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Notes -
So the war is (at least temporarily) over.
No one, myself included, fully believed Hamas was going to actually hand over the live hostages until they did so. They are now withholding the dead ones, which is more typical.
The joy about the hostages' release was obviously mixed with other feelings, hence Israeli social media being full of posts commemorating the dead, and Israeli talk in the streets full of mourning the release of terrorists and the inevitable encouraging of more kidnappings (an attempt at kidnapping was foiled the day before).
Still, there was a lot of joy to be had.
As for the long term repercussions of these two years of war... No one knows yet, obviously.
One thing I am somewhat curious to see is what happens with Gazans getting work permits to enter Israel — before the war that was a thing (thousands of permits and millions of dollars in wages), but in the wake of the revelation that they then gave maps of the places they visited to Hamas (in fairness — they were probably being threatened by Hamas if they didn't) I don't know if the communities surrounding Gaza will be willing to allow it again. A lot of those communities were pretty left-wing and peace-minded and I don't know to what extent that position changed after the massacres.
Also before the war the government was pursuing a strategy of "surely with enough money Hamas will just focus on governing" hence the (in Israeli terms) scandal over how much money Netanyahu was giving them from Qatar. I think the dream of them being pacified with money is pretty thoroughly dead on the Israeli side these days, and that might also affect the work permit equation.
West Bank Palestinians have been having a lot more difficulty getting entry permits since the war as well, I actually do expect that to ease up pretty significantly now, especially if things stay calm for like, a month. I hope I'm right about that.
A lot of I/P coexistence initiatives went into hibernation mode after the outbreak of the war. They had already started to come back before this ceasefire — I went to one a few months ago, a meeting of West Bank Palestinians and Israelis in a relatively more safe area of the West Bank (so Palestinians could get to it without needing entry permits and Israelis would be less scared of going than if it was held in other areas of the West Bank). I feel like that meetup is probably worth a separate post (it was fascinating) but in any case I do expect the coexistence initiatives to start doing a lot better if the sort-of peace also sort-of holds. The veterans of those groups say they're used to these kinds of ebbs and flows.
I am skeptical we get a break from the decades of missiles from Gaza because of the ostensible ceasefire — that hasn't been the case in all previous "ceasefires", so if it happened it would be a sign something is actually different about this one.
We're due an election in a year but historically Israel very very very rarely (aka: it happened one time) makes it all the way to the actual official due date instead of calling early elections. So we'll probably get one soon.
Anyway. For now it's "wait and see". I'm not optimistic about the summit in Egypt leading to any real change but I truly would love to be proven wrong and something good happens for once. And whatever the future holds, in the moment, right now, I am really happy that the last two years are over.
The violence of the Second Intifada wiped out the electoral-viability of Israel’s left. I would be surprised if issuance of work permits resumes anytime in the near future.
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