zeke5123a
9mo ago
I think 67/33 doesn’t make sense but 60/40 seems right. If the polls corrected the Trump hate of 2016/20, then it seems like a close race with Trump with an edge. If they didn’t correct the bias, then Trump landslide. If they overcorrected, then Harris with an edge.
Hence 60/40
zeke5123a
9mo ago
It seems like it largely will get the Joke out of the news coupled with JD going on Rogan.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
You haven’t presented any evidence it is in fact cutting through. The democrats and their allied media are talking a bunch about it. But that doesn’t mean it’s cutting through. Indeed it could have the opposite effect (ie Puerto Ricans hear about it and realize a comedian made a joke yet the Dems think this is the end of the world).
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Biden did this on purpose. He has over the last month or so popped up at just the wrong time for Harris and said just the wrong thing. He is trying to sabotage her. No one is talking about her “closing statement.” Biden got what he wanted. As he said, no one fucks with a Biden.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
That transcript is not grammatically consistent. So it doesn’t make to assume that is what he meant.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
It’s funny — during the interview Trump basically admitted to bullshitting to make the story a bit better.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
They got Bruce Springsteen to perform at another rally. They got Willie Nelson to perform at the not Beyoncé concert. They are openly asking for Swift to perform at one of these rallies.
The reason Beyoncé didn’t perform is because Beyoncé didn’t want to perform. But Harris stupidly ran a bait and switch.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Trump has a certain impatience to him. He sees where Joe is going and then interrupts to give Trump’s view. I think that is a mistake.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Yeah it isn’t so far must watch interview but at the same time Trump comes across like a decent guy and clearly not mentally incompetent. My guess is this doesn’t have much of an impact but if anything it is a very small boost for Trump (eg maybe 5-10k votes). But if that small boost is in the right area it could be consequential.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
No I’m calling out your fake both sides here. You would generally hate anyone on the R side. But yet your post was basically “both candidates suck because they aren’t serious.” But when you peel the onion back a bit it isn’t the seriousness that you object to on the R side; it is the policies. Which of course that’s reasonable! But say that—don’t complain about candidate quality.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Sure. But RDS is that awesome and Harris is just that terrible. It seems your concern isn’t really about Trump; it is about Harris.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Then I don’t know what you are asking for. DeSantis is quite clearly an exceptional governor. He doesn’t just mouth certain positions but excels at running government and was tested under extreme pressures during covid era and came through with flying colors. He is pretty much the definition of “serious politician.” So if the complaint is “we don’t have serious politicians” why sour on DeSantis?
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Trump has been a bit inconsistent about tariffs. Sometimes he has talked about them being solely protectionist; other times he has talked about using them to force other countries to bring down their trade barriers (leading to less tariffs). I’m not sure where exactly he will come out.
He does care about manufacturing. The single best way for him to influence manufacturing is making energy cheap in America. He and Vance seems to support nuclear among others. He can directly help shepherd these things via EPA. Question is how quickly can you get these programs off the ground. The manufacturing jobs probably would t be during his term but the building of plants etc would be so he could point to an employment benefit to make the case for a Vance presidency.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
So when the same markets had Trump in the mid 40s to win…does your explanation still hold?
zeke5123a
9mo ago
I’m curious why you think Trump would damage American standing compared to Harris? Strikes me more that Trump would reduce American standing against fashionable Euros but fashionable euros aren’t the world
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Unexpected? Numerous polls have shown Trump recently +2 or +3. 40% chance seems about right. Not the favorite but far from unexpected.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Yarvin is wrong. The APA was in response to a growing administrative state and was an attempt to put safe guards on it. The biggest problem has been incredible deference to the administrative state ignoring the APA.
Loper Bright (and to a lesser extent Kisor) reduces some of that deference. The major questions doctrine reduces yet more. And the continued vitality of forcing administrative agencies to respond with real thoughts to comments shows the courts are finally taking the APA seriously.
zeke5123a
9mo ago
Only works if Trump gets to appoint some people. And what if they found there was in fact fraud? Then how does that heal the nation? Presumably Harris would need to resign, Biden appoint Trump as VP, and then Biden resign? But that would never happen.
Yeah agreed. To me polymarket seemed a bit too bullish on Trump. Again, I think Trump is the comfortable favorite but wouldn’t be shocking for Harris to win.
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