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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 27, 2024

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Does progressivism structurally perpetuate the very identity-based prejudice it's supposed to combat?

First off, I'm sure someone smarter has written about this hypothesis, though I'm fairly certain Scott's too polite to verbalize it. Here's my low-effort take.

Imagine you live in a midsized city and are one of about a dozen fashionable owners of a pink VW Beetle. One day, you're on the highway, and suddenly you see the traffic alert display an AMBER alert for a pink VW Beetle. Thankfully, the plate number is very distinct from yours, but you sure wish you had a generic white Camry or F-150 then.

Sadly, the missing child, who turns out to be a super adorable five year old girl with blond hair, remains missing 48 hours later and has captured the national attention. The only lead is an elderly neighbor who swears that she saw a pink VW Beetle leave the cul-de-sac. Friends tease you, and you even make a preemptive joke about your car at a drivethrough. One day after work, you find "pedo" keyed on your car door.

Unfortunately for you, you can't afford to trade in for a different car. Do you 1) pray that the feds catch the predator asap, or 2) organize with the other 11 pink VW Beetle owners to start an activist campaign to combat bigotry against something you have no control over?

It then turns out that your city has an obscure and highly peculiar ordinance that offers extremely strong privacy protection over car ownership. So even after cops find Ring footage that shows a pink VW Beetle did in fact leave the cul-de-sac at around the time of kidnapping, the authorities are powerless to subpoena the DMV for identities of the owners to investigate further. There is public outcry and the city council gathers for an emergency meeting. Do you go to the public hearing to protest the inequity of treating all pink VW Beetle owners as suspects, or do you support getting rid of the law to maximize the likelihood of catching the perp so your life can go back to normal?

I recognize this is an inelegant and reductionist analogy, but it seems to me that the result of progressive policy, broadly speaking, perpetuates all kinds of -isms and -phobias. Take two identical islands: on one, the legislators, cops, and DAs are extremely progressive and go all-in on decarceration and decriminalizing shoplifting etc.; on the other, it's the opposite, with stop and frisks and three strike mandatory sentencing etc. It seems to me that a pink VW Beetle owner who goes shopping or takes a stroll at night in the park on the first island would experience far more unspoken suspicion by fellow citizens than the same teen on the second island. Similarly, a minority new hire at a private company on island two would feel much less imposter syndrome or be treated like a token hire than one on island one (though to be fair, perhaps said minority wouldn't be hired in the first place on island two, with its lack of affirmative action).

Rationally, an actual child predator or shoplifter is incentivized to support laws and policies that make it harder to apprehend and incarcerate them. But shouldn't everyone else oppose them? The sooner the public can trust that all the pink VW Beetles on the road are proven to not be kidnappers, the better! All that gets accomplished by making my car's make/model/color into some kind of protected class is that a) we make it harder to apprehend the bad apples that give the rest of us a bad rep, and b) result in everyone who pays any attention to subtly but resolutely give us a wide berth, especially if they have young children.

What am I missing? Why don't strong majorities of non-predator pink VW Beetle owners vote for policies that make them, as a class, structurally understood to be good citizens?

And if I may put on a conspiracy hat, it seems to me that one of the best ways for the prejudiced white F-150s to ensure that there is a perpetual underclass of pink VW Beetles is to donate to city councilmen to preserve the peculiar privacy ordinance while paying activist white Camrys to sport bumper stickers that insist that they love pink VW Beetles.

Yes, but two comments:

  1. The people who believe in the progressive position tend to be blank slatist and to believe in group rights and ideas like groups "catching up." The analogy doesn't work if these are true.
  2. Under certain conditions, affirmative action is necessary to equalize groups and it actually works. The conditions are roughly a) persistent immutable easily identified groups, b) skills require investment, and c) skills are costly to evaluate. Under these circumstances an equilibrium can develop where groups invest in skills at different rates. This is from Glenn Loury's work on statistical discrimination.

I have no doubt one can develop a model in which affirmative action works to equalize groups and they will not equalize in the absence of it. But I am very doubtful the assumptions of such a model hold in real life.