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Notes -
No peace deal with Iran
Can I just point out that 21 hours seems too short for negotiations? I don't think the talks were done in earnest, at all. The 150-page JCPOA took almost 2 years of frivolous negotiations and lasted just as long. A 21 hour session in the middle of an active conflict is not very likely to reach a better equilibrium that both parties are happy with. Iran carried bloodstained schoolbags of kids killed in the Minab strike on the flight to Pakistan, they were certainly not there to surrender. I suspect the administration (or at least Vance) already knew this, and deliberately structured one-sided terms intended to be rejected so Trump can attempt building political scaffolding for escalation and blame Iran ("Look, we offered Iran a peace deal and they chose not to accept it"). Meanwhile, the Israelis have been busy!
Between accepting one of the greatest strategic defeats in decades, and trying to prosecute a horrific war amidst historic energy and food prices, we remain stuck with the latter.
Why? These things are usually drawn out because America and Iran don’t negotiate directly and pass everything through intermediaries. And by Trump’s account they agreed essentially on every point except for the nuclear question. I don’t see why it would take longer than 21 hours to realize that, the idea that negotiating is this special activity that takes lots of expertise is a myth from the Georgetown school of foreign policy to promote the need for bureaucrat-scholars to run everything.
The leading theory on this forum a week ago was that Trump was losing so badly he would accept any peace deal as long as it was face-saving and he could declare victory. Not so?
America totally destroyed Iran’s military in a stunning lopsided victory. I’ve been told this was only a tactical victory because Iran now controls the straits and is using that as leverage, but, weirdly, Trump is now announcing a blockade of the straits himself. Perhaps America isn’t defeated?
I fear that denying this will have me marked as some kind of rabid Trump fanboy who can’t deal with reality but I have to point out that oil was much higher during the 2008 crisis, back when the same dollars were worth more.
I had to make an account to respond to you because I’ve seen your comments the past week. You do realize that this war is incredibly unpopular right? This war guarantees a Democratic wipeout unless in the next week or so Iran collapses and we avoid the economic fallout. So then we probably get an impeachment and the lamest of lame duck presidencies. So this way is a disaster for Trump, MAGA and the Republicans even if we’re winning the war. Plus Trump campaigned on no new wars and America First so he basically now has betrayed his biggest supporters.
Also, what would it take for you to admit this war was a mistake? If we don’t get regime change, they keep their proxies, and they keep their nuclear program, what was the point of this war? What did we win? They now have more leverage than before because they can tank the world economy any time they want.
Based
I don’t care. My theory is operating at a much higher level than the midterms. We’re talking about global power and America controlling the world’s key infrastructure and nuclear weapons and Donald Trump’s heroic memory in the body politic. I don’t care if Charlemagne loses the midterms or Martin Luther gets impeached.
I don’t think Trump cares either. At least, among his many priorities, solving Iran and the Middle East comes before we pivot to the midterms. Ideally this is wrapped up by then. If not it’s still worth doing.
When did Trump betray me? I’m in favor of all of this. The Iran War is part of America First because it is building a generational victory where America is undisputed hegemon of the world.
I understand that many of Trump’s supporters are dismayed or skeptical. Most of my friends are. I’ve called them all panicans, to their faces.
The proxies we destroyed? The nuke program we destroyed?
Well no, it turns out they can’t. But we can.
I'm going to assume you have the theory of mind to understand how Trump betrayed many of his supporters by claiming he was anti war in the middle east and then going into the middle east, even if you are personally pro war so what is the point of this?
And it's not like they're just no name people, some of the top conservative influencers like Tucker Carlson or Candace Owens or Alex Jones have been targeted and effectively kicked out of MAGA for wanting Trump to do what he said and get out of the middle east.
So I understand the objection here and I want to be careful to answer it without coming off as zealous or irrational -- however, I also want to avoid "speaking past the sale" by accepting the premise that Trump has betrayed his supporters. I don't feel betrayed at all, and I know lots of friends who are fine with everything Trump has done. I also know lots of friends with concerns or objections although the modal response is more "dismay" than "betrayal".
And I understand that people like Tucker and Candace appear to outsiders like the biggest MAGA supporters of all now feeling betrayed -- but I have to tell you I hate these grifters and believe they've done immeasurable damage to conservatism in general and most Trump supporters have no deep well of love for any of these people. (I've hated Tucker for years, you might look through the archives and find me saying nice things about Alex Jones, but in general these people make it harder for us (us here, you and I) to understand each other.)
Trump is right about MAGA, it is all basically about Donald Trump. MAGA recognizes for better and worse that Trump created this political moment, even if not all of it poured out of his head fully-formed like Athena and he was taking advantage of currents that existed dormant in the population. However, basically, there is no vehicle but Trump right now. All these people who thought they could take advantage of Trump to sell their brands and then get off at their stop are confused. There was not actually a massive wave of support for Candace Owens or Tucker Carlson as such, there was a massive wave of support for these people as they were explainers of and conduits to Trump. This is also what happened to Marjorie Taylor Greene, who thought that she had some kind of independent political base she could use to play spoiler and extract concessions. (Oops.) Now that they've all turned on Trump, they've had to build out the new political vessel they call "America First". I believe Fuentes was the first to treat this as a distinct political category, so not everyone is using it to avoid the association, although it's comic anyways because it still comes from something Trump said first. So although it's a little more complicated maybe you see what I mean. The entire rising right wing is downstream of Donald Trump and now all these grifters want to excommunicate him from the church he created. MAGA sedevacantism?
Anyways I am describing the fact of loyalty to Trump and trying to describe what makes somebody like Tucker different from regular people who voted for Trump. (Tucker is especially bad because his texts from 2020 show that he claimed to have hated Trump all along and was hoping for him to lose.) But now I want to discuss the motivations of regular Trump voters briefly.
Within Trumpworld I think there is a lot of variance on how to interpret Iran.
It's true that Trump promised no new forever wars and peace. It's also true that Trump promised that Iran would never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. And he frequently threatens to bomb his enemies and use force when necessary. In a way this is like wanting to have your cake and eat it too. I think there's also a sense that because of Trump's unique focus on diplomacy and deals, it could have been possible for us to have our cake and eat it too. Guess not.
I know a lot of people who thought Trump would not start this war and are genuinely surprised. I also know a lot of people who thought this was contained within Trump's threats to bomb the mullahs, and are basically assuaged that nothing remarkable has happened. What's keeping a lid on everything for now is the idea that this war is supposed to be temporary and contained. We haven't committed to ten years of running Iran and so far America has basically won uninterrupted. Most of my friends who are against the war are hoping that this quietly goes away within a few months and we can focus on the midterms and everything will work out more or less ok. They don't really see this as a great betrayal so much as a great mistake that will detract from what they really care about (immigration and the economy).
For my part -- and I know that my perspective is unusual and therefore not representative but I will go on anyways: -- for my part I am in favor of war because I believe it increases Donald Trump's power to remake America in our image. I want Trump as Lincoln, Trump as FDR. I would basically be in favor of World War III. And I know what that entails and how things could go sideways and I believe that Trump is probably trying to achieve the same global reordering without getting as dramatic as that. But I don't feel betrayed by war in Iran because the simple act of going to war itself was never what I saw as the problem with Afghanistan or Iraq. To my mind the problems were that those wars were not really in America's interests, and that they were then badly-managed and ultimately lost. I don't think the same is true with Iran, I think restructuring the Middle East by dealing with the core problem of Iran is precisely in America's best interests. And I think, ultimately, when this war is done the long-distant future will understand this as one of the most important things Donald Trump ever did.
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