dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
No bio...
User ID: 583
But they ended up with this ridiculous result and no one is convinced.
I thought he convinced a panel of judges?
Fat Tony is a heuristic. If you have no ability to ask any other questions or investigate yourself or don't have the time to check, it's pretty good. But it's not an irrefutable argument.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
12hr ago
Eh, I'm pretty sure the endgame is a handful of hive intelligences and the only distinction an individual human offers is a very particular set of high level value inputs.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
13hr ago
Locally it made what I wanted to say clearer, in those 5% of places where I was just struggling, for the benefit of the reader.
Globally it gave the AI hysterical a small piece to bite off and choke on and cause a scene.
So it was a loss.
Clearly next time I need to run it through Pangram and iterate until I score 0. Until mid 2027 when it won't matter anymore aside from a few neo-Luddite corners.
I'm also aware of the Root Claim debate which I've encountered as a wall of text and like 30 hours of videos. I'd love an explanation of why this debate matters, but my tendency is to dismiss it as a gish gallop.
I think the reason it matters is because COVID origin skeptics find stories that sound good to them and they stop there, while the guy who won that first root claim debate didn't suffer from Too Good to Check and exhaustively investigated them and found they were nothingburgers.
(I'm saying why they matter, not that I've weighed the arguments. I'm too burnt out on COVID to read about it anymore)
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1d ago
I presume you meant to say TRT? HRT is to fix female problems.
Men that want to be more womanly go on HRT, e.g. trans.
Men that want to be more manly go on TRT.
I clearly failed to estimate how triggered the world is on this topic. The essay was about an LLM driven rewrite of a software module btw. Should not be controversial.
Am I going to stop using AI assistance? No. I'm just going to do a better job of concealing it next time.
Nothing has been gained. In software it's mostly accepted in professional circles that AI was used. In writing people are still trying to resist ✊🏻
I'm fairly butthurt on this topic because while I think AI writing is not better than the best humans at writing, at the moment, it can at least get the point across.
I wrote an essay a few months ago that took about 4 days. I had 2 human friends review it. I made sure to handle drive by criticisms and anticipate other objections.
Some parts of my essay didn't flow nicely so I asked Claude for a suggestion on those. In some places I did use Claude's suggestion, verbatim. This had an obvious AI tell but it was genuinely better than the way I phrased it. Nevertheless 95% of the essay was my artisan human typing.
Boom, essay ruined. Some anti slop warrior came by and accused me of having no respect for the people who have to read it, derailing the conversation
The only reason I even used Claude is because I was trying to produce a serious work and I didn't have an editor handy. Fuck me.
Anyway, I understand people are irked by completely phoned in comments or articles or emails but the AI detectives are their own online cancer.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
1d ago
I walked into a barber shop in Pittsburgh once. I was the only non-black person. There was a group there just hanging out. They paused their conversation for like 3 minutes after I sat down and then got back to it.
The levels of shooting the shit they were doing was unmatched. I wish I could say more but I ... didn't even understand what they were talking about(??)
All of the other times I've been to a barber shop I only end up talking to the barber, they're usually pretty empty.
I tried wandering into the barber shop by my house and they asked me to make an appointment. Like what. An appointment for a place with a barber pole outside? Wack.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
2d ago
How about an AI greentext?
>be anon
>dunk on shrimp welfare guy
>he replies "ok what's your framework"
>don't have one
>get one just to win the argument
>now I have a framework
>framework says I should donate more
>mfw I got mogged into tithing by shrimp
I'm just going to pretend the book review was posted as the OP instead.
For Americans and others only accustomed to for-profit care encountering this for the first time, the experience can feel vertiginous, like you’ve stepped into a film about the Soviet Union, except the doctors speak English and the building has running water. I do suspect there’s less phage therapy and more tea involved.
I've had this experience. It reminded me of being in public school. Everyone working there looks tired, the guy with almost debilitating tourettes is a security guard, the whole building is the color of oxidized beige computer hardware and maybe you can smell mold that experts have decided was totally nothing to worry about.
Was the Soviet Union like this?
Buying a bigger and better house in a nicer neighborhood, replacing anything that works okay but isn't perfect, paying for delivery instead of picking it up even when it's just 5 minutes of extra errand, furniture that matches, throwing away anything I haven't touched in a year.
The most audacious thing I did was having a matcha latte delivered to me by DoorDash when I was watching my kids at a playground.
It's still pretty hard. Money doesn't buy that much happiness.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
2d ago
I'm much more interested in living it up lately but I think it's better explained by my P(doom) being at 0.1 than going on a GLP-1
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
3d ago
I was getting a colonoscopy the other day and right as the probe entered me and I saw how challenging it was for the doctor and nurses to get it up all of the way I thought "this job is safe from automation, robots won't be able to do this until like, 2030 at least"
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
6d ago
What aren't you good at?
Definitely making shakshouka this weekend!
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
7d ago
Elon is coming out in favor of Dario and it doesn't seem to matter? The e/acc types are ignoring their God and safetyism still codes left anyway.
I wonder if more safety types should conspicuously come out for Trump or if the issue is memetically poisoned by now.
Altman and others have tried appealing to Trump's vanity by proposing he win a Nobel prize if he negotiates the best Deal with China. He would absolutely deserve one. The only hard part is convincing the Nobel people I suppose.
I note that early groundwork for such a deal requires convincing China we plan to beat them in the arms race. A dose of copium perhaps.
I like your thesis but I would like to quibble with something else.
So I think for many it is shocking to see that both the legal system and a decently large group of women seem to be able to excuse this
Maybe I live under a rock, but I've only seen TheMotte and X (because that's where I hang out) claim women are excusing this. Does excusing mean they buy the postpartum psychosis story? Is this that widespread? Where? I worry we're reacting to especially crazy online women and fairly normal women are like "LC be guilty".
(I do think MA law is peculiar enough that if you apply it strictly enough Clancy had a strong case, and that's probably more MA's fault than women in the jury, but I don't expect most supporters to argue these points)
He had no legal expectation of privacy to begin with. But yes it's very chilling to harass a juror over giving the wrong verdict.
Also maybe raising $109k$175k in a GoFundMe will be enough consolation for the next holdout jurors.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10d ago
I think he was up shit's creek anyway once they pulled FTX Bahamas into the US but all of that other stuff didn't help either.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10d ago
In this case the carpenter decided to also be an electrician and plumber and mason and the house burned down because her psycho boyfriend, who owned the house, was tapping the gas line for his craft brewery down the street.
It's probably fine if she sticks to carpentry.
Somewhat related but I was thinking the other day about how a lot of EA people have gotten obscenely wealthy but none of the EA problems really got solved. Shouldn’t bed nets in Africa be fully funded by now?
I think bednets are in fact fully funded and they try investing elsewhere now I misremembered, the marginal bednet today is lower impact than the average bednet. Still worth funding but the bang for the buck isn't as high as it used to be.
I think the central premise of EA charity is wrong. You can’t save lives on the cheap. Many problems are intractable and can’t be solved by just giving money. You actually have to be in the trenches. Giving money to charities is mostly just waste.
Part of moving the needle in Africa or other hell holes is figuring out where to allocate the money so it doesn't get immediately embezzled and also doesn't contribute to poverty trap issues. This isn't just a throw money at it problem. Indeed, part of why DOGE gutting USAID hurt so much is because EA relied on some of this existing infrastructure. Aside from funding odd trans art in Ecuador here and there, and for being a vector for soft power in foreign policy, it also helped make aid auditable. USAID paid for the census data, the logistics chain, and the in-country people who notice when money goes missing, which is exactly the infrastructure GiveWell can't do itself.
I had actually interviewed for a job with SBF and realized I was simultaneously interviewing for a job at three companies at once: Alameda, FTX and some crypto product. I had a decade of quant finance experience at that point and I was talking to a bunch of kids with like, 2. I won't say I predicted they were up to the shenanigans they were but that they had people at the top stepping between companies so casually struck me as conflicted and I didn't continue. These kids felt in over their head and I didn't want to be part of the shit show.
Anyway, the optics are bad but if you ignore them Ellison is probably a decent employee. She did pass a Jane Street interview and left them to pursue Alameda; she would probably be good at most technical jobs. She probably comes cheap given how radioactive she is otherwise. On paper, if you ignore the optics, she's probably a bargain.
Did she fuck up? Oh sure. She should have done more to pump the brakes on bad record keeping practices but that's incompatible with the move fast break things model SBF was pushing. The fact that they had a romantic relationship would also compromise her.
Red flags abounds but that's not something I expect most people to navigate well. Iln most industries what she did doesn't even matter but in quant finance you need a large compliance team and you need to check with them every time you take a shit. I am not surprised they didn't grow this out in 18 months and racked up process crimes left and right because building cool shit was more fun than meeting with the compliance team[1]
I'm looking forward to more drama though. Austin doesn't strike me as a lunatic but the way he writes about her reeks a bit romantic. Oh no!
- SBF also did some blatantly criminal things but a lot of why they imploded was confused record keeping and a lot of why he got such a severe sentence was because US courts pulled FTX Bahamas into US jurisdiction. You don't build FTX Bahamas because you are trying to follow US law and handle US money; they had FTX.US for that and they were solvent and weren't taking the same risks.
In practice, the issue seemed to be mostly framed in terms of identity politics, along the lines of “mistrial caused by obstinate man who refused to listen to reasonable majority of mostly women”. Substitute “black man” and “white women” and this loses its cachet: suddenly it reads like a proud person of color bravely standing up against a group of Karens trying to browbeat him into submission.
I'm surprised at which side of the culture war this falls on. Alternate incendiary explanations: black guy was too dumb/lawless to understand that his purpose on the jury was to apply the particular oddities of MA law when it comes to insanity and instead just nullified the law?
If Xitter can have an endless circle jerk about how online white women are making sexual bigoted arguments for why women should be treated like infants because of their hormones, why can't they also make racial bigot arguments for why black people can't weigh complex topics in a jury box? The white people upheld law and order. The black guy went with his gut.
Since we're rehashing the case, do see Throwaway05's comment from the other week:
- A common response to the media conversation around this case is to criticize women for brainless takes that do not engage with the information about the case or expert commentary. This includes me, I've been frustrated.
- It seems like actual experts in this field are landing on a psychotic process (most likely postpartum psychosis) as the explanation of events. That is to say she is legitimately not guilty by reason of insanity. This moved the needle for me. How can I criticize women for being retarded and not listening to actual information if I don't listen to experts and people with specific knowledge of the case.
- As a legal matter, it sounds like the expectation from knowledgable parties has been a hung jury or not guilty by reason of insanity because of structural, jurisdiction specific aspects of this type of defense in MA.
As a legal matter, a dumb juror might just well say "fuck all that shit I'm not letting you use a bunch of fancy words to try to trick me into saying that bitch walks"
I don't believe this myself. I'm not sure what I believe. I barely followed this case. But the culture war spectacle around it is fascinating.
Hey I don't want to begrudge you your beliefs but I think you'd find the LessWrong umbrella of subcultures to be much more receptive to Fat Tony arguments than most intellectual communities. It's almost our defining feature.
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