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Nasdaq went 14 years without a new high. It’s not uncommon for a market to have droughts of that long usually going from high valuations to lower valuations while still having internal growth. And then doing a new cycle to high valuations. Also I am not positive on what was in the index back then but I would guess a lot of mining and banking back then. Today it’s 30% consumer defensive. It traded 9-10 today. Mining and banking have sucked in any country. Change in industry composition within the index is likely.
I did try to leave it open ended. I was rather confused when I saw it down 10% today. Admittedly, the politics look a little scary for investors here. 10 pe with the U.S. booming and a real desire by U.S. corporations to near shore is my counter.
Yeah, most developing countries only have 3 kinds of stocks: banks, resource extraction, and telecom.
In light of my above comment, that's interesting. Do you have a favorite Mexican stock?
Looks like it’s still 50% materials, banks, and telecom but I bet that is still down a ton. Often it’s 100%.
I only looked today because it was interesting. My guess is if you bought today or tomorrow on election news and you bet that she won’t be a crazy commie and are right you probably get something like a 30% 1 year return. 10-12% discount from the election. I am seeing 10-12% expected earnings growth. And if the market rerates to she is a reasonable person you probably get 1-2 turns in valuation gains from pre-election. Maybe lose a little on the currency since I am guess they have higher inflation. Of course her political bias are not mine but today they priced in she could be dangerous. I do not know if she is dangerous.
On Twitter today is the day people are asking questions. There should be people answer questions in the next few days.
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