tikimixologist
No bio...
User ID: 257
tikimixologist
11mo ago
He got into law enforcement in NYC at the tail end of it being a dangerous city. So yes?
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Very much is an assumption and not "how the world works". It's an article of faith masquerading as a scientific explanation of how things ought to be.
What do you think instrumental convergence is?
I am becoming suspicious that you are spouting dismissive words without those words actually referencing any ideas.
The only conclusion about how things ought to work comes from the field of Physics for me, not "AI ethics".
Does physics not suggest that controllable energy sources are a necessary step in doing lots of different things?
No it didn't because I don't make generative AI predictions or think about them at all.
That much is clear.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
So the steelman is that the MV residents want the immigrants deported ASAP due to lack of a Spanish language priest and teacher (the other services you mentioned), and also that the migrants are too dumb to make good choices for themselves. That's definitely less racist than thinking they are all carriers of scary foreign diseases.
Anyway, you are free to believe that this time the media isn't misleading you. You are also free to believe that every single migrant refused to show the info packet to reporters and reporters for some reason didn't think this was worth mentioning. But some of us actually know how to spot when they are very carefully not saying something.
tikimixologist
5mo ago
Housing prices in the parts of the country that get the top 30% population growth
Ft worth, Phoenix and San Antonio are not known for having expensive housing. Or if you look at it by metro area rather than city, neither are Dallas, Houston or The Villages (FL).
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/subcounty-metro-micro-estimates.html
Pop growth is disproportionately in areas that allow houses to be built, for fairly mechanical reasons.
tikimixologist
10mo ago
Left wing Soros prosecutors. Presumably the left wing voters who put them in office.
tikimixologist
10mo ago
"Didn't accomplish X specific goal" != "waste a year at least on just that and the only practical real world impact is an enraged left".
I don't think it counts for all that much to make the establishment right show their 'true colors' just before you join them.
The net result is the public has seen this, and Republicans have become better for it. Post-Trump DeSantis >> pre-Trump DeSantis, for example.
Does anyone love Israel more than Trump?
...record low black unemployment numbers...
Trump never campaigned on being the white nationalist/antisemitic president you seem to wish he was. A reminder of his campaign:
https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.-_pm4l4mJKmt7kRHb0Y0dwHaJz?pid=ImgDet&rs=1
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Yeah guess I misinterpreted your post as saying both property tax and LVT have this property, as opposed to just the latter. My bad!
tikimixologist
1yr ago
You seem to be making two entirely separate claims across your various comments here:
Claim 1: "Prominent EA types/the community as a statistical average have actually engaged in bad behavior in excess of base rates. This is harmful and morally wrong." (e.g. here: https://www.themotte.org/post/381/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/67827?context=8#context https://www.themotte.org/post/381/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/67831?context=8#context )
Claim 2: "Prominent EA types have followed a strategy which is suboptimal in the presence of hostile adversaries who wish to mislead the public about them without technically lying." (What I'm replying to right now.)
I think most people here disagree with (1) and agree with (2). For example in my comment above I'm disputing claim 1 and in reply you're asserting the truth of claim 2. That's pretty confusing, and I think if you want the conversation to be productive you should make it explicit which claim you are discussing.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Again, I don't think this is a case of "lied about by clout-chasers". He seems to have admitted that things happened as the bare account of it had it,
Perhaps a better way to describe it is "technically true statements written about by clout chasers in a manner that causes reasonable people to infer totally false conclusions".
For example, here's one totally false conclusion drawn by someone I think you would agree is a fairly intelligent person drawing reasonable inferences from the facts presented:
How would you feel if you walked into an office for an interview and your potential boss (male) said "Just be a sec, I gotta go jerk off"?
tikimixologist
1yr ago
We haven't set things up to give everyone personalized think tank support yet.
I'm not proposing personalized think tank support, merely in loco parentis. If a person is part of this "unable to make good choices" class, they get to live in an institutionalized environment where important choices are made for them. They don't make the choice to overconsume soda and other junk food (as the current poor do), they get to pick a few options off a menu in a healthy food cafeteria. They don't get to control their own TV, there's a TV that plays wholesome programming a couple of hours a day and they don't get to use it if they don't participate in exercise and productive labor. Etc.
In short, the setup my 2 year old lives with.
Looking for a job is a cost. You don't actually do anything productive to society while looking for a job.
Yes, searching for something isn't productive until you find it. But refusing to search is a great way to ensure that you won't find it.
Looking for full time work (or having a job) at least 27 weeks/year is a 97.3% effective way to avoid poverty in the US.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/working-poor/2019/home.htm
In contrast, about 21% of people outside the labor force were poor. (28M poor people outside the labor force as per BLS report above) / (330M people x 40% outside the labor force).
For one I'm explicitly avoiding any claims about what the situation actually is on average, or on a case by case basis, because I don't actually know.
Why am I unsurprised you don't know? But it's actually not hard to know - it's pretty well documented that the situation is "drugs and video games are fun".
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23552/w23552.pdf https://qz.com/1070206/nearly-half-of-working-age-american-men-who-are-out-of-the-labor-force-are-using-painkillers-daily https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/video-killed-radio-star
I suppose a theoretical alternative explanation is that jobs have suddenly become far more dangerous and people are becoming injured and turning to drugs to cope with pain. This change happened concurrently with the available jobs shifting away from factories/coal mines and towards air conditioned offices. Using a laptop is dangerous I guess!
In some cases, looking for a job is legitimately a waste of everyone's time, because the individual is worth little to employers and their time is worth more elsewhere. I'm not talking about playing video games here.
Perhaps you should speak plainly and be specific.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Here's the original definition of the Chinese Robber Fallacy, from Alyssa Vance:
The Chinese Robber Fallacy is where you use a generic problem to attack a specific person or group, even though other groups have the problem just as much (or even more so).
[...editing a bit out, which you can find via above link...]
“But don’t non-Chinese rob people too?”
“Maybe, but if so, that doesn’t make the Chinese any less guilty, does it? First we should deal with the Chinese criminal problem, and then if we’re successful, maybe we can move on to other types of theft.”
My steelman of the Jim Crow position (and note I'm not a Jim Crow supporter!) is that they are making this argument instead:
“But don’t prosecutors let white people get away with murdering vulnerable people while using racial slurs too?”
“Nope, not even once. At least not since the globohomo cuck regime took over. RETVRN!" (Since this is a steelman, I'm assuming they know about Bombingham, Emmet Till and the 2'nd klan and are restricting their claims to the past decade or two.)
To prove them wrong you could provide a single example of a white guy filming himself doing a hate crime and then prosecutors dropping charges for restorative justice.
The OP specified "elderly black victim" but in my view you'd certainly prove your point if the black victim was a pregnant woman, in a wheelchair or whatever. I would not consider you to have proved your point if the victim was a fit young man in a gang or if it was some crazy situation like that Jewish guy with a brain tumor who faked 100 antisemitic bomb threats, however.
I am not aware of any such incidents but I'm also not all that interested in the WN stuff.
And, btw, it is hardly in the interests of the system to have falsely beliefs about what every kid has learned, rather than false beliefs about only some students.
Feel free to provide specific mechanics of how test prep produces false beliefs about student's ability and show a real standardized test on which your proposed strategy works.
Of course, the last time I asked this, you claimed to be agnostic that such a thing existed, yet now you seem to claim it exists for sure. Weird.
I didn't say they [methods to produce false beliefs about what kids learned] work, and I didn't say they don't. I have no idea either way, and I don't care, because it is irrelevant.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
From a career perspective I also doubt it's good to be a face on a monitor to bosses and coworkers, especially if you're entry level like I am.
I think it depends on whether the company is full remote. At my company there's a new guy I'm familiar with. I have no idea where he live. His manager is in Montana, the other senior guy on his team is in New Orleans, and at most they all met each other once at the offsite. (Probably in 2023 there won't be a $3-5k/person offsite due to cost cutting.) I can't see how it's hurting him.
I suspect it would be different if his manager and half his team were in NYC, while he was just a face on the monitor from wherever. Highly recommend against that if you're entry level.
My point is that the Soviet Union (a communist, and therefore anti-nationalist) country supported the IRA. It wasn't because they agreed with Irish nationalism, it was because causing trouble for Britain was fun and in their interest. Same reason Iran might help AQ or other Sunni militant groups whose primary focus is on overthrowing MBS.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
As I said:
GRRM could probably have made it work, though maybe 2 books would have become 4.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
On (2), most of the speculators aren't sitting on vacant land. They are sitting on underused land.
That's the same as it is now—why would I speculate in land I had no intention of selling?
For example, one may wish to capture a large and increasing stream of owner equivalent rent. (This is a major use case.) For example, one might speculatively buy a home in NYC in the 1970's and then continue to live in it until their death.
Generally speaking, most of truly distortionary problems in the US today consist of middle class people exploiting the system to gain long term stable revenue streams. (See also government pensions.)
Any improvements to efficiency of land use will be totally subject to zoning regulations.
Part of the value of an LVT is to tax land as if it's not in a NIMBY area in order to charge NIMBYs a high price for being NIMBYs. As in, consider local SF single family homeowners who prevent apartments from being built. Lets make them pay taxes as if their land were usable for apartments.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Again - will we actually do it? I'm asking about probability and gambling odds, not theoretical possibility of a comforting story.
With what odds will an innocent person sentenced to life imprisonment actually get their sentence partially reversed? Or...here's a more quantitative approach.
Take a typical time to live on death row of maybe 10 years (all the appeals, etc). What fraction of people sentence to life imprisonment get their sentences reversed in year 11-99? I'd hazard a guess it's quite low, but not sure where to find the numbers.
(Actually I suspect it might be high if your dataset overlaps the period when DNA testing was introduced - mainly cause a backlog of cases was created that could only be addressed after a technological advance.)
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Scrolling up, we're discussing this:
Incels have done enough chadfishing experiments to show that you can say or believe whatever you want so long as they are attracted to you
I don't know what you mean by "actually commit". I certainly don't try to use FACTS AND LOGIC to convert women to conservativism or into my bed.
I make no comment about whether this works on politics for long term relationships, though certainly building and maintaining attraction through flirtation has helped my long term relationships.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Anyhow, if MV has to import professionals from TX
I see no evidence they do need to do this because the idea that all 50 of them needed a Spanish language medical exam for exotic foreign diseases is laughable.
But surely you are willing to admit that maybe, just maybe, sending the migrants to MV was not in their best interests?
I defer to the migrants in question, all of whom made a choice to get on the plane to MV.
Note how carefully most news articles hint - but don't explicitly state - that they were forced to. Meanwhile DeSantis quite explicitly states that it was voluntary, they had a packet which explained everything and had a map of MV. (I see no reason to trust their vague hints now given how frequently the media has mislead people about DeSantis in the past.)
tikimixologist
10mo ago
I think objectively you'd have to be pretty cucked to vote R in Florida as a naturalized or even 2nd gen Chinese immigrant right now.
Can you explain this statement?
tikimixologist
10mo ago
I never said he did. He did, however, campaign on BUILDING A WALL and DEPORTING ALL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. Maybe you missed it.
And he did more or less everything he could to accomplish this but failed to defeat the deep state. The courts shut down basically everything he did. In contrast, remember Bush teaming up with Pelosi to pass amnesty?
I do not dispute that Trump failed in this goal. I dispute that Trump was "business as usual."
tikimixologist
11mo ago
Perhaps. But then study Guiliani era NYC, not Hong Kong.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
the idea that Wall Street and Exxon are left-wing now,
Is a straw man you invented, along with the rest of your comment.
You claimed before:
Now you claim:
But Wikipedia says it is a conclusion derived from different assumptions which Wikipedia lists. None of them have anything to do with a biological utility function. So it's pretty clear you either a) don't think it is what Wikipedia says it is or b) didn't read wikipedia or anything else about it. But for some reason you still feel the need to make dismissive statements.
Feel free to leave me "on read". It is clear you are not here to discuss this in good faith. You might want to check out a subreddit called /r/sneerclub - it may be to your liking.
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