make good choices for themselves. That's definitely less racist than thinking they are all carriers of scary foreign diseases.
Anyway, you are free to believe that this time the media isn't misleading you. You are also free to believe that every single migrant refused to show the info packet to reporters and reporters for some reason didn't think this was worth mentioning. But some of us actually know how to spot when they are very carefully not saying something.
tikimixologist
10mo ago
He got into law enforcement in NYC at the tail end of it being a dangerous city. So yes?
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Here's the original definition of the Chinese Robber Fallacy, from Alyssa Vance:
The Chinese Robber Fallacy is where you use a generic problem to attack a specific person or group, even though other groups have the problem just as much (or even more so).
[...editing a bit out, which you can find via above link...]
“But don’t non-Chinese rob people too?”
“Maybe, but if so, that doesn’t make the Chinese any less guilty, does it? First we should deal with the Chinese criminal problem, and then if we’re successful, maybe we can move on to other types of theft.”
My steelman of the Jim Crow position (and note I'm not a Jim Crow supporter!) is that they are making this argument instead:
“But don’t prosecutors let white people get away with murdering vulnerable people while using racial slurs too?”
“Nope, not even once. At least not since the globohomo cuck regime took over. RETVRN!" (Since this is a steelman, I'm assuming they know about Bombingham, Emmet Till and the 2'nd klan and are restricting their claims to the past decade or two.)
To prove them wrong you could provide a single example of a white guy filming himself doing a hate crime and then prosecutors dropping charges for restorative justice.
The OP specified "elderly black victim" but in my view you'd certainly prove your point if the black victim was a pregnant woman, in a wheelchair or whatever. I would not consider you to have proved your point if the victim was a fit young man in a gang or if it was some crazy situation like that Jewish guy with a brain tumor who faked 100 antisemitic bomb threats, however.
I am not aware of any such incidents but I'm also not all that interested in the WN stuff.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
On (2), most of the speculators aren't sitting on vacant land. They are sitting on underused land.
That's the same as it is now—why would I speculate in land I had no intention of selling?
For example, one may wish to capture a large and increasing stream of owner equivalent rent. (This is a major use case.) For example, one might speculatively buy a home in NYC in the 1970's and then continue to live in it until their death.
Generally speaking, most of truly distortionary problems in the US today consist of middle class people exploiting the system to gain long term stable revenue streams. (See also government pensions.)
Any improvements to efficiency of land use will be totally subject to zoning regulations.
Part of the value of an LVT is to tax land as if it's not in a NIMBY area in order to charge NIMBYs a high price for being NIMBYs. As in, consider local SF single family homeowners who prevent apartments from being built. Lets make them pay taxes as if their land were usable for apartments.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Scrolling up, we're discussing this:
Incels have done enough chadfishing experiments to show that you can say or believe whatever you want so long as they are attracted to you
I don't know what you mean by "actually commit". I certainly don't try to use FACTS AND LOGIC to convert women to conservativism or into my bed.
I make no comment about whether this works on politics for long term relationships, though certainly building and maintaining attraction through flirtation has helped my long term relationships.
tikimixologist
10mo ago
Left wing Soros prosecutors. Presumably the left wing voters who put them in office.
tikimixologist
10mo ago
"Didn't accomplish X specific goal" != "waste a year at least on just that and the only practical real world impact is an enraged left".
I don't think it counts for all that much to make the establishment right show their 'true colors' just before you join them.
The net result is the public has seen this, and Republicans have become better for it. Post-Trump DeSantis >> pre-Trump DeSantis, for example.
Does anyone love Israel more than Trump?
...record low black unemployment numbers...
Trump never campaigned on being the white nationalist/antisemitic president you seem to wish he was. A reminder of his campaign:
https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.-_pm4l4mJKmt7kRHb0Y0dwHaJz?pid=ImgDet&rs=1
tikimixologist
1yr ago
You seem to be making two entirely separate claims across your various comments here:
Claim 1: "Prominent EA types/the community as a statistical average have actually engaged in bad behavior in excess of base rates. This is harmful and morally wrong." (e.g. here: https://www.themotte.org/post/381/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/67827?context=8#context https://www.themotte.org/post/381/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/67831?context=8#context )
Claim 2: "Prominent EA types have followed a strategy which is suboptimal in the presence of hostile adversaries who wish to mislead the public about them without technically lying." (What I'm replying to right now.)
I think most people here disagree with (1) and agree with (2). For example in my comment above I'm disputing claim 1 and in reply you're asserting the truth of claim 2. That's pretty confusing, and I think if you want the conversation to be productive you should make it explicit which claim you are discussing.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Again, I don't think this is a case of "lied about by clout-chasers". He seems to have admitted that things happened as the bare account of it had it,
Perhaps a better way to describe it is "technically true statements written about by clout chasers in a manner that causes reasonable people to infer totally false conclusions".
For example, here's one totally false conclusion drawn by someone I think you would agree is a fairly intelligent person drawing reasonable inferences from the facts presented:
How would you feel if you walked into an office for an interview and your potential boss (male) said "Just be a sec, I gotta go jerk off"?
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Anyhow, if MV has to import professionals from TX
I see no evidence they do need to do this because the idea that all 50 of them needed a Spanish language medical exam for exotic foreign diseases is laughable.
But surely you are willing to admit that maybe, just maybe, sending the migrants to MV was not in their best interests?
I defer to the migrants in question, all of whom made a choice to get on the plane to MV.
Note how carefully most news articles hint - but don't explicitly state - that they were forced to. Meanwhile DeSantis quite explicitly states that it was voluntary, they had a packet which explained everything and had a map of MV. (I see no reason to trust their vague hints now given how frequently the media has mislead people about DeSantis in the past.)
tikimixologist
1yr ago
You claimed before:
Everything that the doomers claim AI would do assumes a biological utility function, such as maximizing growth, reproduction, and fitness.
[Instrumental convergence] Very much is an assumption
Now you claim:
I think it is what Wikipedia says it is
But Wikipedia says it is a conclusion derived from different assumptions which Wikipedia lists. None of them have anything to do with a biological utility function. So it's pretty clear you either a) don't think it is what Wikipedia says it is or b) didn't read wikipedia or anything else about it. But for some reason you still feel the need to make dismissive statements.
Feel free to leave me "on read". It is clear you are not here to discuss this in good faith. You might want to check out a subreddit called /r/sneerclub - it may be to your liking.
tikimixologist
10mo ago
For you, sure. But it might not be for others - such as me - since among other things, I don't think I'm the same race as you.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
There certainly is a limiting principle - it's when the marginal value of additional housing ~= marginal cost of providing it.
It's the exact same limiting principle that causes my local supermarked to be a pleasant place to shop instead of a warehouse sized ball pit full of rotting apples that customers don't want. Apple producers only make as many apples as they think customers want to buy at a price that makes them a reasonable profit.
And for any housing purchasers who don't want to live in such a place, they won't have to. If we turn Silicon Valley into a 266M person megalopolis by increasing density to Brooklyn levels, that leaves 67M people spread throughout the rest of a depopulated US. Plenty of space if you want to live there.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
First, it is well established that managers of companies do not always act in the best interests of the companies themselves.
Very true. For example, managers are well known to keep workers who should be fired - either to maintain their "empire" or just because it's socially uncomfortable to fire people they've formed relationships with.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/real-dev.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-040.pdf https://www.nber.org/papers/w3556 https://pure.eur.nl/en/publications/cultural-influences-on-employee-termination-decisions-firing-the-
Similarly, managers - as employees themselves - are incentivized to minimize accountability and maximize their own compensation.
How do unions counteract this, in either the general case or even in specific cases like education?
were able to push back on all sorts of proposals by administrators which we disliked and rationalized as being unlikely to inure to the benefit of students (newsflash: teachers know more about their students than administrators do).
Fixed that for you. Sure is convenient that teaching methods teachers find boring (phonics, direct instruction) are bad for students and all the studies showing otherwise are wrong.
“For seven years in a row, Oakland was the fastest-gaining urban district in California for reading,” recalls Weaver. “And we hated it.”
The teachers felt like curriculum robots—and pushed back. “This seems dehumanizing, this is colonizing, this is the man telling us what to do,” says Weaver, describing their response to the approach. “So we fought tooth and nail as a teacher group to throw that out.” It was replaced in 2015 by a curriculum that emphasized rich literary experiences.
https://time.com/6205084/phonics-science-of-reading-teachers/
Eyeballing their "Most Dangerous Counties" list, we find:
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64% American Indian, primary industries coal mining and ranching. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Horn_County,_Montana
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Baltimore (a city)
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Calhoun County, about which I can find almost no information because it's tiny and irrelevant beyond a few stories about drug overdoses.
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A 62% black county, with major industries being agriculture, manufacturing and "health care/social services". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_County,_Arkansas
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Holmes County, which is the dangerous part of Jackson Mississippi (a city or suburb)
I think there's two ways to think about an area being safe, and you+bloomberg are using a different one than most folks here.
Bloomberg/your numbers are meaningful if by moving to Big Horn County, I would then also give up my laptop class remote work job and take up lumberjacking. In the kitchen I'd stop cooking vegan adaptations of low carb japanese food and instead cook the heavily fried fatty foods more typical to American Indians, as well as the heavy drinking common to that demographic. (In spite of my nic I don't actually drink much, and actually specialize in low ABV stuff. Shoju FTW!) And I guess my genetics would also change.
However most people assume that they would move to a new place, adapt their current lifestyles to what is available locally (regular instead of malabar spinach), and not make adaptations that are too far removed (daily opioids laced with fentanyl instead of LSD microdoses).
tikimixologist
1yr ago
To answer your question of who could solve individual problems, usually individuals.
For example poverty can be solved by getting a job, avoiding drugs and not becoming a single mother.
Poor drinking water for an individual living in Flint can be solved for the individual by leaving Flint - it's not as if Michael Moore didnt give people a heads up about Flint 33 years ago.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Houston and Tokyo (notable places that allow building houses) are not even close to Kowloon. So clearly the market equilibrium is not where you think.
You should actually pay attention to the numbers. The Brooklyn West phenomenon that you fear involves literally 2/3 of all Americans moving to Silicon Valley.
I am not aware of any YIMBY who has proposed moving 100% of America into NYC or Mega SV and banning houses anywhere else. You seem to have confused them with NIMBYs - the latter group is the folks who oppose building a Brooklyn density San Jose in the vacant land adjacent to San Jose.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Plus, pro-war means supporting the security state which directly helps Democrats win. (See Russiagate or twitter files, for example.)
If he can get twitter to 6 billion revenue and 4 billion costs then it’s worth 50 billion.
Interest rates are 4.09% as of yesterday, so a highly liquid $2B revenue stream guaranteed by full faith and credit of the US government is worth $50B.
Even if Musk gets twitter to make $2B/year, it's certainly not highly liquid and/or guaranteed by the US govt. Hence it's worth less.
That said, if Musk can get twitter to $1B EBIT then debt service is handled and he eventually owns twitter outright and just needs to keep it in the black. Then it's his prestige property, much like the Bezos Post or the Soros Conspiracy (I have no idea what to call Soros's shadowy enterprise that gets you called antisemitic if you acknowledge it's existence and influence).
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Work rules are, quite explicitly, something that does not improve business. It makes businesses less able to engage in process improvements, particularly since any process improvement becomes a new opportunity for employees to grab more without adding value.
Work rules are generally more harmful than just demands for more money due to this deadweight loss. As an example of this, consider port of LA workers opposing any kind of productivity increasing automation under the guise of work rules.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I guess if you want to read, try to find transcripts of their speeches.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Typically "cost of living" is "a made up number to justify wealth redistribution".
I can't recall ever seeing a "cost of living" number that was lower than the 70-80'th percentile of global income after adjusting for PPP.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I guess deporting people on the theory that maybe they are carrying scary exotic diseases is only racist when non-wealthy people do it.
Anyway, I'm pretty sure MV has the resources to hire...1 spanish speaking Texas doctor for 4 days (assuming 30 minutes/exam x 8 hour days x 4 days = 64 exams > 50 people).
What do you think instrumental convergence is?
I am becoming suspicious that you are spouting dismissive words without those words actually referencing any ideas.
Does physics not suggest that controllable energy sources are a necessary step in doing lots of different things?
That much is clear.
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