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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   4599 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 19, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

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Is there any way to "short Ukraine?" I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Ukraine is doomed, or at least they'll be forced to sign a peace deal that gives up some territory. Is there a way to bet on that for significant money (more than just play money on prediction sites)? Apparently Ukraine does have a stock market index, https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/stock-market but it seems uh... sketchy. Maybe buy into the Russian stocks, if that's even allowed?

You could short Ukrainian bonds perhaps? I don't know how to do that though, seems like Advanced Finance. Blackrock also has a 'Ukraine development fund' for post-war rebuilding, though that's a very small part of their operations.

The big problem is that this whole area is dominated by nation-state actors who can shut down trading and act as they please. Blackrock is almost a state actor, they're so big. I'm sure opportunities for profiting exist but they're mostly taken by people who can steal from govt contracts (the guys who get paid to laid down Dragon's Teeth, dump them in a pile and say 'job's done').

There are normal markets where you expect things to change quickly based on new information and then there are Special Economic Operations. Lockheed Martin didn't make such big moves as the war began. It went from 350 to about 440 in late '21 to 22 and it's stuck in that range since, decent but not great. Microsoft did better as a longer-term investment, over roughly the same period. BAE has done much better though, I don't know why. You might well think 'defeat in Ukraine will prompt higher militarization in the West' but the US and the West aren't actually militarizing, not since the war began. Munitions production remains pretty low. The US has been roughly treading water in defence spending after you adjust for inflation. These markets don't make sense and you should tread carefully.

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