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Ok what is the adjusted risk of opening a business? Adjusted for competence that is.
It's more or less a truism that most businesses fail (to break even, forget survive). But most people would probably fail at getting STEM degree as well.
What is the risk for someone like me with a relatively high IQ, high conscientiousness, lack of emotion or lack of any retarded world models, fairly trustable person like me?
I've been thinking this because having met some unsuccessful entrepreneurs, I wouldn't trust them to manage a microwave, if that is my competition, then I might actually not be as doomed to the wage slave life as I think.
The successful ones I met are a better group on average, but not the entire group!
Of course ik ik it depends on a thousand factors, but let's just focus on this now. The average business owner is.... Average!
There's no such category of thing as "opening a business." That description contains stuff that runs the gamet from Buying A Job like opening a real estate agency or a plumbing company, to startup entrepreneurship like trying to start a company around a new innovation, to entering a competitive field like opening a restaurant. Those are all going to have different expectations and definitions for success and failure.
I think a smart person can be fairly certain of success running a low end business if they can acquire the capital on terms that aren't crippling. But even an extremely intelligent person isn't going to be guaranteed to set the world on fire running a hedge fund or opening a nightclub in NYC.
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