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User ID: 3534
My hypothesis is that a guy, for whom there has yet to be produced a single piece of evidence that he expressed an opinion on either Trump or Biden in any direction (before or after the shooting, via manifesto or the like) who didn’t just search for Biden, but specifically both Biden and Trump campaign stops in relation to their distance from his residence, picked Trump as his target for assassination, because Trump’s campaign stop in PA was indeed the closest to his residence made by either candidate.
Yes.
I strongly suspect if Biden had made an announced, scheduled public appearance closer to Bethel Park, PA than Trump did, that Biden would have been the target.
As opposed to what other evidence, including any Crooks had expressed about politics? With what evidence we have, depressed loser who came to prefer infamy to life seems as probable as any hypothesis.
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24d ago
Thomas Mathew Crooks’ computer had search results for both Trump and Biden campaign stops, presumably to see which would occur nearer to Crooks, and Trump was the unlucky recipient of that horrid game of chance (and, even more so, the now-deceased Corey Comperatore).
I’m guessing on Earth Beta, Crooks is still a nihilistic malcontent who takes a shot at whichever candidate forces him to spend the least amount of time in the car so he can make national news and have his posthumous 15-minutes of fame.
Unless they don’t have social media and irony poisoning on Earth Beta, then Crooks eventually dies alone in anonymity.
…the same way HBO shows are more popular than the broadcast ones that can't show tits and guts and incest…
It’s hard to compare broadcast-network show ratings to HBO’s because the latter likes to report both live and on-demand as a single number (and you also have to take streamers at their word to a larger extent). But, the biggest broadcast-network scripted series are pulling between three and four million live-viewers for average, mid-season episodes. One just isn’t going to read or hear much about Tracker, and every NCIS and emergency-services genre spin-off because they aren’t made for an audience that does much reading, writing or podcasting.
There’s also — in-between the aforementioned — the very popular offerings of Taylor Sheridan’s middlebrow Boomer-crack ouvre on cable. These shows can get a little grittier, but there’s still nothing approaching incest, and the nudity is capped at the occasional glance of buttocks.
”I’m the Landman! I’m here to tell people younger than 60 how the world really is! I’m tough but fair!”
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30d ago
It goes hand in hand with discipline and frugality, but a level of income such that relatively-unexpected expenses are not a great source of stress will significantly improve your quality of life.
Do you have enough in an HSA to cover your health and dental insurance deductibles? Do you have enough in savings to replace your washer and dryer if they conk out? Specifics will vary for different people, but the general idea stands.
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1mo ago
On a tangent, the EPA kind-of expects some of this at scale, and requires environmental standby trusts. While Noxious Chemical Co., Inc. is operating its plant making substances that for-the-love-of-God will hopefully never leak out, it has to put money aside in a trust that it can’t unilaterally withdraw without the EPA’s joint consent.
This way, if there’s a catastrophic explosion loosing horrid material at its plant, Noxious Chemical Co. can’t just file Chapter 7 and leave the rest of society solely responsible for the cost of cleanup.
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1mo ago
A lot of those communities were pretty left-wing and peace-minded and I don't know to what extent that position changed after the massacres.
The violence of the Second Intifada wiped out the electoral-viability of Israel’s left. I would be surprised if issuance of work permits resumes anytime in the near future.
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1mo ago
I was raised ELCA. My best friend from high school is now an LCMS pastor, and my wife was raised WELS.
I don’t think the ELCA is quite what’s described above. The Lutherans, even the ELCA, at least started from a comparably-confident theology. The ELCA still includes the Book of Concord as one of its guiding texts and creeds. And the ELCA still holds the most stereotypical Lutheran theological belief: real presence (say it with me: “IS MEANS IS!”).
My wife and I are church shopping and are having a heck of a time. We both feel too conservative for liberal churches and too liberal for conservative churches.
One really sad thing is that there are cultural trends not inherently and inseparably wed to any theological difference that shape liberal and conservative Protestant denominations.
Namely, the median conservative Protestant (and not just Lutheran) church uses contemporary worship music that, for us, turns a Sunday into an aesthetic ordeal.
And particularly so having been raised Lutheran. Bach, Handel and Mendelssohn were all devout. Some of Bach’s works are deliberately Protestant in composition, designed to allow his congregation to sing simple lines that combine to create complex harmonies. Per capita, Lutherans are the undisputed champions of worship music.
Which is why the number of acoustic guitars and tambourines found in LCMS churches hurts.
The WELS are one of the rare exceptions, anywhere in American Protestantism, of very conservative churches who still insist upon traditional worship music. It remains as a part of their insularity. Also as they’re not on trend as a conservative Protestant church, their numbers are declining.
Conversely, and even aside from theological disagreements, the depth of theology found in the sermons of ELCA (and other liberal mainline churches) sermons, in the aggregate, is wanting. I agree it is wonderful God sent Christ to die for our sins, and that I should be kind to others. Hearing not too much more than that in almost every sermon doesn’t really help me, as a layman, grow in my faith.
My wife is a hard no on returning to the WELS, as the church she grew up in dealt… less than honestly… with one of her elderly relatives in convincing the latter to make a sizable bequest. She also attended a private WELS school which didn’t prohibit non-WELS children from attending, as this is a big source of revenue for the WELS. A high school classmate and friend of hers who wasn’t WELS died, suddenly, of a heart problem. And her school pulled all its students together to remind them they were not to pray at the subsequent funeral.
The LCMS (and even the smaller LCMC which sits ideologically in between the LCMS and ELCA) churches in our area all make use of drum sets, guitars and keyboards. Plus we both disagree with the LCMS on young-earth creationism.
And our local ELCA churches have followed the national organization’s postmodern, progressive tendencies, and offer shallow, redundant services.
We’ve branched out and are currently, desperately searching for a church among other Protestant denominations, even if it is an outlier in relation to the views of its national organization, that has traditional music and theological depth in its sermons.
We were very impressed by the pastor at a PCA church we visited, but infinitely less-so by the cajón behind him. And, there were no bibles in the pews at this church — some things even if we leave for another denomination, having been both raised Lutheran, we just can’t accept.
The search goes on…
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1mo ago
Non-proper noun, that’s a claim of adherence to basic, fundamental Christian beliefs; not membership in a proper-noun Orthodox church.
I guess if you wanted to grill him, you could ask whether or not he believes in the Apostles’ Creed, and whether or not he believes the filioque clause belongs in the Nicene Creed.
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1mo ago
I going to say, 99.9% joking, that Thiel may be WELS-Lutheran. My wife was raised in the WELS, and the latter believe that — not the individual — but the seat of the Pope is the Antichrist.
(The WELS are also exceedingly unecumenical, and are instructed not to pray with anyone outside their synod.)
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1mo ago
That’s fair and I should have specified potentially incoming.
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1mo ago
How would, or would you at all, add a differentiation between the state and private organizations pursuing the above?
I would suggest including the practice of jaw boning as an action that is considered done by the state, where a threat from the state suffices. Examples: (1) the Biden administration motivating multiple social media companies — ostensibly competitors — into all suspending the New York Post’s accounts on their platforms within short order of one another, in response to the Post publishing the Hunter Biden laptop story, and (2) the Trump Administration motivating the owners of large numbers of ABC broadcast affiliate stations to pressure the network to bring Kimmel to heel.
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5mo ago
Your hypothesis is that we were close to civil war in the late 60s/early 70s? Disagree. Most young people weren’t hippies, let alone militant radicals. In the book Days of Rage it’s noted most NYers regarded the large number of bombings of mostly empty buildings as nuisances. The crazies can’t do it on their own.
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5mo ago
I cannot see most of the events you mentioned causing a civil war. If the J6ers had stopped the certification of the vote, kidnapped some congressmen, etc. that would rank the most probable. And they didn’t. The Zizians? What societal fault lines are the Zizians setting in motion? Who is calling for armed rebellion to avenge the landlord they killed?
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6mo ago
That’s a great reference. ❤️
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6mo ago
You get the feeling that, as a public company, if they could have moderated their greed, tempered it a bit, they might have gotten away with everything, albeit at a lesser scale in the second phase. But that tragic flaw brought them to that point and they couldn’t change.
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6mo ago
Just finished Misbelief by Dan Ariely. He was brought in to consult the government during lockdowns on how best to encourage mask wearing and how to boost engagement with remote learning, but played no part in the decision to require masks or close schools.
Conspiracy theorists on the internet became convinced he was one of the evil masterminds behind the plandemic. He reached out and engaged with several and wrote a book about it. One interesting insight was that if someone gets deep into a conspiracy theory — to the point it causes them to become ostracized by their family and (former) friends — it is exceedingly hard to pull them out of the conspiracy, as their new social circle consists of other people who have experienced the same, and they don’t want to go through a second social death.
The people sending Ariely death threats, were to his surprise, quite supportive of one another in their Telegram chat groups. One, after lengthy one-on-one communication, conceded he realized Ariely was not an evil power broker, but acknowledged he could not say so lest he lose the only social circle he had left.
Currently reading Moss Hart’s autobiography Act One after it was highly praised in both Graydon Carter’s memoir and a recent New York Magazine article on the history of Broadway. The rags to riches story has been quite good so far, blending an interesting memoir with insights into acting, directing, playwrighting and the theater business, living up to the hype.
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6mo ago
I’ve read this. I love non-fiction tales of financial crimes, and this is a favorite. I found how the fraud inverted over time particularly interesting.
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6mo ago
Willa Cather’s Death Comes for the Archbishop.
Historical fiction executed as a combination of agape and western, told episodically, with gorgeous descriptions of the landscape and humanity. I recommend it specifically because the tale of the lives of two French, Catholic priests sent to New Mexico, unfolding over decades, is not something I would predict I would enjoy, but was more than pleasantly surprised I did.
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6mo ago
In terms of slop, I’m surprised Amazon hasn’t cracked down on AI-generated knockoff scams. I recently purchased Graydon Carter’s new memoir, and in searching for “Graydon Carter memoir”, the first result returned was the actual hardcover, When the Going Was Good: An Editor’s Adventures During the Last Golden Age of Magazines.
Then, the AI-generated paperbacks and e-books immediately followed: Graydon Carter Memoir 2025: From the Golden Age of Mazines to the Digital…, Graydon Carter Memoir 2025: When the Going Was Grand, Graydon Carter Memoir: When the Going Was Perfect, Graydon Carter: The Biography…
Perhaps Amazon is just dealing with a game of whack-a-mole, or maybe they don’t really care?
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6mo ago
Looking at mass-death events from 800 to 1850 it’s within the realm of possibility the Mongol invasion killed enough people to infinitesimally lower CO2 levels. The second claim is based on genetic testing , coupled with some historical presentism regrading how consensual were the Kahn’s harems and concubines. Third claim amply addressed by other replies.
Will it be “post-modern corrosion” or will it be time? Genghis Khan Is believed to (1) have caused the deaths of enough people to slightly alter climate, and (2) have been the most-prolific rapist of which we are aware. And, currently, there are a couple of restaurant chains named after him here in America.
I once saw an inflatable, bounce-house type slide made to look like the Titanic. Kids would slide down the tilted deck, onto a landing area made to look like the sea. Fifteen hundred people died in the actual tragedy.
There is typically a loosening of taboo once knowledge of horrible events passes out of living memory. Are those around WW2 going to be different?
(West is certainly, dementedly ahead of the curve, here.)
I think draft coverage can often underplay how much destination matters.* He’s got his work cut out for him amid the mess that is Cleveland. Though, the current reporting suggests Watson has likely played his last snap for the Browns. Flacco is 40. And, if Sanders is, as his boosters suggest, much better than Gabriel, then there is as clear a path for him as any fifth round pick could hope.
*How good is Sam Darnold? I know KOC has friends in San Fran from the same coaching family-tree that spoke highly of Darnold’s growth while backing up Purdy in 2023. But Minnesota is about as ideal a situation as any quarterback could hope with Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson as it’s top three targets, an above average line, one of the best left tackles (though injury cut short Darrisaw’s season), and a head coach that ascended the quarterbacks coach->passing game coordinator->offensive coordinator ladder. Cousins looked terrible his first year removed. Interested to see how Darnold does in Seattle. With JSN’s breakout last year, Darnold has a legit no. 1. Hopefully Kupp can stay on the field. After that the targets look serviceable…
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6mo ago
It’s the skilled expression of the author’s own voice. I can’t be of much help, in the same way Potter Stewart’s 1964 definition of obscenity — "I know it when I see it." — doesn’t help anyone who isn’t Potter Stewart.
Stephen Fry recounted heavily cribbing, paradoxically, from Hemingway and Wilde, and being worried he had no real style of his own. He was then delighted when a classmate sussed out Fry had written an unsigned editorial in the school paper, telling Fry there wasn’t anyone else who could have written it.
Wolfe has a section early in Back to Blood where the slapping of a boat’s hull on waves rhythmically and unrelentingly interrupts his prose. It, specifically, was panned in a couple reviews I encountered. It made me nauseous to read; I thought it wonderful. It works for Wolfe, or it works from him.
In my own writing, elsewhere, I definitely suffer from imposter’s syndrome. Dorothy Parker, in her short story The Custard Heart compares a woman to a painting that looks impressive at a distance but less so upon close inspection. Parker does this in the same paragraph where she employs what starts out as a quatrain, but continues on for a line too long and unravels. It was delightful to read. If I had typed it out myself, I would dismiss it as a cheap gimmick.
And, what works for Fry, Wolfe and Parker is not entirely interchangeable.
I think it’s quite the opposite, and in terms of non-ideologues, physician heal thyself.
Crooks wasn’t political. He didn’t post about politics. No one who knew him described him as political.
Tyler Robinson? Sophie/Nicholas Roske? Joshua Jain? Luigi Magione? Etc. Etc. Etc. — We have messages on shell casings, manifestos, social media posts, text messages, and interviews with acquaintances that all confirm motive, or even at a minimum a basic political leaning in the opposite direction of their target. Where is anything like that for Crooks?
You’re asserting he was looking up the distance of Trump appearances to his house for a different reason than doing the same for Biden — there’s nothing pro or anti Trump or Biden from Crooks that’s been credibly reported or discovered that he voiced prior to setting out to assassinate his target. Where’s anything as small as following a campaign account?
On the contrary, absent any of the usual evidence we have accompanying political violence, the response to Crooks reminds me of the immediate response to Jared Lee Loughner — that he shot Gabby Giffords was treated as evidence enough, alone, that his motivations were political. The press made the assertion, blamed a Sarah Palin mailer, tried to find anything that could link him to the right, broadly, and came up blank.
Give me the bare minimum that the press couldn’t on Loughner. As small as one high school classmate of Crooks’ that said he watched Hasan Piker Twitch streams. Anything.
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