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So I understand the objection here and I want to be careful to answer it without coming off as zealous or irrational -- however, I also want to avoid "speaking past the sale" by accepting the premise that Trump has betrayed his supporters. I don't feel betrayed at all, and I know lots of friends who are fine with everything Trump has done. I also know lots of friends with concerns or objections although the modal response is more "dismay" than "betrayal".
And I understand that people like Tucker and Candace appear to outsiders like the biggest MAGA supporters of all now feeling betrayed -- but I have to tell you I hate these grifters and believe they've done immeasurable damage to conservatism in general and most Trump supporters have no deep well of love for any of these people. (I've hated Tucker for years, you might look through the archives and find me saying nice things about Alex Jones, but in general these people make it harder for us (us here, you and I) to understand each other.)
Trump is right about MAGA, it is all basically about Donald Trump. MAGA recognizes for better and worse that Trump created this political moment, even if not all of it poured out of his head fully-formed like Athena and he was taking advantage of currents that existed dormant in the population. However, basically, there is no vehicle but Trump right now. All these people who thought they could take advantage of Trump to sell their brands and then get off at their stop are confused. There was not actually a massive wave of support for Candace Owens or Tucker Carlson as such, there was a massive wave of support for these people as they were explainers of and conduits to Trump. This is also what happened to Marjorie Taylor Greene, who thought that she had some kind of independent political base she could use to play spoiler and extract concessions. (Oops.) Now that they've all turned on Trump, they've had to build out the new political vessel they call "America First". I believe Fuentes was the first to treat this as a distinct political category, so not everyone is using it to avoid the association, although it's comic anyways because it still comes from something Trump said first. So although it's a little more complicated maybe you see what I mean. The entire rising right wing is downstream of Donald Trump and now all these grifters want to excommunicate him from the church he created. MAGA sedevacantism?
Anyways I am describing the fact of loyalty to Trump and trying to describe what makes somebody like Tucker different from regular people who voted for Trump. (Tucker is especially bad because his texts from 2020 show that he claimed to have hated Trump all along and was hoping for him to lose.) But now I want to discuss the motivations of regular Trump voters briefly.
Within Trumpworld I think there is a lot of variance on how to interpret Iran.
It's true that Trump promised no new forever wars and peace. It's also true that Trump promised that Iran would never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. And he frequently threatens to bomb his enemies and use force when necessary. In a way this is like wanting to have your cake and eat it too. I think there's also a sense that because of Trump's unique focus on diplomacy and deals, it could have been possible for us to have our cake and eat it too. Guess not.
I know a lot of people who thought Trump would not start this war and are genuinely surprised. I also know a lot of people who thought this was contained within Trump's threats to bomb the mullahs, and are basically assuaged that nothing remarkable has happened. What's keeping a lid on everything for now is the idea that this war is supposed to be temporary and contained. We haven't committed to ten years of running Iran and so far America has basically won uninterrupted. Most of my friends who are against the war are hoping that this quietly goes away within a few months and we can focus on the midterms and everything will work out more or less ok. They don't really see this as a great betrayal so much as a great mistake that will detract from what they really care about (immigration and the economy).
For my part -- and I know that my perspective is unusual and therefore not representative but I will go on anyways: -- for my part I am in favor of war because I believe it increases Donald Trump's power to remake America in our image. I want Trump as Lincoln, Trump as FDR. I would basically be in favor of World War III. And I know what that entails and how things could go sideways and I believe that Trump is probably trying to achieve the same global reordering without getting as dramatic as that. But I don't feel betrayed by war in Iran because the simple act of going to war itself was never what I saw as the problem with Afghanistan or Iraq. To my mind the problems were that those wars were not really in America's interests, and that they were then badly-managed and ultimately lost. I don't think the same is true with Iran, I think restructuring the Middle East by dealing with the core problem of Iran is precisely in America's best interests. And I think, ultimately, when this war is done the long-distant future will understand this as one of the most important things Donald Trump ever did.
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