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Anyone else watching the drama play out electing the Speaker in the United States House of Representatives? You can watch for free on C-SPAN. Today is the first day of the 118th Congress and the House's first order of business is electing a Speaker. Normally this is a pro-forma affair and whoever is the leader of their party cruises to victory on their first ballot. The last time a Speaker election went beyond one ballot was 1923, and that was resolved only after five ballots. So far today we've had one ballot in which Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) (the presumptive speaker) has not only failed to win a majority of votes cast and become Speaker, but to win even a plurality of votes in the ballot (the Democrats voted unanimously for Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)). The current split in the House is 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats. So if every member votes then 218 votes are needed to win and McCarthy can afford to lose just 4 Republican votes (assuming no cross-party-voting). Currently McCarthy is on his way to lose a second ballot, with 19 votes having gone to Jim Jordan (R-OH). On the first ballot McCarthy lost 19 votes, mostly to Andy Biggs (R-AZ) but some to Other. Jordan has already exceeded Biggs total, but the voting isn't finished so it remains to be seen whether more people have fallen in line and voted for McCarthy or if Republicans coalesce around Jordan or some other candidate.
It seems to me the most likely outcome is Republicans eventually fall in line and elect McCarthy, but other outcomes are possible. Republicans could potentially coalesce around another candidate (Jordan seems possible). Since what's required is a majority of all votes cast Jeffries could win if enough Republicans abstain or don't vote, leading to a Dem speaker in a majority Republican house.
It's interesting to look at the drama today through the lens of the common complaints about infighting among the Democrats and the left. For all that discussion it seems the Democratic Party has gotten behind Jeffries as Pelosi's replacement in short order, while Republicans can't seem to reach consensus on who should be their leader in the House.
ETA:
At the end of the second ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 203
Jordan - 19
This means McCarthy picked up no votes between first and second ballot. All the votes that went to Biggs/Other on the first ballot went to Jordan on the second ballot.
ETA2:
At the end of the third ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 202
Jordan - 20
McCarthy now officially losing ground to Jordan. This is kind of funny because Jordan (at least by his own words on the House floor) doesn't want the job and wants McCarthy to have it.
ETA3:
The House just adjourned (Speaker still undecided) until noon tomorrow.
Looks like McCarthy still hasn’t got it, despite Trump’s endorsement. I suppose it’s possible that the holdouts don’t actually check Truth Social. Or that they are more interested in having their Manchin moment than in taking marching orders from Trump, let alone their caucus.
Note also the absolute derail into identity politics. I can’t tell if that’s an editorial slant or if House Republicans are really that performative about Black representation.
In spite of the schadenfreude I derive from seeing Tea Partiers do their thing to someone else, I find this whole saga depressing. There are at least 30 people in Congress who don’t place much value on functional government, who were arguably elected on that basis. It was shortsighted and frustrating in the Obama years, and it remains so today.
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I think people in this thread are underestimating how dysfunctional this is. A party caucus in a legislature isn't just a talking shop for mutually sympathetic legislators - it is an agreement to accept party discipline in order to gain the benefits of power. The whole point of a caucus being in the majority is that the caucus votes internally on issues like who to support for the speakership, and then they all vote the same way. If you can't get the caucus to vote together, then you have a majority in name only. Despite the classic meme status of "I belong to no organised political party - I am a Democrat", the Democrats never managed to f*** this up in this way, even when their party was split between Northern leftists and Dixiecrats.
The incoming House republican caucus held its internal vote after the elections in November, and voted 188-31 (by secret ballot, which is the norm for internal party votes) in favour of McCarthy. The whole point of being a caucus is that all 222 Republicans are now supposed to vote for the duly selected Republican candidate (i.e. McCarthy) in the public vote. The rebels (who do not include Jim Jordan himself - he voted for McCarthy like he is supposed to, and indeed nominated McCarthy on the second public ballot) are the real RINOs here - they are not accepting the basic responsibilities of caucus membership. If the Republicans can't agree on a Speaker, then in a very real sense they are not the majority.
This is why we are not seeing a move to choose a compromise candidate (according to gossip on various right-wing websites, Steve Scalise is acceptable to both factions). McCarthy thinks he is entitled to the speakership because he won the Republican caucus vote and the Republicans are in the majority. And if the Republicans were an organised political party rather than a clown show he would be right. And the 188 Republican congressmen who voted for him think they are entitled to the benefits of being in the majority, and the 31 dissidents should vote with the party if they want to share in those benefits. And if the Republicans were an organised political party, they would be right.
If the Republican rebels don't climb down after making their point for the cameras and the majority Republicans negotiate, then there are not two organised parties in the House with the Republicans in the majority. There are three parties (Democrats, Republicans, and MAGAtards) with nobody in the majority. And Scalise wouldn't be a Speaker leading a majority party, he would be a Speaker leading a coalition.
Don't do this, please.
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What functionality is being blocked by such behavior? What interest of the constituents is being compromised?
If the Republicans were an organized political party, Trump would not have happened.
Your arguments are all about the rules of the system, but the system is supposed to serve concrete ends. A large percentage of Republicans do not believe those ends are being served by the existing system, and so they are revolting against that system.
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Well, Gaetz argument is “what is the use of power if it will never be used to accomplish our stated goals?”
So why is that dysfunctional? This is the one time he can probably get concessions for his political goals and he is doing so. The demands actually aren’t that unrealistic (and would probably be a good thing from a governor perspective ab initio). Parties aren’t about getting power for the sake of power. They are about getting power for the sake of accomplishing certain tasks.
In 2021, AOC and the squad voted for Nancy Pelosi for speaker, despite noisily disagreeing with her, and went on to enjoy the privileges of being part of a functioning majority. Compared to a non-functioning Congress or a Republican speaker, this helped accomplish their stated goals (notably by passing several huge spending bills).
If Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus vote for McCarthy they will help accomplish their stated goals (based on Gaetz's speech nominating Jordan, these seem to be passing the bills that need passing, standing firm against the Senate and White House on the budget, and investigating Deep State corruption) compared to a non-functioning Congress or a Democratic speaker - because these are goals which require being in the majority. Based on this Reason article the main substantive demands include bringing a non-serious agenda (a balanced budget, a large tax cut, a large spending increase on border security, and an unconstitutional term limits law) up for a vote. This obviously doesn't advance Gaetz's stated goals, because it doesn't do anything at all except make noise and waste floor time. I can't work out what the procedural demands the Freedom Caucus are making which McCarthy hasn't conceded (he has conceded on the Motion to Vacate issue, agreeing that any five Congressmen should be able to force a vote to remove him).
If the Freedom Caucus want to get more of their agenda through, they need more power, which means more seats. If a group of 20 reps can overrule 188 reps by threatening to throw their toys out of the pram, then this works for everyone - and the RINOest 20 reps have a stronger negotiating position than the Freedom Caucus, because they can cut a deal with the Dems.
Of course, it is possible that the Freedom Caucus are not seeking to advance their stated goals. Some people just want to watch the world burn, and it isn't that surprising if 20 of them got elected to Congress. There is also the ever-present possibility that politicians are grandstanding rather than trying to advance policy goals. (Never!) But if this is grandstanding, it is an unusually dysfunctional kind - AOC and other anti-establishment Congressmen managed to grandstand without gumming up the election of a Speaker.
At least some members of the freedom caucus probably expect to benefit politically from shutting the government down and preventing anything from getting done. Presumably no rinos or democrats do.
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Did it? What goals did AOC obtain?
Well this happened. I see trillions of spending that AOC supported and Republicans opposed there, much of which benefitted her constituents. None of it would have happened with a non-functioning Congress or a Republican speaker. I can also hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth by conservatives who don't like it, and even by Republican squishes like McCarthy. (I also think that the success of the Squad in Democratic primaries and in media noisemaking after their elections has contributed to a vibe shift among Democrats which pushed Biden and Pelosi leftwards in a way that isn't as immediately obvious as a big fight over the Speakership).
If you mean "What goals did AOC obtain that Pelosi opposed then you are asking the wrong question. People don't, or at least shouldn't, go into politics to count coup against their own parties. They shouldn't, but often do, go into politics to induce wailing and gnashing of teeth on the other side of the aisle. They do and should go into politics to pass bills they support and that benefit their constituents.
AOC couldn't beat Pelosi because she didn't have the votes. So she took what she could get, which worked out at more money than you could shake a stick at plus the stick. The same applies to Gaetz vs McCarthy. If he wants more power he should win more votes.
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Maybe this also serves as a sort of an illustration why, in other countries, the center-right often prefers formally cooperating with the center-left to the far-right, even if the center-right and far-right might agree on many topics. This sort of a "we're not giving a shit about how this process is supposed to work, we hate the process and we hate you!" -behavior is very typical of right-wing populist parties all over Europe, both nationally, locally and within the EU; simple agreement on a number of issues won't cover for the fact that it just makes those parties a highly unreliable partner, moreso than the theoretically opposed center-left parties which still understand the rules of the game and generally agree to play by them.
I agree. It sounds like self-justification on the part of the swamp, but legislatures really do only work if they are dominated by the kind of person who thinks that being in power is more fun than being right and noisy about it.
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Where have the far right been unreliable partners in Europe? They seem undesired as partners but have they been more unreliable than anyone else?
It wasn't due to the far right that the government in Italy collapsed for instance and I don't believe that the governments Denmark or Norway have had major procedural problems due to the right and the previous Swedish government collapsed due to the left.
We'll see how things go in Sweden with our current government but from my pov it seems like SD is very committed to appearing like a reliable partner and a serious party.
It seems to me that lack of cooperation isn't due to parliamentary reasons but rather social ones and PR.
It's a bit of a paradox, really; the far right generally gets to power on the basis of strong anti-systemic, tear-down-the-system rhetoric, but then is fairly pliant once in power.
I'm not really talking here about the actual behavior, though, more the general image that leads to center-right reticence (or, rather, is one of the reasons for that reticence). Even if such parties generally don't govern as they preach, you always have to account for the possibility that one of them might do so.
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Any concern over respect about process on the part of Democrats are insincere. For instance, by tradition (the same sort of tradition that requires a unanimous caucus), the minority party is supposed to control its own committee assignments. This didn't matter when it came to stripping Marjorie Taylor Greene of hers.
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What’s going on here? Is there an actual difference between McCarthy and Jordan? A Trump/DeSantis referendum, or even just personal likeability?
I’m not inclined to read this as decisive in any way, but there has to be some reason.
The GOP establishment wants business as usual (no fiscal restraint, no rolling back and changes from Dems, no serious pushback/investigation on security apparatus weaponization against GOP/Trump, generally limiting themselves to saying the right words and being Democrats-light). The Trumpist/populist/MAGA base is fed up with business as usual (has been for years now, since Tea Party time, just can't figure out how to fix it) and they may have finally elected some people to light some fires under the establishment's too comfortable butts. So that's exactly what they are doing. It's not about differences in specific people as much as what these people represent. McCarthy is "business as usual", not electing him (or at least causing him a lot of trouble to be elected) is "not business as usual".
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As far as I'm aware, the populist side doesn't think McCarthy will treat any of the investigations Republicans want to do seriously because he doesn't want to lose his DC social status.
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I'd expect it's mostly Trumpist/mainstream GOP tribal fighting, along with some attempts to find a scapegoat for the various problems of the last few years (eg poor showing in last election, the mess that was the J6 commission, minimal effective resistance on the recent huge spending bill). EsotericCD makes that argument more eloquently here.
That said, McCarthy is perceived as an extremely opportunistic politician even by the low standards of the class, often to the detriment of the broader political sphere. I'm not sure how much that's true rather than perception, but the times he's popped up on my radar doing exactly what you'd expect for that aren't zero, either.
I don't think anyone likes Jordan, possibly including himself. Even for Ohio, the OSU wrestling scandal (and, uh, anyone that doesn't like prefacing a college's acronym with "The") has no small number of Republicans holding their nose. But he's Trumpist and been around a while, which may be enough of a schelling point.
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McCarthy is very establishment and supports long term plans to fund the government.
Jim Jordan is a tea party remnant with populist/maga support who supports temporary funding measures to create brinksmanship allowing him to negotiate for [R] priorities.
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The Republican Conference apparently think there's a difference. Speaker of the House is a very powerful position because they have almost total control over what bills come up for a vote, what amendments can be introduced, etc. Even moreso than the Senate Majority Leader. Based on the speeches some Republicans have given so far they think McCarthy won't be conservative enough in what bills he brings to the floor for a vote.
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I've been wondering for the past few weeks whether there's a chance that Democrats would find an acceptable moderate Republican from the Cheney/Kinzinger mold and try to peel off enough moderate Republicans to give him the win. Unanimously voting for Jeffries is a nice symbolic gesture, but there's no real chance the guy is going to win. It would be a win for the Republicans in swing districts whom the party owes its majority to; they can claim that McCarthy made too many concessions to the MAGA wing and wasn't going to win anyway, so better to have a speaker that accurately reflects the values of the majority of the chamber. For Democrats it would be a total coup, since, even in victory, the Republicans still don't really control congress in any meaningful way. Even if it doesn't work (i.e. AOC and other proggies can't stomach voting for a Republican and it derails the whole plan), I don't really see any downside. Even the possibility of it working would be more exciting news than McCarthy winning on the 189th ballot.
Acceptable to who? A Cheney as speaker would utterly unite the base against them, beyond the remaining MAGA types. It would be another TEA party.
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Cheney/Kinzinger are NOT moderates. They are extremists. Probably the two most pro-war people in congress. They are just extremists in a way that Dems like them because the enemy of your enemy is your friend and Dems and the Cheney/Kinzinger share common enemies. And as below if they had any real power the Dems wouldn’t like them.
Plus, pro-war means supporting the security state which directly helps Democrats win. (See Russiagate or twitter files, for example.)
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They'd have to find such an "acceptable" Republican, which they cannot do, because by definition, an "acceptable Republican" is one who wields no power. Whence, Cheney became acceptable when she was stripped of leadership positions for undermining Republicans. Romney became acceptable after his landslide presidential election loss. McCain became unacceptable when he won the Republican nomination for President, and regained acceptability after his humiliating loss.
I eagerly expect the time where Trump retires from the political scene and it turns out he's a moderate centrist and a very acceptable person unlike that new Republican presidential candidate who is literally Hitler.
I mean, it's already happening:
https://web.archive.org/web/20230102131625/https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/ron-desantis-just-as-bad-as-donald-trump-2024
That's a start. The end of the road would be "We're not against all Republicans, only extremists. For example, look at Trump - he's perfectly fine, respected ex-president, philanthropist, statesman and gentleman, about whom we'd never say a bad word. But if you compare to that insane extremist that they nominated now, what a difference! How far the GOP has fallen! We just can't avoid comparing him to Hitler (which we never done with a Republican ever before)!".
I don't think this will happen, I think Trump will be looked back on a similar-ish level to Nixon where people can't seriously say a new Republican is morally worse. Although they'll probably get around this by frequently saying "While this new Republican candidate isn't as morally bad as Trump, they're still really bad, and will actually be worse on net because they're halfway intelligent and will accomplish goals Trump never could".
Yes it could happen.
"Donald Trump had his faults, but he was great leader and statesman, always dignified, honorable and presidential. He would never ever imagine someone like Nick Fuentes raising Nazi flag over White House and holding catboy sex orgies in the Oval Office!"
I thought the assumption was that there wouldn't actually be anyone worse than Trump and it was just being predicted that the media will inevitably hyperbolize the next Republican as worse than Trump anyways. But in a scenario where someone like Nick Fuentes, who I think is farther right than Trump, is elected; then yeah of course the media will call him uniquely far right, because he would be.
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I don't think this will actually happen. I think they invested too much into the Trump narrative to ever drop it. They went way, way past Bush or any previous Republican. The valence of Trump is now fixed, and will only be further embellished from here; future Republicans will be tarred as "Trumpists", as the second coming of Trump himself.
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To be Fair: this has been happening for 4+ years in lib spaces; once everyone who takes this shit seriously realized trump was a retard.
Lotta "Oh shit we just dodged a bullet; imagine if it was pence/desantis/whoever in charge with all three branches instead of this manchild".
The problem is they would have to explain why Desantis would be such a terror compared to Trump when his reputation amongst people who live in his state and thus are actually governed by him is to give him an overwhelming electoral victory and a general record of approval.
You can't go "Trump was bad because he was incompetent and alienated possible allies (both immediate political allies and foreign policy allies) and was unable to govern effectively" and say "But Desantis worse because' he's competent, is good at forming and keeping alliances and governs supremely effectively."
Because now you're saying that you preferred Trump be incompetent and ineffective.
With Desantis it's "Well he supports policies I don't like and he's GOOD at getting them passed!" Which yes, would make him scarier to his opponents but is arguably a pitch that makes him more appealing to everyone who might consider voting for him.
Yup.
This is libs talking to libs.
They are firmly of the opinion that republicans in general and the right fringe in specific are ant-humanist authoritarians; and are more worried about a competent authoritarian than in incompetent authoritarian. They assume that there are no republicans left with any shot of getting a leadership roll in the party that are NOT anti-humanist authoritarian.
And as mentioned, it really does not help that this trick has been pulled on every GOP candidate since Bush Jr., and that's just the ones I have in living memory.
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Lib spaces, or left spaces? I feel like a fair few notable leftists (Moore, Zizek) didn't seem all that concerned about Trump--or at least, were not surprised.
Libs, specifically.
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Imagine this happens and they end up electing the House version of Lisa Murkowski. The MAGA types will go ballistic and it will be hilarious.
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C-SPAN reporting that there have been these kinds of talks behind the scenes between some members of both parties. All they would need is 218 people across both parties to coordinate on one person.
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This isn’t a new problem for the GOP in the house, I don’t believe- the last time they had a house majority, it took a while to pick a speaker.
For sure. I recall similar issues when the party eventually settled on Boehner and Ryan when they were Speaker. Although those issues were resolved before the actual election for Speaker.
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It’s just drama and competition. No reason why everything needs to be behind closed door.
I would prefer Jordan. There’s only anything real here if somehow they don’t have a gop speaker. Otherwise it’s just games. And the Dems uniting isn’t hard to explain at all. Their not the ones who need to pick a house leader.
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