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I didn't really participate in the Israel-Gaza megathreads while they were live, for the same reason I don't participate in threads about crypto or YIMBYism: it wasn't a topic I knew much about, and I wasn't especially interested in educating myself. As an undergrad I'd attended a pro-Palestine march or two, and harboured some lingering vague, passive, semi-ironic anti-Zionist sentiment as a consequence; I was vaguely aware of the general contours of the history of the Israeli state (Six-Day War, USS Liberty, compulsory military service for men and women); I'd seen Waltz with Bashir many years ago; I recognised the names Netanyahu, Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and PLO; and was under the general impression that a two-state solution would be in everyone's best interests, although I had absolutely no idea what this would look like in practice. While the megathreads were live, the word "Nakba" would have meant nothing to me, and I can't even say with confidence that I knew at the time that Gaza and the West Bank were non-contiguous.
I think my attitude of willing blissful ignorance changed when @ymeskhout posted his article "The Jewish Conspiracy to Change my Mind" and its followup. Like me, he approached the topic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a position of relative ignorance, and after doing some research came away far more sympathetic to the Israelis than the Palestinians.
While Israel-Gaza may not have had much staying power on the Motte as the Current Thing™ (there were only four megathreads posted a week apart), it's been a fairly durable Current Thing™ in the popular discourse, and looks to remain that way for the foreseeable, perhaps at least as long as the Ukraine war did before it. As a result of this, it's hard to avoid encountering new perspectives on the conflict, and I'm finding myself reading countless articles about it every week. Wary of echo chamber dynamics, I'm making a conscious effort to force myself to read articles which are less sympathetic to the Israelis. I've found Freddie deBoer's takes unnecessarily combative and employing some rather queasy Fanon-esque mental gymnastics, but found Sam Kriss's articles on the topic to be some of the best of his I've read. I admire that he's demonstrated an ability to do what so many outspoken anti-Zionists seem unable or unwilling to do: express deep-seated sympathy for the Palestinian cause, up to and including denying the right of the state of Israel to exist, while also acknowledging the shocking brutality of Hamas's combat tactics and condemning them without reservation.
One such Kriss post, "Against the Brave", takes as its thesis that both the Israelis and Palestinians should be ashamed of the horrific, unspeakable cruelties they've inflicted on one another over the decades, and that a shared acknowledgement and a shared shame is the only path towards reconciliation. I noticed that this post was liked by @ymeskhout himself, which got me wondering if, seven months into this conflict, his attitudes have changed since he wrote his "Jewish Conspiracy" posts. More broadly, have any of you changed your minds on any key aspects of the conflict since October 7th? Did any of you think a two-state solution was viable within a generation, but no longer think so (or vice versa)? Has the conflict changed your opinion of Netanyahu, for better or worse?
I've been more convinced by Richard Hanania.
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/israel-must-crush-palestinian-hopes
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/why-palestine-cant-deliver-peace
The tl;dr of those two pieces is that first, Palestinians really, really hate Israelis, even more than Nazis hated Jews, and the conflict will not be able to be diplomatically resolved. And second, even if through a mass PR campaign and enormous concessions Israel managed to get 99.9% Palestinians to accept true peace in the form of either a one or two state solution, just .1% of Palestinians sticking with Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be thousands of active terrorists, which is unacceptable to Israel.
If 99.9% acceptance is not good enough then that is a problem. Expecting 100% acceptance is essentially saying no peace.
Given all the water under the bridge some level of resistance is going to occur. There is simply no way around it.
If that really is Israels position, then all Palestine might as well fight now. Because they are never going to be able to guarantee 100% of people will accept peace and not carry out attacks. Which means there is no way out for them.
Hopefully that isn't Israels position (even if they wouldn't say it) and they understand expecting a 100% peaceable populace after the history here is a pipe dream.
Numbers like 99.9% and 100% numbers are just exaggerations to make a point. Realistically though, you probably need at least 80% of the population to be on board with the idea that it's not worthwhile getting engaged in suicidal conflicts with a neighboring country before that country can accept them as a peaceful neighbor. Otherwise there's too big a chance that violent minority seize power and redirect all resources to renewed war efforts. Frankly I'd be stunned to see any polls suggesting that even 50% of Gazans think it might be worth trying to make a decent society for themselves with what they have, as opposed to continuing pointless attacks against Israel. I believe that's the point Hanania is making - the PA could officially be installed in power in Gaza tomorrow but given the state of that society they'd just be overthrown by Hamas again (with popular support) and who would declare war again etc.
Right, I'd probably agree somewhere about 80%, with higher obviously being better! And right now with the state of tensions Hamas or something like it would just re-emerge, completely agree. Eroding support for Hamas is key here, and history unfortunately suggests that the only way to do that is time and lack of huge incidents.
Support from Catholics for the IRA surged when the UK put in place internment and very aggressive tactics and reduced when the UK pulled back, treated terrorism more as a police action, and began to lift discrimination against Catholics, this led to Catholics becoming wealthier, and with fewer direct reasons to hate the British, IRA support began to drop until Warrington and Enniskillen (where IRA bombs killed children and pensioners) meant their support collapsed. Then the IRA came to the table and accepted a deal they had basically rejected 20 years before.
But there are still attacks today, fewer bombings because those take more organizations but punishment beatings, shootings, kneecapping etc. So I think some level of violence is going to have to be built in to any realistic proposal.
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Most peoples are able to achieve 100% peace. Maybe not 100% agreement, but 100% willingness not to join partisan terrorist groups when they lose the vote. I don't think Palestinians would, I think at least 0.1% would commit terrorist attacks in a way most peoples wouldn't. And unlike other peoples such as the Irish, just being given their own state and some concessions wouldn't be enough to mollify them, I think they'd keep doing it until they controlled all of Israel/Palestine.
I think that 100% peace would never happen either. I also think Palestine will never defeat Israel militarily either, that if they did it'd be just as big of a humanitarian crisis, and keeping this miserable status quo for the next centuries isn't the best was can do. That's why I think the best outcome would be a refugee process where Palestinians officially don't get the right of return, and are relocated to other countries. Hell, I think it'd be cheaper for a lot of places if there was some international cooperation to build the Palestinians a nice artificial island they can live on far way from Israel.
I think history shows you are incorrect. My own home nation Northern Ireland (with parallels to Israel/Palestine) has not.
There are still terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland, there are just many fewer of them than they used to be. So no, the Irish were not 100% mollified by having their own state either. That is my point, after a conflict like this, only being satisfied with 100% peace is a demand that can never be met.
Most peoples after a decades long conflict like this will have some percentage who are so hurt and have lost so much and hate so much that they will try to continue the conflict. That is simply part of humanity, and there is no use pretending it isn't. It applies to the Palestinians, the Irish and everyone else. The only healer is time, a slow de-escalation where fewer people are being radicalized (on both sides) and so the worst of the conflict is decades in the past. Then you might be able to get a majority on board, but there will always be some who will not, until they die off of old age. The paras back home are still shooting, firebombing and kneecapping people 26 years after peace. Just fewer and fewer of them.
I admittedly underestimated the amount of continuing Irish terrorism then. I would still predict that the amount of continuing Palestinian terrorism after any Ireland-like peace deal would be far greater and at a level that would make decreasing tensions impossible.
Right now it absolutely would be, but remember the Troubles simmered down over years, until by the 90's it was much less intense than in the 70's. So it takes decades to lower those tensions, and for those who had family or friends killed to feel less raw, which fuels the whole merry-go-round.
Weren’t the troubles also a notable increase on previous tensions? My admittedly layman’s understanding is that Catholics in Northern Ireland were treated rather badly but content with essentially peaceful protests between Irish independence and Bloody Sunday, and that the troubles were a move to terrorism which eventually died down and got capped, the remaining terrorists being basically just ethnically-organized gangs like the crips or ms-13 at this point.
Well......it depends from when you are measuring. Broadly the civil rights movement in the 60's "provoked" responses from Loyalist paramilitaries. The RUC siding (usually) with the Loyalists then became targets during riots, which led to them moving into Catholic areas in force (or trying at least). This led to bombings and the like pre- Bloody Sunday. But many of the parades were celebrating the Easter Uprising, some 50 years before. So whether you count 1922 to 1966 as an increase in tensions or just a lull is subjective. There were riots in the 30's and 50's and the IRA only called off its Border Campaign in 1962, it just wasn't very effective.
Various anti-Catholic curfews and internment campaigns inflamed tensions as did the Ballymurphy massacre, then Bloody Sunday. It was certainly worse after that, but I don't think we could classify it as peaceful beforehand.
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