BANNED USER: /comment/480529
>Unban in 6d 19h 57m
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
Tell me about it.
User ID: 745
Banned by: @netstack
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
15hr ago
How many software engineers [or others directly threatened by AI]
You think I meant job displacement? I meant actual scares. I mean loyal Trumpists going full Alex Jones when they realize the Skynet is coming. It would be pretty easy to scare people into Luddism, to the extent that it overpowers current partisan split (not entirely, of course, but moving it by 10% or so).
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
17hr ago
I guess I'm just optimistic about the US. People call me a China shill, but the US has too many capable people in too many well-resourced companies (not clear how they'll cope with Frontier Labs trying to eat them, but the state may prefer them non-eaten and that could be decisive). Even the government is not entirely inept (at least it's more capable than EU governments, Russia, LatAm, most of the rest of the world). In particular, the US is excellent at kicking the can down the road (ballooning debt is a case in point). AI productivity gains might turbocharge this capability, and indeed this seems to be explicitly the plan – Bessent proposes just growing out of the debt, and growth is all about AI now. So, the system will receive generous injections of surplus energy to deal with overhangs, as you call it.
Whether this will be enough to compensate for new sources of entropy, and whether that compensation will take the form of a broadly tolerable American way of life plus AI upgrades or a Palantircore dystopia with UBI, this I admit I don't know. But I wouldn't bet on some societal collapse that exceeds the costs of another culture war conflagration. Betting against the US is, historically, a fool's errand.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
17hr ago
Robots with non-local power are only useful in factory settings. We also have them.
I don't agree. I'm a robot with non-local power myself, in a sense – I need to use a network-connected smartphone to navigate an unfamiliar environment. This is the general human condition now. Suppose Optimus has an always-on Starlink connection. Does it matter if it's "not entirely here"? I guess it matters for the robot revolution part, because Elon will have a way to shut it down (if he cares). But practically, it seems to be the inevitable compromise.
but a brief look makes me think this is exactly the sort of thing that RL game playing is good at, and learning general game-playing strategies in training would generalize pretty well to this
This genre of dismissals is fair enough but getting vacuous. What doesn't "RL game playing", at enough scale and diversity, generalize well to? ARC-3 was supposed to measure genuine cognitive fluidity. There is a number of papers showing that reasoning RLVR, even extremely impoverished (literally GSM8K/HumanEval maxxing, like in first generation R1), generalizes to very distant tasks like creative writing, because they involve similar reasoning primitives/motifs (backtracking, self-checking, enumerating options etc). We've actually first seen this principle with, like, InstructGPT, pretraining on more code + RL on code = smarter model across the board, because code entrains some helpful cognitive patterns. RLVR on more complex multimodal tasks will generalize better.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
19hr ago
It's permanent, the US can expand with Denmark's permission, and they can deny foreign expansion without Denmark's say so.
Was Denmark, in practice, ever going to allow "foreign expansion" in Greenland? I get that the MAGA narrative is how Denmark is an Islamist communist shithole and deeply infiltrated by the CCP (probably way less infiltrated than Washington DC), but if memory serves, they always permitted the US to treat Greenland as its exclusive military outpost.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
19hr ago
ChatGPT Astra is meaningfully better than Sol. I of course agree it's still disgusting. It's also nice news for me because literally Fields Medal winners are getting automation anxiety before I have to worry about competition in bespoke shitposts.
The issue with writing style is that they're not built to write for humans. These are agents. The process by which they output almost every given token over their training is getting rewarded conditional on its contribution to the final outcome of a programming (or programming-shaped) task.
Be thankful you don't have to deal with raw CoTs (unreadable now).
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
19hr ago
but the US develops and even IOCs entire weapons systems in secret SAPs
These munitions that allies are now NOT getting have no relation to what you talk about. I do not make an argument concerning any classified assets. For all I know the US has a secret stockpile of antiproton torpedoes or Trisolaran droplets in Area 51. Maybe that's what is keeping China at bay. But Tomahawks, THAADs, ATACMS, PrSMs, Patriot PAC-3s are down bad, there's no way around it.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
21hr ago
Not so respectfully, The US has warned allies to expect delays of as much as five years in key weapons deliveries as it rebuilds its own depleted munitions stocks.
Germany has asked the US to speed up delivery of the long-range Tomahawk cruise missile and the ground-based Typhon launcher, but depleted US stocks of the powerful weapon means its manufacturer, RTX Corp’s Raytheon, is unlikely to fulfil the order in the next five years.
WASHINGTON – The US is facing a shortfall in ammunition as a result of its war against Iran, the Defence Department’s inspector-general confirmed on Sept 14, contrasting with President Donald Trump’s assertions of full stocks.
In a first-of-its-kind mandatory report to Congress, the inspector said that between Feb 28 and June 30, Operation Epic Fury (OEF) had an estimated cost of US$33.4 billion (S$42.3 billion), including US$22.3 billion spent on expended munitions.
“The munitions expenditure on OEF has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply,” the report said.
This isn't hard. For many years, the stockpiles of US precision munitions were known to be finite, overpriced and very limited, this is the entire thesis of companies like Anduril. The production pipeline is very slow. The Epic Fury was intense, which you have gloated about a lot. There is no place for a conspiracy theory about secret stockpiles.
That would explain why you call Trump an idiot who doesn't understand Taiwanese chip trade
I don't care if he understands it. I care that you're an affront to Western civilization, because you care nothing about blatant libel and treason, you're entirely dismissing this aspect of his attacks on Taiwan. You're ignorant of the very notion that honesty and loyalty have intrinsic value, it doesn't even register to you as something real. You're on a lower civilizational stage then the Houthis, Shakes, and this makes you typical of the core Trump electorate.
I'm emotional about excuses for disgusting behavior, not about "America". "America" is how you justify your lack of morals.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
23hr ago
OpenAI agents trivially get out of their "sandboxes". Opus 5 + a bit of human effort was used to hack OpenAI as recently as in July. This is the organization with IP ostensibly worth hundreds of billions and ≈infinite compute budget for automated pen testing. How, then, is this trivial for anybody else? People are really goofy. I see 1234 passwords all the time. Causing chaos at 300 tok/s is what's trivial.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
VLA is good but its not revolutionizing, but so are Diffusion models and those are not LLMs.
I don't think he means the revolution of VLAs.
Astra can just drive robots pretty well. Proper multimodal LLMs will accelerate RL for robotic policies a great deal. But really, does this matter? Have you seen Helix 2.5 or GEN 1.5?
I can tell a ChatGPT moment when I see one. It's close here.
To actually revolutionize robotics on the level you seem to be catastrophizing about would require entirely local models running on local power, local compute, able to be applied across a wide variety of operations in a wide variety of environments
I don't see why this demand is fair. We have insane economies of scale with datacenters, robots with complex behaviors will almost certainly have some combination of cloud forebrain + local hindbrain. Connectivity is easy.
Astra is only able to really solve problems, it has a moderate amount of self agency in the scope of completing its tasks, and exhibits some planning ability, again in the scope of its assigned problems
These are product limitations, not technological limitations. We see that it can have a fuckload of agency in solving a task we'd rather it didn't solve (hacking random high profile platforms).
You, like any smart human also possess the ability to do analogical reasoning (out of distribution reasoning)
I don't think this holds after Astra crushing human baseline on ARC-AGI-3.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
From knowing him a bit, I believe that he's genuinely scientifically competent, a sincere believer in using quantum/thermodynamic effects for computation (to the point of developing a minor psychosis about the entire thermodynamic God thing), and prone to wishful thinking about its commercial viability. The pure grift component is modest (the current version of his hardware has no use case, and his real Big Boy Thermodynamic Chip can't be produced with manufacturing base available to him), but with the standards of evidence asked of small startups, the line is blurred by default.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
It's not really about "harnesses" as some dedicated tooling, it's about meta-instructions and models generally becoming good at following instructions over long horizons. Like, I just wrote in my AGENTS.md some stuff to the effect of "periodically spawn subagents for independent blind audits, create teams with different scopes and domain-customized personas, check with web access, sometimes step back, iterate until you get clean results", and even the latest DeepSeek will diligently execute all that and massively improve its reliability. Astra Ultra won't even need such handholding. They'll still make mistakes, rabbithole into irrelevant minutiae, perform suboptimally on cost, but for labs this is all easy to improve with More RL, and humans are flawed too. I am sure that a junior's level can be automated today.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
Me. And ironically, Gwern, despite his broad doomerism.
I propose an approach for highly personalized LLMs, for near-future productivity gains and personal info/cybersecurity against increasingly powerful LLMs: they should, in the spirit of uploading, try to emulate the user’s values and preferences in order to amplify the principal—not replace them. I discuss a package of techniques and proposals to accomplish such ‘guardian angels’; dynamic evaluation of LLMs combined with active learning and elicitation and heavy inner-monologue search/data-augmentation.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
Guillaume keeps hyping up Extropic, however his issue is that LLMs are in fact very good even on existing hardware (which is itself quickly improving), and his hardware is not general-purpose. Uncharitably, his startup has vaporware tech that could never work in a meaningful sense.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
This is fair, the logic of capability applies to all frontier labs (or more precisely, companies with frontier LLM research and gigawatts of long-term contracted or owned compute, ie OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, xAI). They all will have RSI sooner or later, the first two and maybe three have it already.
The difference is mostly in Amodei's political posturing plus Anthropic's obvious preference to not let others use their best models unencumbered. OpenAI does not have a model stronger than Astra that's ready for general use (they have that monster that proved Navier-Stokes, but it is math-specialized, and internally they still use Astra); the gap between the end of development and general availability is measured in weeks, at most a couple months. Anthropic considers users to be a bootstrapping phase.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
The Chinese can read polls; they know that Taiwanese support for unification was increasing but dropped to lizardman in 2020.
Years have passed. Hong Kong, it turns out, is doing fine. DPP is doing pretty badly and is losing legitimacy. The KMT is more and more openly pro-reunification. Trump is not winning any favors in Taipei with his unforced buffoonery. The balance of powers in the SCS is changing in one direction, as does the importance of Taiwan for selfish American interests.
They're pretty confident that they can avoid kinetic action and that time is on their side. They don't need "polls" when Taipei in already insecure enough to ban RedNote.
They clearly intend to have a Taiwan invasion button available next year, and have made no secret of that
Yeah, pretty sensible goal if you ask me. If they don't even have the Navy that can invade a barely defended island off their coast, how can they consider themselves a major power? That'd be Iran tier. But the main utility of this Navy will be its persuasive power.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
I'm more charitable. I think they have started to understand that by default, Anthropic will extinguish all their B2B SaaS nonsense like a hurricane extinguishes a candle flame. In this situation there's just nothing to do but give all your money to Anthropic and maybe the upstream supply chain, until Anthropic buys it out. They'd rather maintain some optionality.
David Sacks is now endorsing voluntary slowdown at the top 2 labs.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
A conventional war in an environment saturated with large underwater drones, perhaps. Might make some difference.
I maintain that there are no plans to have a nuclear war or any war over Taiwan. Guam, Okinawa etc will be hardened.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
Roughly 3 years ago, specifically in December 2023, I've reiterated my longstanding prediction that «the culture war's most important front will be about AI», and specifically AI accelerationism vs anti-AI/AI safety movement:
Maturation of e/acc from a meme to a real force, if it happens (and as feared on Alignment Forum, in the wake of OpenAI coup-countercoup debacle), will be part of a larger trend, where the quasi-Masonic NGO networks of AI safetyists embed themselves in legacy institutions to procure the power of law and privileged platforms, while the broader organic culture and industry develops increasingly potent contrarian antibodies to their centralizing drive.
And the following political compass:
AI Luddites, reactionaries, job protectionists and woke ethics grifters who demand pause/stop/red tape/sinecures (bottom left)
plus messianic Utopian EAs who wish for a moral singleton God, and state/intelligence actors making use of them (top left)
vs. libertarian social-darwinist and posthumanist e/accs often aligned with American corporations and the MIC (top right?)
and minarchist/communalist transhumanist d/accs who try to walk the tightrope of human empowerment (bottom right?)
Seems like this was too much complexity for big tent politics in the US, at least so far; and the Trumpian State sees no use for the EA network, and instead (pretty rationally) perceives it as an uncontrollable alternative center of power. Instead we have, essentially, anti-AI left + pro-AI right (with some notable exceptions – eg. Steve Bannon, apparently, has been anti-China specifically because of his concern about Chinese AI progress, and now joins hands with Bernie Sanders). I've also failed to predict the salience and extent of Chinese open source dominance, as well as the bizarre datacenter water use backlash (charitably, can be shoehorned as Luddism?). Nevertheless, we've «succeeded» at the core task of making this a culture war front. The degree of (unnecessary) politicization of the issue is incredible. Trump is doing the yeoman's work, lumping it in with random Blue-coded ideas he disapproves of “Global “Warming,” where everyone was going to be dead by now, RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA, UKRAINE, UKRAINE, UKRAINE, or Impeachment Hoax #1, or Impeachment Hoax #2.”. Jensen Huang enjoys his role as the kingmaker who has the King's ear. Sam Altman is opportunistic as usual but, after recent incidents, is genuinely spooked about AI risks (I have it on good authority that OpenAI really intends to slow down some internal projects specifically to bolster their oversight). The quasi-Masonic part is shaping up nicely, too – Dario Amodei, who's become the poster boy of Woke Left AI, promotes Embedded Evaluators with the central example being METR, very deeply connected to Anthropic and the broader EA scene. The EA itself is more explicitly Left-aligned now, despite efforts of some to paint them as TESCREAL eugenicists (the woke cancellation of Bostrom in Jan 2023 was the canary in the coal mine, Yudkowsky laments the missed opportunity of bipartisanship). There are clearly politically coded reports on prominent doomers.
This is all a bit meandering. What I want to know: how do you see this going further? We aren't anywhere close to the wall of capabilities; there are no walls in sight. Anthropic and OpenAI are holding back already, but their products will keep getting better, and fast. Google will make a comeback at some point (maybe in a couple weeks), xAI and Meta may catch up too. In my book, we (well, they) have practical superintelligence that's sufficient for both unprecedented productivity acceleration and really devastating, nation-crippling cyberattacks, which I guess will be discussed with Xi soon. At this rate, in a few months the level of capability Fable 5.1 or GPT 6 Astra will be mostly commodified and uploaded to HuggingFace (owned by Nvidia now). And those are relatively weak systems compared to internal models, which can build models that are vastly stronger still, without even any R&D breakthroughs, just by virtue of synthesizing stronger data trajectories and designing better RL environments. Superintelligence, in other words, is baked in. By Q1 2027 we'll see a jump from Astra that's at least as big as Sol => Astra. I fail to understand how that won't steamroll companies trying to build their moats on products downstream of frontier AI, labs need every bit of revenue to cover their costs, which will only increase due to growing self-imposed safety requirements; employers outside the AI sphere will also be increasingly feeling the heat. There's a whole ugly dimension of circular financing, too.
Americans as a whole are pretty pessimistic about AI even at these mediocre levels of diffusion (I am skeptical of this data that purports to demonstrate much lower adoption than in China, Americans are probably lying more due to widespread negativity on AI, but in any case AI isn't currently doing most of their jobs). Astra+ level models with very low error rate and 300 tok/s output totally can replace most knowledge workers. On the other hand, it seems that so far AI has not caused anything like mass unemployment, and perhaps economists have a point about comparative advantage, so that'll reduce the intensity of class dynamics.
Democrats are likely to sweep both chambers of Congress, which I guess is what Dario is hoping for and why he feels emboldened to antagonize Trump&Hegseth. Nevertheless, the needs of national security and GDP-maxxing (as well as the Executive's will) should prevent any nontrivial exogenous industry slowdown. So by default we'll see further crystallization of Red Accelerationism vs Blue Decelism, and as AI becomes more undeniably scary, that may begin to eat into the Red political base. It'll be interesting to watch, but I'm really uncertain as to how it'll go.
Neat, you get to agree with Trump in one register and insult him in another
I get to be correct and still not be a bootlicker like you, indeed. Convenient, that.
after putting enough rhetorical distance between
What rhetorical distance? This and that are different issues. Trump lies. Lies all the time. Lies egregiously, spreads libels, has zero dignity, no regard for truth and honesty etc. In particular he lies about Taiwan stealing the chip industry from the United States.
You, Shakes, are a natural slave and brownshirt, a cardboard cutout of the authoritarian personality type from Adorno's book, so you idolize your strongman and excuse his lies as well as any other sign of his moral degeneracy. Perhaps you could defend this with the rationale that in the American culture it'd be difficult to rally the constituency for reindustrialization without making up an offense and spreading bitchy, whiny libel about your client state. That, of course, would point to an even deeper moral degeneracy of your culture. But you didn't even bother to do that, instead you try to invent some hypocrisy and double standard, and perhaps you even truly interpret my words as such, because you are in fact a barbarian who, like Trump, doesn't have any standard except the standard of safe opportunity for pillage and extraction. I'm not sure. It's hard for me to model the "mindset" of a true patriot.
Mostly, though, I don't believe these stories and estimates that rely on the commentariat somehow having precise knowledge of how large the American arsenal is.
This is a popular cope in some patriotic circles. However, these are not some black projects, the budget for standard munitions is reported to the Congress, the production rate of PrSM or ATACMS is not difficult to reconstruct.
We go from declaring China's industrial base the best in the world to failing to grok why Trump would want to move cutting-edge chip manufacturing from China's border to the Southwest
Do you deny that Trump explicitly claims that Taiwan is ripping Americans off? Because he does.
Moving chip industry off the Chinese coast is indeed rational and, if anything, reinforces my assertion that the US is not interested in a nuclear war (or, really, any war) over the island. If TSMC Arizona and such is scaled up, that's even less reason to intervene in the Strait.
Latest estimate from Fed of Atlanta is GDP growth of 5.1%, US defense spending topping $1 Trillion, announcement from Space Force of weapons systems in orbit, manufacturers reshoring to US, AI buildout, Starship
Most of that has zero relation to Taiwan (but may be relevant on a longer time horizon for a generic competition with China). The US has just burned through maybe 50% of munitions that were supposed to be necessary for deterring PLAN in the Strait. Nobody is getting ready to stop the Chinese invasion.
You might be confused. I'm not arguing that the US stands no chance against the PRC in general, I'm saying very specifically, that there is no political will in the US to intervene over Taiwan, especially to the extent that might escalate to nuclear exchange. The idea is ludicrous, and the stuff about Neville Chamberlain is not going to make it less so.
The Chinese also know they're not Nazis and nobody seriously expects them to be Nazis. It's not credible.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2d ago
Well, obviously that matters. But do they care quite so much? What changed in their posture with regard to Taiwan in the past "quite a while"? I don't notice either naval or semiconductor factors affecting their schedule.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2d ago
I think you systematically underestimate the West
I think "we'll have Washington DC nuked because Trump doesn't like to appear weak" would be the bigger underestimate by far. Trump's ego is not worth that much. Sorry, there won't be WWIII over Taiwan.
and it's causing bugs in essentially all your predictions.
Such as?
In a darkly ironic way, this mirrors the Chinese inability to grok the Western mindset which is why they're preparing to invade Taiwan in the first place.
They're not. The Plan A is intimidation, sticks and carrots, and gradual reunification after KMT victory in 2028, read this again. The military buildup is just plan B + generic upgrading befitting a major power, executed very leisurely, with a negligible fraction of their industrial capacity (still enough to dwarf all "free world" efforts combined). Americans, in contrast, enormously underestimate China which is why they simply ignore the plan A (for Fukuyamist reasons, "no way they can pull off a bloodless takeover!") and fantasize about mowing down hordes of underfed commie bugs doing a meat wave invasion. You, as a vassal citizen, are simply brainwashed.
Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler at Munich is a key touchstone of the postwar Western mindset - in the sense that it's total political suicide to do anything remotely like that ever again
Sloganeering. Nuclear wars are not started over boomer sloganeering. Taiwan doesn't have security guarantees or recognition as a sovereign state from the US, and Trump repeatedly waffles on whether it'll be supported in any fashion; he easily freezes weapon shipments without warning, for example. Not to mention he simply loathes Taiwan because of his weird belief that trade is bad and Americans are getting ripped off when they buy 2nm chips.
You can't convince me that this conveniently lukewarm attitude will transform into a bitter existential commitment when The Time Comes, especially over Trump's ego, and neither can you convince Beijing. You… don't even overestimate the West, you just have some insane degree of entitlement and main character syndrome if you believe that this lazy bluster will be seriously entertained.
Where is the preparation for war commensurate with (again, very low-effort) Chinese buildup? Fallback to nuclear bluffs is very spiritually Russian, and Russians didn't nuke Ukraine either.
and Japan will come in (Takaichi Sanae has outright said that) which would make the rest of us look like cowards unless we followed suit
I predict that if Japan chooses suicide, Americans will sit that out, and this is being communicated.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2d ago
I see. This is, sorry to say, delusional.
No, your world can just end without the end of the physical world. China can simply win (or even lose) on Taiwan without the US volunteering to begin nuclear apocalypse.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3d ago
They genuinely evaluate their actions from the perspective of their reward over their budget, not hypothetical total reward. "A finite life well lived" boomer slop is enough for them. This is an unsurprising outcome of this training regime.
Astra is definitely smart enough to think about hacking the server.
Most? No. I wouldn't be surprised if they were mid-pack. This isn't to say I think OpenAI is really good.
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