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Notes -
Anyone else watching the drama play out electing the Speaker in the United States House of Representatives? You can watch for free on C-SPAN. Today is the first day of the 118th Congress and the House's first order of business is electing a Speaker. Normally this is a pro-forma affair and whoever is the leader of their party cruises to victory on their first ballot. The last time a Speaker election went beyond one ballot was 1923, and that was resolved only after five ballots. So far today we've had one ballot in which Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) (the presumptive speaker) has not only failed to win a majority of votes cast and become Speaker, but to win even a plurality of votes in the ballot (the Democrats voted unanimously for Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)). The current split in the House is 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats. So if every member votes then 218 votes are needed to win and McCarthy can afford to lose just 4 Republican votes (assuming no cross-party-voting). Currently McCarthy is on his way to lose a second ballot, with 19 votes having gone to Jim Jordan (R-OH). On the first ballot McCarthy lost 19 votes, mostly to Andy Biggs (R-AZ) but some to Other. Jordan has already exceeded Biggs total, but the voting isn't finished so it remains to be seen whether more people have fallen in line and voted for McCarthy or if Republicans coalesce around Jordan or some other candidate.
It seems to me the most likely outcome is Republicans eventually fall in line and elect McCarthy, but other outcomes are possible. Republicans could potentially coalesce around another candidate (Jordan seems possible). Since what's required is a majority of all votes cast Jeffries could win if enough Republicans abstain or don't vote, leading to a Dem speaker in a majority Republican house.
It's interesting to look at the drama today through the lens of the common complaints about infighting among the Democrats and the left. For all that discussion it seems the Democratic Party has gotten behind Jeffries as Pelosi's replacement in short order, while Republicans can't seem to reach consensus on who should be their leader in the House.
ETA:
At the end of the second ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 203
Jordan - 19
This means McCarthy picked up no votes between first and second ballot. All the votes that went to Biggs/Other on the first ballot went to Jordan on the second ballot.
ETA2:
At the end of the third ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 202
Jordan - 20
McCarthy now officially losing ground to Jordan. This is kind of funny because Jordan (at least by his own words on the House floor) doesn't want the job and wants McCarthy to have it.
ETA3:
The House just adjourned (Speaker still undecided) until noon tomorrow.
I've been wondering for the past few weeks whether there's a chance that Democrats would find an acceptable moderate Republican from the Cheney/Kinzinger mold and try to peel off enough moderate Republicans to give him the win. Unanimously voting for Jeffries is a nice symbolic gesture, but there's no real chance the guy is going to win. It would be a win for the Republicans in swing districts whom the party owes its majority to; they can claim that McCarthy made too many concessions to the MAGA wing and wasn't going to win anyway, so better to have a speaker that accurately reflects the values of the majority of the chamber. For Democrats it would be a total coup, since, even in victory, the Republicans still don't really control congress in any meaningful way. Even if it doesn't work (i.e. AOC and other proggies can't stomach voting for a Republican and it derails the whole plan), I don't really see any downside. Even the possibility of it working would be more exciting news than McCarthy winning on the 189th ballot.
Cheney/Kinzinger are NOT moderates. They are extremists. Probably the two most pro-war people in congress. They are just extremists in a way that Dems like them because the enemy of your enemy is your friend and Dems and the Cheney/Kinzinger share common enemies. And as below if they had any real power the Dems wouldn’t like them.
Plus, pro-war means supporting the security state which directly helps Democrats win. (See Russiagate or twitter files, for example.)
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